2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think despite a not super favorable MJO at peak season, with Nicholas and #95L (looking decent), it hasn't been dead.  EWP is apparently rather simple, but using it since July, it offers useful hints.  It has been fairly consistent, it was suggesting in August that mid-September might be a bit slow (certainly not season cancel slow), and it has been showing October, ever since it forecast that far, as turning favorable.  October is Caribbean season, often big ones, like Mitch and Opal, and if they get out of the Caribbean, they are often big time US weather-makers.

 

 

[Floydbuster]

I'm surprised at the lack of Cape Verde hurricanes. We get one a year, but I recall many over and over back in the 1990s. 

[cptcatz]

18 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm surprised at the lack of Cape Verde hurricanes. We get one a year, but I recall many over and over back in the 1990s. 

I think it's time to strip the central Atlantic of the MDR name and give it to the western Caribbean/southern Gulf.  That's the new Main Development Region.

[SnowenOutThere]

24 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I think it's time to strip the central Atlantic of the MDR name and give it to the western Caribbean/southern Gulf.  That's the new Main Development Region.

It does seem to be taking over recently. Wonder if when the MDR appears more inactive the storms remain as waves over it and then take off in the Caribbean making the difference even more pronounced. 

[CheeselandSkies]

53 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm surprised at the lack of Cape Verde hurricanes. We get one a year, but I recall many over and over back in the 1990s. 

1995-96 and then again '98-'99 were really the only years like that. Up through 1994 were inactive years save the lone standout cyclones in certain years (Bob, Andrew). 1995 also didn't really have any significant U.S. landfall threats from Cape Verde hurricanes, with Luis and Marilyn striking the LAs before recurving and only home-grown Opal making U.S. landfall at 100kt+. 1996 had Bertha, Edouard, Fran and Hortense. 1997 was quiet, 1998 had Bonnie, Danielle and Georges, as well as quick recurvers Ivan and Jeanne (the second-to-last use of those names!), the infamous Mitch being a Caribbean brew. 1999 had Cindy, Floyd and Gert.

 

[Windspeed]

I think it's time to strip the central Atlantic of the MDR name and give it to the western Caribbean/southern Gulf.  That's the new Main Development Region.

I think some of this is due to regardless of MJO phase placement or status of the WAM, when there is a pronounced -AMO, it tends to keep CV long-trackers somewhat in check. There is a balance though. All it takes is for a subtle swing to +AMO or similar cooling of the upper-central Atlantic pool to kick in more MDR favorability. We may see something close over the next month.

Additonally, there should still be a robust wave train coming off Africa late into October at least. So again, as has been the recent trend over the last half-decade, we may see a loaded back end to the season.

A couple of interesting tweets that suggest such potential:

[NorthHillsWx]

Neither 95L nor 96L look anywhere close to becoming more organized this morning. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Neither 95L nor 96L look anywhere close to becoming more organized this morning. 

All the models don't have anything 96L

[cptcatz]

CMC is still showing 95L developing near the Bahamas. If it can somehow find low shear in that area then it's still on the table. Still over a week out so lots could change. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The longer 95L takes to develop, the further south it will track as a weak wave will remain embedded in the tropic easterlies rather than a stacked system with a tendency to gain latitude. This may have impacts down the road in keeping that system from being a “fish” storm. Some of the more northern solutions the last couple days had the system as a developing tropical storm at this point, not a weak wave. If it holds off on development until the area of the Antilles, it will likely hold much further south and west than previous modeling. Guidance has shifted south and westward significantly this cycle given the waves present lack of organization

[ldub23]

 

[Prospero]

September is going quick. I stop in now and then, work is very busy right now, so barely following this forum.

October and November is what I expected to be intense. But hey, my posted numbers are the worst of the batch. A "watcher" who thinks he is intuitive cannot compete with real mets.

I'm hoping for a quiet nice October in Florida with a few outdoor plans in place. November? Let it rock!

 

[MJO812]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The Texas season is winding down.  We get the first real cold front (actual temp drop of 10F or more, not just a slight DP drop and wind shift) on the Equinox, at least latest forecast, and plus or minus a week is on schedule.

 

The Westerlies have returned.  It'll be hard to get us.

 

1940s October Cat 2 near Freeport (Nicholas area) and 1989 October half-cane Jerry means it isn't impossible, just it is rather unlikely

[Floydbuster]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The Texas season is winding down.  We get the first real cold front (actual temp drop of 10F or more, not just a slight DP drop and wind shift) on the Equinox, at least latest forecast, and plus or minus a week is on schedule.

 

The Westerlies have returned.  It'll be hard to get us.

 

1940s October Cat 2 near Freeport (Nicholas area) and 1989 October half-cane Jerry means it isn't impossible, just it is rather unlikely

Welp they got a hurricane landfall, so it's checked off the list.

[Amped]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

The bar must be really high.  We've had several US landfalls this season.  It hasn't been boring.  

[Normandy]

Unless we have multiple C4 / C5 hurricane strikes on US soil....season ain't exciting enough.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

CPC's empirical wave propagation model, is apparently not sophisticated but has been doing a decent job all season of suggesting times of activity and the lack thereof, is suggesting a busy first half of October, systems that develop that time of year have a hard time not affecting land.

 

Been a very active season, 95L storm will be Peter soon, almost every part of the Atlantic and Gulf coast has seen at least some affects of tropical or post-tropical systems, including a high end Cat 4, not sure what people would have done with some of the 1980s seasons.  1992 would have been a snoozer, except Andrew.  I guess a season is a bust if we don't use the entire alphabet.

[Tallis Rockwell]

This season has been exciting, the past couple of weeks, however, have been boring.

[Floydbuster]

Definitely a memorable season. Cat 3 Grace into Mexico, Cat 4 Ida into Gulf Coast, and Cat 1 Nicholas into Texas.

However, there are two beautiful waves out there that could become awesome long-tracked Peter and Rose and they do look like they will remain out at sea, so it keeps the September "excitement" for trackers down.

[TheDreamTraveler]

People are spoiled I think. Didn't we just go through a period of over a decade with no category 3 or stronger strikes on the CONUS? Same with there being no cat 5's for almost a decade as well lol

[jconsor]

Some insights into the lack of US landfalling hurricanes (along with no major hurricane landfalls) between 2006 and 2015, and the recent pronounced increase in US landfalling hurricanes.
 

 

[Prospero]

18 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Definitely a memorable season. Cat 3 Grace into Mexico, Cat 4 Ida into Gulf Coast, and Cat 1 Nicholas into Texas.

However, there are two beautiful waves out there that could become awesome long-tracked Peter and Rose and they do look like they will remain out at sea, so it keeps the September "excitement" for trackers down.

I'd be happy with a strong beautiful Hurricane Rose to watch out at sea.

[Floydbuster]

8 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I'd be happy with a strong beautiful Hurricane Rose to watch out at sea.

That ain't happening. My guess is low-end TS at best.

[olafminesaw]

Hmm

[Prospero]

30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

That ain't happening. My guess is low-end TS at best.

OK, how about a beautiful low-end Tropical Storm Rose? I'll take it.

[GaWx]

The latest storm on record back to 1851 to have genesis east of 55W in the MDR and to later hit the CONUS is September 25th: storm #9 of 1893

  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png

  Next latest E of 55W geneses were both on 9/21: Inez of 1966 and Lili of 2002. Then Gloria 9/16/1985 and Georges of 9/15/1998.

  After 9/25, all geneses on record back to 1851 that later hit the CONUS were W of 55 W. So, when looking at model consensus with the lack of CV threats on them now, climo now says that the CONUS will very likely be safe from any genesis E of 55 W the rest of this season. So, potential remaining threatening genesis locations are mainly just E of or near the LAs, the Caribbean (mainly W half), the GOM, and the SW Atlantic north of the GAs to off the east coast.

[Normandy]

I could not locate the Dorian thread so I posted it here…. But Oh my ****ing god at this video from marsh harbor.  Video is required viewing

https://youtu.be/Ar8Usv-Kwvs

[jconsor]

39 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The latest storm on record back to 1851 to have genesis east of 55W in the MDR and to later hit the CONUS is September 25th: storm #9 of 1893

  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1893.png

  Next latest E of 55W geneses were both on 9/21: Inez of 1966 and Lili of 2002. Then Gloria 9/16/1985 and Georges of 9/15/1998.

  After 9/25, all geneses on record back to 1851 that later hit the CONUS were W of 55 W. So, when looking at model consensus with the lack of CV threats on them now, climo now says that the CONUS will very likely be safe from any genesis E of 55 W the rest of this season. So, potential remaining threatening genesis locations are mainly just E of or near the LAs, the Caribbean (mainly W half), the GOM, and the SW Atlantic north of the GAs to off the east coast.

Nice post! There were a lot more October landfalls along the US East Coast from SC northward to New England from the late 1600s to the early 1800s than since 1850.
I was able to find at least two that hit the East Coast in Oct and probably originated east of 55W, based on historical accounts:

The 1804 "Snow hurricane" that caused severe damage from NJ to New England on Oct 9. Chenoweth who did a reanalysis of 1700-1850 cites this storm as having tracked north of Puerto Rico.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane

Further details on damage in the northeast US: https://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/temp/HHITProject/HHITyears/1804/1804.htm

1706 tropical storm that tracked from Barbados to NY, with damage from wind and rain reported in NY/CT on Oct 15.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricanes_in_the_18th_century

Chenoweth paper: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Chenoweth/chenoweth06.pdf

BTW and for entertainment purposes only, the 12z CFS is fixin' to break the record you mentioned. It shows a TS forming on Sep 27 just west of the CV islands and tracking west to a position just NE of the Leeward Islands Oct 2-3, then rounding an anomalously strong W Atl ridge before hitting eastern New England on Oct 7.