cptcatz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Euro and CMC now both showing low pressure at the exact same spot at the exact same time... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Aaaaaand now the trifecta is complete with GFS coming in... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2021 Share Posted October 23, 2021 940mb is how low this has to get to beat this week's pacnw storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 24, 2021 Share Posted October 24, 2021 Long thread offering some thoughts on why the ITCZ and Caribbean activity have been suppressed up until now in Oct... Why some forecasters are convinced the season is over in the Atlantic: ...And how a significant change in the pattern is coming next two weeks that favors better chance of Caribbean activity: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Today marks 100 years since a Major Hurricane hit Tampa Bay directly. The storm of 1921 was the worst in our modern history around here. We are so lucky! And stop laughing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 27, 2021 Share Posted October 27, 2021 In addition to the potential subtropical system evolving as the E coast storm shifts eastward into the central Atlantic, we have a tightly-wound low south of Italy that has subtropical characteristics. It already has produced devastating flooding in Sicily yesterday. Facing lots of shear now, but that should weaken Thu into this weekend when this system has a decent chance of becoming fully tropical. These "Medicane" systems appear to becoming more common vs. the 1970s to early 1990s, especially the more intense ones that produce hurricane force winds. Medicane Ianos in Sep 2019 dropped to 984 mb and reached peak intensity 100 mph (!) sustained winds in the coastal waters near sw Greece just before making landfall, according to a recent paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-20-0274.1/BAMS-D-20-0274.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display. Another weaker one in early in Oct 2019 tracked unusually far east through the Mediterranean and reached Israel and Egypt with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Outside chance for a brief tropical depression or low-end TS in the eastern Atlantic this weekend into early next week. Would likely be unprecedented per climo so late east of 40W (I couldn't find any TS+ in NHC best track back to late 1800s, but it doesn't include TDs). The fact that we even have a *potential* system to discuss in the eastern MDR so late is nothing short of remarkable. Likely the lingering Atlantic Nino is playing a role, with ITCZ tugged south of usual, allowing waves to stay over more favorable SSTs/upper level winds than is typical for this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 Thread on #94L which is gaining convection and will likely be named soon as a subtropical storm. It could briefly complete transition to tropical in the next day or two, before shear increases. Wouldn't rule out the possibility it becomes a strong STS or hurricane by mid next week as shear decreases again, but first it has to weather the rapid ramp-up in shear over the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 29 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Good afternoon ClS. Thank you, I always wanted to know how WW007’s Reaper prepped for the cold season. As always ……. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 My bet was a dead August and a fired up October/November. It appears my weather tarot was misread... The cards don't lie, but interpretation is subject to human error. "Human Error" is my middle name sometimes! Ready for that very rare snowfall in Tampa Bay. My camera is ready. But mets are predicting a long dry winter down here. If so, hope it stays warm. Cold and dry is no fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: That's basically the Atlantic Basin in a La Nina! XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 If October 2020 has been crazy with the Atlantic in terms of named storms, then 2021 would be the Flip Side, Literally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: That's basically the Atlantic Basin in a La Nina! XD Eh? Nina is supposed to favor the Atlantic, and in particular the western basin in October (although not always, see 2017). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 9 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Eh? Nina is supposed to favor the Atlantic, and in particular the western basin in October (although not always, see 2017). It's the Hurricane Trackers that have been waiting for possibly the LONGEST time EVER! I've never seen this before, But all it takes is one storm to change this trend . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 I've seen worse named storms than 94L right now, I guess it must still have frontal features or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: I've seen worse named storms than 94L right now, I guess it must still have frontal features or something ASCAT posted on S2K Proved it's still connected to a front right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2021 Share Posted October 30, 2021 7 hours ago, Intensewind002 said: I've seen worse named storms than 94L right now, I guess it must still have frontal features or something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 GEFS really doesn't want to give up on this Caribbean storm later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 On 10/31/2021 at 2:54 PM, cptcatz said: GEFS really doesn't want to give up on this Caribbean storm later this week. No posts on this since Sunday, I'm assuming its a dud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Looks like the season's a wrap. So much for the La Nina late season action... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 On 10/27/2021 at 11:29 PM, jconsor said: In addition to the potential subtropical system evolving as the E coast storm shifts eastward into the central Atlantic, we have a tightly-wound low south of Italy that has subtropical characteristics. It already has produced devastating flooding in Sicily yesterday. Facing lots of shear now, but that should weaken Thu into this weekend when this system has a decent chance of becoming fully tropical. These "Medicane" systems appear to becoming more common vs. the 1970s to early 1990s, especially the more intense ones that produce hurricane force winds. Medicane Ianos in Sep 2019 dropped to 984 mb and reached peak intensity 100 mph (!) sustained winds in the coastal waters near sw Greece just before making landfall, according to a recent paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-20-0274.1/BAMS-D-20-0274.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display. Another weaker one in early in Oct 2019 tracked unusually far east through the Mediterranean and reached Israel and Egypt with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The Mediterranean subtropical cyclone, named Apollo, was one of the longest lasting ones I can recall - almost 10 days. It also developed tropical characteristics for a time while it was close to Sicily and Malta: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Wanda has been quite a resilient, long-lasting system for so late in the year in the subtropics. Has a chance to strengthen into a strong TS or lower-end hurricane Sun-Mon if it gets pulled north by a strong trough and thus moves parallel to shear vector, as shown by several recent GFS and HWRF runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 That's impressive.. another storm hits Europe, -PNA until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 A very disappointing season outside of Ida, guess we were due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 22 hours ago, Scorpion said: A very disappointing season outside of Ida, guess we were due. Jfc. "We only had one strong Cat 4 landfall this year." 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Even if you take out all the “junk” storms we still had above normal ACE. Numbers wise it was certainly above average though you could argue maybe 5-6 storms BARELY met naming convention or were named for such a short period of time it almost feels wrong counting them, but I regress. Throw in a bonafide cat 4 US landfall and another major strike in Mexico and at a minimum this was a significant hurricane season. The long trackers and a rare Canadian hurricane impact also gave the season a little more credit. Only thing that docks it a few notches in my opinion was the lack of a Caribbean season especially in October and a few long dry spells with no storms of significance to track. I’ll give it an above average grade of a B+. It would’ve cracked an “A” with just 1 October hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 I wonder how long it's been since we've had a period this inactive in the atlantic? I know if Wanda hadn't formed it would have been the first October to have no storm formations since 1994 which was a year before the current active phase of the atlantic started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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