Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 GFS shows 30 to as high as 50 knot SW 250 mb flow, as a consequence, the heaviest rain is always NW of where a center tries to form, and it never organizes enough to be a TC. Only a few GEFS ensembles close a 1004 mb low. Probably not going to happen. GFS ensemble mean says heaviest rain NE Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GFS shows 30 to as high as 50 knot SW 250 mb flow, as a consequence, the heaviest rain is always NW of where a center tries to form, and it never organizes enough to be a TC. Only a few GEFS ensembles close a 1004 mb low. Probably not going to happen. GFS ensemble mean says heaviest rain NE Gulf. A sloppy system fits climo, so I’m not surprised the guidance has trended to a messier system. That said, there’s still a lot to figure out. BoC tends to be a good place for TC genesis so I’d expect at least a depression to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 JB says watch out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 12, 2021 Share Posted June 12, 2021 Really watch out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 Unusual year here in Florida. Where we live in Gulfport it is not uncommon for May and June to be bone dry even when some areas of Tampa Bay and east get storms. But to be in mid-June and sit outside with low humidity is out of the ordinary. No mosquitoes, no sweating. Feels like late September, still hot but dry. Normally May and June are miserable with humidity even when the storms form over us and move inland without giving us rain. That's really not happening yet. A few thunderstorms popped over central Florida today, but not the same. As an observer and a passionate storm watcher, we're off to a different start than the past few years. Might not have any influence as far as the the overall tropical storm season, but definitely not a typical year for us in Pinellas County, Florida with humidity and moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: JB says watch out. He has the east coast in a high risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He has the east coast in a high risk Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 13 hours ago, Tezeta said: Lol What's so funny ? I mean I had 2 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What's so funny ? I mean I had 3 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. What was the third? Fay and Isaias I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: What was the third? Fay and Isaias I remember. You are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 14 hours ago, MJO812 said: He has the east coast in a high risk Bastardi is better than people give him credit for, he even called for a below normal impact year a couple of seasons ago, but he does seem to have a bit of a built in bias for seeing East Coast threats. Almost a decade since Sandy, Northeast is 'due' for another significant storm, although, having taught probability to middle school math students, 'due' isn't scientific. (After 10 coin flips in a row landing on heads, the next one is still 50/50 unless something is wrong with the coin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: What's so funny ? I mean I had 2 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. It’s just the same thing every year with snow and tropical storms. Isaias last year was certainly impactful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 13, 2021 Share Posted June 13, 2021 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: What's so funny ? I mean I had 2 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. Are there records or archives of "TC Warnings"? They so often jump all over the place within days of any storm. Every year I plan to track models, but already won't catch up this year. LOL Tampa Bay has been in numerous GFS model tracks lasting about 6 hours at a time for possible significant 2021 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: What's so funny ? I mean I had 2 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. Follow the money also, your tropical storms were barely real 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 Laura posed a remote, possible mild threat to NYC for a moment, but a stronger cold front came through and was more of a weather event. Laura appears to have been on the local news for a few days even though no tropical warnings were posted. A severe weather warning did come up with the cold front though after Laura went south with little affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 System east of Hatteras looks like a storm on radar and satellite. NHC gave it a cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 14, 2021 Share Posted June 14, 2021 We have TD2 coming at 11:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 15, 2021 Share Posted June 15, 2021 Any thoughts on the mess off of the Yucatan Peninsula that is not 92L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Prospero said: Any thoughts on the mess off of the Yucatan Peninsula that is not 92L? I don't know but the outflow of it provided a full day of much needed rain for us in south Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Busy start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 On 6/12/2021 at 8:31 PM, Prospero said: Unusual year here in Florida. Where we live in Gulfport it is not uncommon for May and June to be bone dry even when some areas of Tampa Bay and east get storms. But to be in mid-June and sit outside with low humidity is out of the ordinary. No mosquitoes, no sweating. Feels like late September, still hot but dry. Normally May and June are miserable with humidity even when the storms form over us and move inland without giving us rain. That's really not happening yet. A few thunderstorms popped over central Florida today, but not the same. As an observer and a passionate storm watcher, we're off to a different start than the past few years. Might not have any influence as far as the the overall tropical storm season, but definitely not a typical year for us in Pinellas County, Florida with humidity and moisture. Interesting, over near Daytona it’s been bone dry, but humid for the last two weeks last few years the humidity did not build until July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 SAL engine cranking up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 3 hours ago, Stormfly said: SAL engine cranking up! Not uncommon in June and July, if it is still happening in August, than the MDR is suppressed. Earliest genuine CV storm I remember is Hurricane Bertha, formed early July. Last year we had hazy skies in Houston from SAL. That was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 I kinda hate CV storms anyways. Let’s hope we can get a homegrown system into the gulf or Carolinas before august 20th instead of counting on the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Tezeta said: I kinda hate CV storms anyways. Let’s hope we can get a homegrown system into the gulf or Carolinas before august 20th instead of counting on the MDR. The late bloomers are usually the ones IMBY (Texas), as far West as we are, most CVs curve long before getting here. Depending on how one defines a CV storm, almost/not quite a major (a 2.75 if the SS scale was to the hundredths) Ike could be a CV, although it was well defined over Africa, it was past the CVs before being classified. Atlantic MDR storm, anyway. But most of the big ones, Alicia, Carla, Harvey, were late bloomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 On 6/12/2021 at 4:30 PM, ldub23 said: JB says watch out. Actually, May 1995 did not have a low tornado count. Quite the opposite with 391 tornadoes, the 7th highest monthly total on record. Be careful with taking statistics at face value on social media. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Yesterday someone (I don't remember the name) Twitter posted 15 day 12Z Euro ensemble, there were two sub 1000 (980 to 1000) mb lows (almost 4% of 51!) that had crossed the Yucatan from the Caribbean. Only a couple of very weak lows on free Weathernerds ensembles in Caribbean day 10, so probably 10-15 day development. Anybody know if the monsoon trough/CAG is expected to be down there past day 10? I am between PPV models at the moment. Yes, I know 2 Euro perturbations past day 10 is not high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 23 hours ago, vortex95 said: Actually, May 1995 did not have a low tornado count. Quite the opposite with 391 tornadoes, the 7th highest monthly total on record. Be careful with taking statistics at face value on social media. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_1995 "The season peaked in May with a near-record of 392 tornadoes that month. June brought over 200 tornadoes, including several that became famous for their videos. The death total for the year was relatively low at 30 (fewest since 1986)." Wonder if JB said the wrong year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Yesterday someone (I don't remember the name) Twitter posted 15 day 12Z Euro ensemble, there were two sub 1000 (980 to 1000) mb lows (almost 4% of 51!) that had crossed the Yucatan from the Caribbean. Only a couple of very weak lows on free Weathernerds ensembles in Caribbean day 10, so probably 10-15 day development. Anybody know if the monsoon trough/CAG is expected to be down there past day 10? I am between PPV models at the moment. Yes, I know 2 Euro perturbations past day 10 is not high confidence. I don’t think the CAG will stick around, but it does look like there may be another Caribbean or Gulf window as another CCKW potentially passes through in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 GFS-Euro-CMC all showing signs of our first CV storm developing next weekend with the GFS being most bullish tracking it all the way to the Caribbean... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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