Prospero Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 Dead and Company cancelled their Florida shows next week, so I guess I'm ready now for an early October storm in the Gulf as I need some entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 12z GEFS still coming in strong. Not really concerned with no other model guidance as GFS has really been the king of cyclogenesis this year while all others have lagged behind. I'd be very surprised if nothing comes of this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Oct looks to be rather dead. Seasonwise i would grade the excitement level at a C-. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Oct looks to be rather dead. Seasonwise i would grade the excitement level at a C-. According to you every month has been dead but somehow we're up to W in the alphabet. I'm very close to getting rid of you. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 According to you every month has been dead but somehow we're up to W in the alphabet. I'm very close to getting rid of you. He's either a troll or a cry baby when we aren't observing TCs shelling out death and destruction in real-time. A score of C- for this season? lol... At any rate, it's Oct. 2nd. We've had seven hurricanes, four majors (two landfalling as a major), a landfalling upper Category 4 with unfortunate loss of life and significant damage to infrastructure that will be in the tens of billions USD. An ACE of 130+ with two months to go.Any questions?The MJO will phase active for the WATL in about another week that will persist into late month. This spells trouble for late season Caribbean / GOM activity close to land, or homegrown TCs even after the MDR declines. We can hope for shear over the SECONUS with Autumn troughs acting as a bit of protection, but perturbations in amplified waves might also time right for something to gain latitude under a favorable atmospheric environment, so we'll just have to play it by ear.Additonally, La Nina appears to be kicking into high gear now which should help keep late seasonal mid-to-upper level VWS somewhat abated across the Caribbean due to a limited EPAC convective envelope.I expect a few more hurricanes and at least one more major hurricane before the season closes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 2, 2021 Author Share Posted October 2, 2021 Yeah, I was saying about 9 more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Rjay said: According to you every month has been dead but somehow we're up to W in the alphabet. I'm very close to getting rid of you. Would be ok with that. It would be one thing if he justified his complaints or had logic to them but instead it is always downing the activity with no logic or justification, it adds nothing to the conversation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Anyone downplaying this season is a joke. Numbers, ACE, major landfalls… I mean come on 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 4 hours ago, Rjay said: According to you every month has been dead but somehow we're up to W in the alphabet. I'm very close to getting rid of you. Please do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 Oct looks to be rather dead. Seasonwise i would grade the excitement level at a C-.La Nina, brah.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted October 2, 2021 Share Posted October 2, 2021 5 hours ago, ldub23 said: Oct looks to be rather dead. Seasonwise i would grade the excitement level at a C-. I disagree. The navy is showing signs of hurricane development off the gulf coast. This hurricane season has been severe with an ACE index of 128, well above climo for the ENTIRE season (105). It is very possible if not likely when all is said and done, we end up with over double that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 6 hours ago, ldub23 said: Oct looks to be rather dead. Seasonwise i would grade the excitement level at a C-. Dude you are a troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 CPC's MJO EWP finally let me down. Worked pretty well all season in predicting active periods, A bit over a week ago it was saying after the first week of October, upward motion would be favorable in the Caribbean and W Atlantic. Latest has pushed that back to mid-month. As far as the boring C- season goes, high end Cat 4 hurricanes, last letter of the standard alphabet left, much of the coast directly or indirectly affected, I'd hate to see an A+ season. I assume Miami and NYC would need direct Cat 5/Cat 4 hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Huh? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 44 minutes ago, AChilders said: Huh? Very active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 1 hour ago, AChilders said: Huh? ...and that's not even a happy hour run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 6:42 PM, George001 said: I disagree. The navy is showing signs of hurricane development off the gulf coast. This hurricane season has been severe with an ACE index of 128, well above climo for the ENTIRE season (105). It is very possible if not likely when all is said and done, we end up with over double that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 On 10/2/2021 at 6:00 PM, NorthHillsWx said: Anyone downplaying this season is a joke. Numbers, ACE, major landfalls… I mean come on For folks on weather boards, I totally agree. To the other 99.7% of the population, the season has been a dud. Sure, the season has had numerous named storms, but outside of 2-3 storms & Ida, most people couldnt even name one that caused issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, floridapirate said: For folks on weather boards, I totally agree. To the other 99.7% of the population, the season has been a dud. Sure, the season has had numerous named storms, but outside of 2-3 storms & Ida, most people couldnt even name one that caused issues. I agree with this No one really cares about Ace except weather enthusiasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 2 hours ago, floridapirate said: For folks on weather boards, I totally agree. To the other 99.7% of the population, the season has been a dud. Sure, the season has had numerous named storms, but outside of 2-3 storms & Ida, most people couldnt even name one that caused issues. Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet). In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone. But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence. 2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America. I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019. With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years. Definitely wouldn't call it a dud. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet). In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone. But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence. 2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America. I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019. With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years. Definitely wouldn't call it a dud.2003 had Isabel, which did a number on the coastal regions of the Mid-Atlantic while weakening due to its large size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 I don’t really get the argument here. If people can name 2-3 storms that’s a pretty significant year… Ida alone makes for a bad year given it **checks notes** caused widespread severe to catastrophic damage in Louisiana and the megalopolis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 3 hours ago, cptcatz said: Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet). In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone. But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence. 2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America. I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019. With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years. Definitely wouldn't call it a dud. You forgot Ike in 2008 along with Gustav 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Tropical? No expert, but non-circular isobars to the S of a low often show where the front it, at the discontinuity. I think that is frontal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 8 hours ago, floridapirate said: For folks on weather boards, I totally agree. To the other 99.7% of the population, the season has been a dud. Sure, the season has had numerous named storms, but outside of 2-3 storms & Ida, most people couldnt even name one that caused issues. 8 US landfalls including two Hurricanes and a major plus a major (one of the most expensive and damaging hurricanes in history) landfall in Mexico and a strong, rare hit on Newfoundland? I am struggling to see how this alone is a dude, not including the fish storms and ACE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 8 US landfalls including two Hurricanes and a major plus a major (one of the most expensive and damaging hurricanes in history) landfall in Mexico and a strong, rare hit on Newfoundland? I am struggling to see how this alone is a dude, not including the fish storms and ACE In a poll of 100 Americans who do not identify as a weather enthusiast, do you think more than 3 would know about a major landfall in Mexico and/or a strong hit on Newfoundland? For board followers, its been a great year, for average Americans with little interest, its been quiet. There's a difference between the two groups, that's all I'm getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 3 hours ago, AChilders said: You forgot Ike in 2008 along with Gustav I mentioned I'd put 2008 in front of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Definitely a very nasty hurricane season. If you put a gun to my head and asked what seasons in the last 20 years of tracking were "epic" in my memory, I'd categorize them as something like this: EPIC 2004, 2005, 2017 ALMOST EPIC 2008, 2018, 2020, 2021 Alot of people might chastise me for not including 2020 in the "epic" category, and it certainly was in terms of named storms. But I don't know...there was something about 2020 that was just barely lacking. I can't figure out what it was. I think September was sort of a letdown. We had the slew of fish (Omar, Paulette, Rene, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred) and Hurricane Sally which I actually thought was worse than it ended up being. I was kinda surprised the name wasn't retired. 2004, 2005, and 2017 had those "violent" epic long-trackers. Frances, Ivan, Irma. Something different about those years. The Charley and Harvey Cat 4 explosions in August. Funny enough: They're the only three seasons to hit over 200 units of ACE for a hurricane season the last 20 years. 2020 didn't. Maybe that's what I mean by the difference in the intensity of the seasons. 2004, 2005 and 2017 just had a different vibe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Been a while since we've seen NOAA map like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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