2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[cptcatz]

Weird, because that seems to contradict this map

[Roger Smith]

CONTEST: There's a seasonal contest open in this forum, deadline is 06z June 11th (end of Thursday June 10th in other words). 

Late entries are accepted with increasing time penalties. The contest rewards accurate hurricane and major hurricane forecast numbers at a higher rate than count numbers based on last year's boondoggle. 

[etudiant]

11 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Weird, because that seems to contradict this map

Think there is enough wiggle room in the specifications to allow that kind of difference in presentation.

A 1 degree anomaly relative to a baseline that is shifting is hard to hang one hat on.

It seems that we are just getting to the point where we can get really comprehensive SST measurements globally. Sadly, the clock starts now for this good data, all the prior data relies on sampling that then gets extended, so any anomaly discussions are still subject to wide error bars.

I frankly think it is very impressive that so much has been learned despite the really spotty data. but I'm hopeful we'll  do much better once we have comprehensive data over long  periods. With luck, by 2050 it will all be well figured out.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Early season IMBYism, but some support from op Euro and some GFS ensembles.  Day 10 ECENS from Weathernerds.  Tracking back, looks like something tries to form on the monsoon trough one side of Central America or the other...

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Early season IMBYism, but some support from op Euro and some GFS ensembles.  Day 10 ECENS from Weathernerds.  Tracking back, looks like something tries to form on the monsoon trough one side of Central America or the other...

GFS keeps popping up with storms then drops off. Our typical afternoon thunderstorms in central-west Florida are still lacking which means the moisture in the ground to feed the sea-breeze collisions is low right now and it might be a late rainy season for us if we don't end up in a drought. Of course that can change in a few days time, but not in the next week or so at least.

Could be a slow start to the TS season this year as well which only amps the energy for later on. Just a thought, based on a decades long lifetime of wish-casting.

 

 

 

[cptcatz]

Interesting GFS run this morning

[Modfan2]

9 hours ago, Prospero said:

GFS keeps popping up with storms then drops off. Our typical afternoon thunderstorms in central-west Florida are still lacking which means the moisture in the ground to feed the sea-breeze collisions is low right now and it might be a late rainy season for us if we don't end up in a drought. Of course that can change in a few days time, but not in the next week or so at least.

Could be a slow start to the TS season this year as well which only amps the energy for later on. Just a thought, based on a decades long lifetime of wish-casting.

 

 

 

We have been dry here in SE FL as well

[WxWatcher007]

14 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Early season IMBYism, but some support from op Euro and some GFS ensembles.  Day 10 ECENS from Weathernerds.  Tracking back, looks like something tries to form on the monsoon trough one side of Central America or the other...

The pattern mid month looks ripe for some development to take place. The ensembles have been showing the potential for almost a week now, which is meaningful IMO at such a long lead. 

Models aside, climo, the SST profile, and coming favorable conditions to the Gulf/Western Caribbean brought by the MJO and perhaps a CCKW favor a window for development. We're in wait and see mode but I think something will pop. 

[FLweather]

On 6/5/2021 at 10:16 PM, Prospero said:

GFS keeps popping up with storms then drops off. Our typical afternoon thunderstorms in central-west Florida are still lacking which means the moisture in the ground to feed the sea-breeze collisions is low right now and it might be a late rainy season for us if we don't end up in a drought. Of course that can change in a few days time, but not in the next week or so at least.

Could be a slow start to the TS season this year as well which only amps the energy for later on. Just a thought, based on a decades long lifetime of wish-casting.

 

 

 

My thoughts as well. Alot of these small retention ponds have pretty well dried up.

Been a rather lack luster start. About a week ago seen a small brush fire off of 27 south of Leasburg, FL. 

I just hope that we don't have a drought then bam.... Hurricane after hurricane. Something similar to 2004. 

[FLweather]

Looking at the models today. Canadian and GFS.

I'd say it's a safe bet to place. From Louisiana to the big bend of FL in about 10 days.

At minimal a disorganized sub tropical storm. Worst case a organized full blown TS min hurricane.

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

A little teaser from this morning's op Euro.

[Prospero]

Cristobal gave us over 4 inches of rain last year in Gulfport, FL on June 6th. We could sure use at least part that right now!

[LoboLeader1]

Trend back towards La Niña by August-September

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1402257856494190601

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I think Ryan Maue used to post here.  I think.

https://weather.substack.com/p/watching-gulf-of-mexico-disturbance?r=21wlp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

23 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

A little teaser from this morning's op Euro.

New 12Z is a step back, ~40 knot 1001 mb TS, but a step forward from the 0Z Euro.  I dropped WxBell, they tripled my rates.  AccuWx cheap but models are 'meh'

[Prospero]

Seems like it has been a long off-season, even though it has not been that long. At least now its fun to look at models every day and be back watching this forum for comments. Any teasers are worth their value in excitement, even random 14 day out models that come and go. Tampa Bay has already been in a strong storm a few times in 2021 models! (That is definitely preferable to being in a real life strong storm here.)

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

Seems like it has been a long off-season, even though it has not been that long. At least now its fun to look at models every day and be back watching this forum for comments. Any teasers are worth their value in excitement, even random 14 day out models that come and go. Tampa Bay has already been in a strong storm a few times in 2021 models! (That is definitely preferable to being in a real life strong storm here.)

If we're having fun with the random 14 day out models, the 18z GEFS shows a signal for another western Caribbean storm possibly heading towards your area...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro goes from nothing to something very quickly, with 12 mb deepening in final 6 hours (hr 222 to hr 228) as it approaches landfall.  993 mb and winds almost 50 knots.

[FLweather]

9 hours ago, Prospero said:

Seems like it has been a long off-season, even though it has not been that long. At least now its fun to look at models every day and be back watching this forum for comments. Any teasers are worth their value in excitement, even random 14 day out models that come and go. Tampa Bay has already been in a strong storm a few times in 2021 models! (That is definitely preferable to being in a real life strong storm here.)

Not trying to get OT.

But I've been working out there in Clearwater off of SR 60 and McMullen Booth Road by the Ruth Ekcard performing arts center.

I can imagine it gets really sketchy out there with anything higher than a cat 1. Very low country out there.

Very obvious that with the right conditions and trajectory it will flood quickly from the storm surge.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Fantasy range GFS but a TS that landfalls midway CRP and GLS, and crawls the next 2 days w/ excessive rain.  GFS has been off and on showing it, but putting it off, but the now developing a week from now.  Somewhere North Mexico to Florida Panhandle could be looking at double digit inches of rain weekend after next.

[FLweather]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Fantasy range GFS but a TS that landfalls midway CRP and GLS, and crawls the next 2 days w/ excessive rain.  GFS has been off and on showing it, but putting it off, but the now developing a week from now.  Somewhere North Mexico to Florida Panhandle could be looking at double digit inches of rain weekend after next.

Honestly the GFS and Canadian have pretty much been in agreement with showing something in the southern GOM.

Even last night's 0z run both show at least a  TD/ Low end TS making landfall some where on the Texas Coast.

[dan11295]

We have seen enough slow moving storms in Texas the past few years.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 hours ago, dan11295 said:

We have seen enough slow moving storms in Texas the past few years.

500 and 700 mb GFS heights mean this will not be a Texas issue, but again, a week away and I have not seen ensembles or the op Euro. But the trend is obvious in 0Z ensembles and 6Z models and ensembles.  Murphy's Law, current floods in Mississippi.  Not claiming that is science.  

[Tezeta]

We need to use some infrastructure bill money to start buying people out of SW LA. Just leave it barren. It’s clear that climate change is doing its thing and the end point is uninhabited land. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, Tezeta said:

We need to use some infrastructure bill money to start buying people out of SW LA. Just leave it barren. It’s clear that climate change is doing its thing and the end point is uninhabited land. 

Looking at the unnamed hurricanes going back to the 19th Century on the LCH web page, SW Louisiana is probably barren because the 'chenieres', inland sand bars, offer only small protection against surge.  This also looks like a fresh water flooding event, and models, while it is a way out, seem well clustered on the Northern Gulf.  Mississippi, especially, doesn't need this.  Texas had a recent wet period that has gotten most of the coastal regions out of drought, but Louisiana and Mississippi have had a wet year.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Looking at the unnamed hurricanes going back to the 19th Century on the LCH web page, SW Louisiana is probably barren because the 'chenieres', inland sand bars, offer only small protection against surge.  This also looks like a fresh water flooding event, and models, while it is a way out, seem well clustered on the Northern Gulf.  Mississippi, especially, doesn't need this.  Texas had a recent wet period that has gotten most of the coastal regions out of drought, but Louisiana and Mississippi have had a wet year.

I have worked as a 'service hand' a few miles from Cameron, the land was purposed for cattle ranching (and the occasional gas or condensate well), I saw the skeleton of a calf that got too close to the bayou.  I have also flown offshore out of Cameron, which appears to exist mainly to service the offshore oil and gas industry.  Per Wiki, the town has a population of 406.  Cameron, the largest parish in Louisiana, has less than 8,000 people.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro ensembles have  a few perturbations in Texas, but if I ran a book, I'd offer about -500 on the Northern, not the Northwestern, Gulf coast.  (I don't run a book)  Edit to Add, the +400 or so on Texas would be an interesting high risk/high reward bet.

 

[Tezeta]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I have worked as a 'service hand' a few miles from Cameron, the land was purposed for cattle ranching (and the occasional gas or condensate well), I saw the skeleton of a calf that got too close to the bayou.  I have also flown offshore out of Cameron, which appears to exist mainly to service the offshore oil and gas industry.  Per Wiki, the town has a population of 406.  Cameron, the largest parish in Louisiana, has less than 8,000 people.

To be fair I meant Lake Charles too. I know it’s a little inland but look at what the last year has wrought. Time to start winding down our presence on the coasts. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

38 minutes ago, Tezeta said:

To be fair I meant Lake Charles too. I know it’s a little inland but look at what the last year has wrought. Time to start winding down our presence on the coasts. 

LCH is about as far inland as HOU is from the Gulf, TPA and MIA are on the Gulf or Atlantic.  Parts of LCH would have flooded worst case, worst case parts of SE Houston (SE of the SE portion of the I-610 loop highway, and some places South of I-10.  Places near the Ship Channel.  The cost of relocating chemical plants and refineries would be steep.  Although a Houston suburb did disappear after Hurricane Alicia.  Ground water pumping lowered the ground level on a place bordering the bay at the outlet of the San Jacinto, the last place that needs to lower ground level.  https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Brownwood-The-suburb-that-sank-by-the-Ship-4379765.php

 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers has developed over the Bay of 
Campeche and the adjacent land areas.  Slow development of this 
system is possible over the next several days as it moves slowly 
and erratically, and a tropical depression could form in this area 
by the middle of next week.  Due to the slow motion, regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Central 
America and southern Mexico.  Please consult products from your 
local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven/Latto