MJO812 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: GFS and Euro are trash in the long term. How do you still base your opinion on their 10-15 day forecast? It makes you look like an idiot after you're wrong time after time. He never learns 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid conditions. Won't be a thing in the tropics to discuss in a week. Horrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Won't be a thing in the tropics to discuss in a week. Horrid. Good luck getting anything in the US with the troughs that are modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good luck getting anything in the US with the troughs that are modeled. If, as GFS most runs and about half the ensembles, have a TC in the Gulf in 8 or 9 days, trough position only means is it Texas/Mexico, Louisiana/Mississippi, or Alabama/Florida? Little escapes the Gulf. Northeast US, late September (1038), late October (Sandy), just off top of my head, and I am sure as the pattern transitions to Autumn, steering will be constantly changing. Oh, empirical MJO prediction has been fairly good this year, Florida could have an interesting October from Caribbean systems,. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: If, as GFS most runs and about half the ensembles, have a TC in the Gulf in 8 or 9 days, trough position only means is it Texas/Mexico, Louisiana/Mississippi, or Alabama/Florida? Little escapes the Gulf. Northeast US, late September (1038), late October (Sandy), just off top of my head, and I am sure as the pattern transitions to Autumn, steering will be constantly changing. Oh, empirical MJO prediction has been fairly good this year, Florida could have an interesting October from Caribbean systems,. Agree Troughs will become deeper as we head into October which can spell trouble if one phases with a trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: He never learns This idiot seems to agree with me. I said a month ago Sept would be suppressed. We are all often wrong including those who said the pattern in the peak season was "ominous" for the east coast. Turned out just the opposite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I expect October to act like September. Lag effects of Nina pattern that developed. Favorable MJO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I expect October to act like September. Lag effects of Nina pattern that developed. Favorable MJO Eps has a wave train coming back mid to late September . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 About potential W Carib/W Gulf system GEFS has been showing late this week into this weekend... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, ldub23 said: This idiot seems to agree with me. I said a month ago Sept would be suppressed. We are all often wrong including those who said the pattern in the peak season was "ominous" for the east coast. Turned out just the opposite. This tweet from Dr. Ventrice is strongly misleading IMHO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 There’s no suggestion Sept will turn out quiet. First, Larry is looking to end up being a hurricane for 10+ days and a MH for most of that period. In terms of ACE, that’s strong activity by itself….lots of energy for the first 13+ days of the month! Second, if the EPS has the right idea, there will be only a couple of days between the demise of Larry and the next MDR system or two. Third, there’s the threat of Gulf activity over the next 10 days or so. That may produce 1-2 more TCs. Fourth, ensembles go out only through 9/20. That still leaves 1/3 of the month that can’t even be seen yet. Fifth, there usually are one or more TCs that aren’t even hinted at far in advance on models. Sixth, there’s still the very real chance of a far eastern MDR TC, sharp recurve or not, near 9/11-12 from the suggested very strong AEW still forecasted over Africa in a few days and then moving offshore ~9/11. So, there really is no indication of anything less than an active Sept based on objective measurements. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 This tweet from Dr. Ventrice is strongly misleading IMHO. Agree. Doesn't matter if the WATL is suppressed if you already had genesis in the MDR from the convectively active phase over the WAM. Just means it's less likely to be homegrown genesis. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Can definitely see 91L developing into a tropical depression or weak storm as it nears the coast given GEFS ensembles Imo the one to really watch is the CAG system which GEFS, GFS, and CMC have been relatively consistent on developing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 I can't follow the forecast GFS Gulf system back w/ 850 mb vorticity, I *think*, following PW back, this might be the origin of the system the GFS develops. It reaches the area of higher vort/already high PW (edit- in far S Caribbean/coast SA), merges, and something develops. Looks harmless now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 Per the 12Z GFS and CMC, that strong AEW over Africa that especially the Euro but also the ICON have been developing on 9/11 just offshore never recurves but instead stays weak and moves WSW in the E Atlantic. You can actually trace the vorticity/precip associated with it on the 12Z GFS then move W all of the way to the Lesser Antilles on 9/17 followed by it moving WNW into the Caribbean but staying very weak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 46 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I can't follow the forecast GFS Gulf system back w/ 850 mb vorticity, I *think*, following PW back, this might be the origin of the system the GFS develops. It reaches the area of higher vort/already high PW (edit- in far S Caribbean/coast SA), merges, and something develops. Looks harmless now. Seems to me that convection is not directly related to what the GFS develops, but just some thunderstorm activity with no real convergence. If you look carefully at the GFS vorticity, it looks like the system the GFS forms in the W. Caribbean is the combination of a tropical wave currently in the SE Caribbean between Curacao and Trinidad, along with a vorticity spoke extending SW from Hurricane Larry. See satellite wind analysis below to see the weak convergence associated with the tropical wave. (As you probably recall, I described the process by which a new tropical cyclone can form from a vorticity spoke extending SW from a recurving TC in this thread:) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 6 hours ago, cptcatz said: GFS and Euro are trash in the long term. How do you still base your opinion on their 10-15 day forecast? It makes you look like an idiot after you're wrong time after time. It’s the Greatest failure of the internet. Instead of increasing the opportunity for greater information exchange it spawns trolls who contribute zero but get their loser shits and giggles from interrupting serious and solid exchanges of truly valuable info. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 31 minutes ago, GaWx said: Per the 12Z GFS and CMC, that strong AEW over Africa that especially the Euro but also the ICON have been developing on 9/11 just offshore never recurves but instead stays weak and moves WSW in the E Atlantic. You can actually trace the vorticity/precip associated with it on the 12Z GFS then move W all of the way to the Lesser Antilles on 9/17 followed by it moving WNW into the Caribbean but staying very weak. The plot thickens... there is clearly an upper trough/weakness in the subtropical E Atlantic that has been trending stronger past few days, but only a stronger system would really feel the effects of this. GFS has that trough as well and it's even deeper than the ECMWF, but a sounding clearly shows mainly easterly winds from 500 mb and below around the tropical wave as it comes off the African coast, with SE winds above 500 mb. (Note it comes off the coast about a day earlier then the ECMWF). The ECMWF/EPS have a known significant bias to show "landcanes" that are too strong inside W Africa and then coming off at an unreasonably high latitude. This bias was on display seen even with a relatively weaker wave like the one that is just moving off the African coast today. See how ECMWF trends about 350 mi SW with the center of vorticity vs. runs three or four days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 4 hours ago, ldub23 said: This idiot seems to agree with me. I said a month ago Sept would be suppressed. We are all often wrong including those who said the pattern in the peak season was "ominous" for the east coast. Turned out just the opposite. That guy also said September 2017 would be dead and... It wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: That guy also said September 2017 would be dead and... It wasn't It was the opposite! That's when the Triplets of Terror showed up . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 52 minutes ago, jconsor said: The plot thickens... there is clearly an upper trough/weakness in the subtropical E Atlantic that has been trending stronger past few days, but only a stronger system would really feel the effects of this. GFS has that trough as well and it's even deeper than the ECMWF, but a sounding clearly shows mainly easterly winds from 500 mb and below around the tropical wave as it comes off the African coast, with SE winds above 500 mb. (Note it comes off the coast about a day earlier then the ECMWF). The ECMWF/EPS have a known significant bias to show "landcanes" that are too strong inside W Africa and then coming off at an unreasonably high latitude. This bias was on display seen even with a relatively weaker wave like the one that is just moving off the African coast today. See how ECMWF trends about 350 mi SW with the center of vorticity vs. runs three or four days ago. Interesting thoughts! And just like that, the 12Z Euro doesn't recurve it. Instead it starts out like it will recurve, but then it turns back W, then WSW, and then SW while weakening. Also, it comes off about 12 hours earlier than the prior run and closer to the timing of the GFS/CMC though still slower than those. These run to run changes and model differences show me that it is still too early to make a definitive call on what this AEW moving off ~9/11 will or won't do. After all, it is still ~6 days away from the coast and a lot can change before then. Old Euro run (0Z) is along the African coast moving back inland to the NE: New Euro run (12) is 400 miles to the WSW about to turn SW and weaken: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 14 hours ago, GaWx said: 0Z EPS is still very active in the MDR late in the run/something to watch for late Sept: 12Z EPS for same time is not nearly as active as 0Z run: (Edit: But regardless, I'm still keeping a wary eye on the vigorous AEW progged to move off Africa near 9/11. Earlier in this run, you can see a significant SW shift in the mean of this wave along with an increase in the number of members that don't recurve and instead that turn WSW vs the 0Z run.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 On topic- 18Z GFS suddenly spins up 91L in 3 days (not a closed low yet). No idea what happens after, 500 mb pattern, it will get swept quickly off the East Coast, I suspect, if it develops much at all. Long Island born (Doria, Belle) and live in Houston (Allison, Rita scare (12 hours no power, MIL lost her fruiting avocado tree, but nothing like expected locally) Ike, Barry (no rain, but winds started serious wildfires W of here), then TS Harvey and Imelda), I lose local interest, because, Freeport in 1940s and Jerry as exceptions, season ends with Equinox, but 1938 was an obsession growing up, Sandy, of course (missed Gloria in the Navy), I stop looking for 10 day storms in 3 weeks, but I'll follow any ECUSA threats all year. Then Nor'Easter season. 1978 alone, 2 school cancelling storms. Still very excited, but no power for 2 weeks after Ike, people at my church dying in Harvey, relatives flooded out by Allison, now more love/hate confliction now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 W Car system is so far South it crosses BoC quickly, and doesn't develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 5, 2021 Share Posted September 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: W Car system is so far South it crosses BoC quickly, and doesn't develop. Only a couple of GEFS disagree, no W Carib threat to the Gulf in a week-10 days, a Beta type school cancelling for a day system would have been fun, but now looks like we survive the Equinox, the unofficial (1940s and Jerry, yes, I know) end of Texas season, a week w/o electricity, no adrenaline this year, but no power sucks. Louisiana to Maine, season still happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 The same strong AEW currently over central Africa that the models have for many days been having move off 9/10-11 and becoming a TC almost immediately on a number of Euro and Icon runs is the strongest on the new GFS run that I can recall. Even though it weakens, it is now the 3rd GFS run in a row with a trackable AEW getting into the Caribbean 9/17 and is the most energetic it has been when getting there (strong wave). This once again gets to Cuba/FL Straits/S FL late on 9/20 and tells me once again that this could conceivably threaten the Caribbean ~9/17-20 followed by the CONUS starting ~9/20. Climo says that a scenario like this isn’t at all far-fetched for an AEW moving off ~9/10, especially in La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 The 6Z GFS/GEFS and EPS are continuing the idea that the AEW moving offshore Africa 9/10 (GFS) or 9/11 (Euro) (is the same AEW) may very well eventually be something to contend with. The 6Z GFS is the 4th run in a row that gets it near FL ~9/20 as a strong wave. Also, this run suggests there may be another active wave a few days behind it. In addition, note the strong E US ridge being suggested for around that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 A convergent boundary has setup in place north of the Yucatán that is associated with 91L's northern axis. Low level flow is southerly but with an absence of any notable cyclonic rotation. However, if this boundary can persist with strong convection and increase the gradient, an MCS may develop, which could increase potential of development as the feature drifts north into the central GOM. Shear appears too strong over the BOC for anything to get going for the original low pressure. If something is to organize, it's going to be out of that region of strong low level convergence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 Here we go regarding that same AEW moving off Africa ~9/11: 1. ICON has it stronger and further out than earlier runs as it moves west at the end of the run. It is already pretty far north at 20N, which would suggest a good chance at an early recurve, but keep in mind that the models are jumping around as they try to figure out how strong this AEW will be and where it will track as evidenced by lots of run to run changes 2. UKMET finally has it as it just moved to within its 144 hour range. This track, too, would mean a likely early recurve but note that this has it a TS right off Africa and a near H within 24 hours, both of which could be too strong: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.6N 15.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 11.09.2021 120 15.6N 15.7W 998 39 0000UTC 12.09.2021 132 17.3N 18.7W 992 50 1200UTC 12.09.2021 144 18.9N 20.6W 983 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2021 Share Posted September 6, 2021 12Z GFS is the 5th run in a row taking this same 9/10-11 emerging AEW into the Caribbean ~9/18 as a result of it staying weak. This wave is what is causing the convection at the Lesser Antilles on the far right in this image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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