Prospero Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Seems a little odd for this far into October with nothing to watch. The fluffy clouds against a crisp deep blue sky down here looks more like the high country in Colorado during July than a typical October in Florida. I am enjoying of course. It is gorgeous. But kind of longing to follow something even if I have to even pick up my yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 I'm calling the season over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 The lack of October activity for a Nina has been very unusual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 1 hour ago, floridapirate said: I'm calling the season over. I think it's reasonable to put a fork in October. November may have a surprise ala Kate 1985. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The lack of October activity for a Nina has been very unusual This month was supposed to be very active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 GEFS has been pretty consistent showing a wave entering the Caribbean the last week of October. Maybe this one will finally verify? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 15, 2021 Share Posted October 15, 2021 9 hours ago, cptcatz said: GEFS has been pretty consistent showing a wave entering the Caribbean the last week of October. Maybe this one will finally verify? We can hope. I know that is inappropriate, but still it is always a long wait before the next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 We can hope. I know that is inappropriate, but still it is always a long wait before the next season.Really? Man I must be on a different wavelength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 About time for me to shut it down for the year. See y’all next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: About time for me to shut it down for the year. See y’all next season. Gfs shows something at 384 but we know how accurate that is lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: About time for me to shut it down for the year. See y’all next season. Soon I'll be going into my "Hope it snows down here in Tampa Bay this year" mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, Prospero said: Soon I'll be going into my "Hope it snows down here in Tampa Bay this year" mode. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 This would be the first year in a long time that nothing formed in October. Still a long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 On 10/16/2021 at 9:44 AM, WxWatcher007 said: About time for me to shut it down for the year. See y’all next season. Good evening WxW. The Sweeper over performed in the inaugural year. As always … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 10 hours ago, Amped said: This would be the first year in a long time that nothing formed in October. Still a long way to go. Very true, Amped! Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30. 1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin TC. I’d be very surprised if the season concludes without at least one additional TS. In contrast, I’ll be very surprised if the U.S. mainland experiences another hurricane landfall, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 In early October, there were indicators of an active Caribbean around mid-to-late October. I had expected several more hurricanes including one more major hurricane by closing of shop in November. Well that appears to all be unlikely at this point. Beyond a marginal convective disturbance southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the basin appears to have shut down. Can't rule out one more hurricane but the potential is just not there for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 On 10/17/2021 at 9:56 PM, ncforecaster89 said: Very true, Amped! Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30. 1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin TC. I’d be very surprised if the season concludes without at least one additional TS. In contrast, I’ll be very surprised if the U.S. mainland experiences another hurricane landfall, however. 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 On 10/18/2021 at 10:52 PM, Maxwell03 said: 2006? You’re correct, as I totally missed that particular season and the 2015 season. That’s what I get for relying on memory lol Thus, its actually only been 6 years (feels like so much longer) since there’s been a season without an October formation. Thanks for catching my aforementioned error. Interestingly, they (2006, 2015) were both El Niño years, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Pretty impressive statistic here. I had thought the entire tropics, not just the Atlantic Basin, but globally, seemed too quiet. But no Category 3+ hurricanes in such a long period of time for early-to-mid Autumn is rare. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 On 10/17/2021 at 9:56 PM, ncforecaster89 said: Very true, Amped! Not since the 1993 season has there been no TS or H formations after September 30. 1994 for last “October” without a NATL basin . And those were winters with record breaking snowfalls in New England...hmmmm (snow weenie mode activated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 10 hours ago, Windspeed said: Pretty impressive statistic here. I had thought the entire tropics, not just the Atlantic Basin, but globally, seemed too quiet. But no Category 3+ hurricanes in such a long period of time for early-to-mid Autumn is rare. Which coincides with the Blizzard of 1978...(snow weenie mode intensified) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Ofc 18z GFS shows fantasy hurricane way out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 54 minutes ago, yoda said: Ofc 18z GFS shows fantasy hurricane way out Nice incoming trough also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 Three GFS runs in a row now showing a hurricane forming near Purto Rico... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 5 hours ago, cptcatz said: Three GFS runs in a row now showing a hurricane forming near Purto Rico... Continues on the 12z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 9 hours ago, cptcatz said: Three GFS runs in a row now showing a hurricane forming near Purto Rico... any timing on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Gefs is honking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is honking Indeed, 12Z EPS/18Z GEFS/0Z GEFS about as busy as anytime recently late in their runs in the W Caribbean. Early Nov climo supports this to some extent with still a respectable 13 geneses over the 10 day period 11/1-10 vs about the same rate during the 11 day period 10/21-31 of 15..so this area may bear watching, folks, as that's one every 13 years on average with the last one being Ida of 2009: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Euro ensembles are getting on board. Seems pretty likely we'll see another hurricane next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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