MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Dry air and shear conditions making conditions unfavorable for any possible TC along the east coast. There will be more troughs present. That will be the biggest factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs I love hurricanes but...hard pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoistWx Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Gfs Yeah... can someone else take one for the team on this one? I can throw in some boudin and crawfish to sweeten the deal lol. Pretty sure the city just came by recently to do their "last" round of debris pickup for Laura/Delta. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, MoistWx said: Yeah... can someone else take one for the team on this one? I can throw in some boudin and crawfish to sweeten the deal lol. Pretty sure the city just came by recently to do their "last" round of debris pickup for Laura/Delta. Trends don't look good at all for parts of the gulf. Steaming bath water there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Lt. Dan and Forrest country is getting absolutely decimated over and over. These storms have been avoiding Houston and New Orleans by pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Looks like the real season is about to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 hour ago, MoistWx said: Yeah... can someone else take one for the team on this one? I can throw in some boudin and crawfish to sweeten the deal lol. Pretty sure the city just came by recently to do their "last" round of debris pickup for Laura/Delta. Of course this is just a model run, but my goodness...to hit that same area again would just be cruel. Like why that particular spot?? I mean it's like there's a giant hurricane magnet at Port Charles, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 12z runs across the board seem to blow this GoM storm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Looks like the real season is about to begin. Wait, I thought you said earlier in this thread that the season was a bust and September was going to be nothing-ville? You also said Grace was gonna fall apart. Anyways, after 99L impacts the Gulf Coast, we will turn our attention to the MDR. GFS finally got on board along with CMC and Euro for a strong developing system. GFS has it approaching the Bahamas at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Wait, I thought you said earlier in this thread that the season was a bust and September was going to be nothing-ville? You also said Grace was gonna fall apart. Anyways, after 99L impacts the Gulf Coast, we will turn our attention to the MDR. GFS finally got on board along with CMC and Euro for a strong developing system. GFS has it approaching the Bahamas at the end of the run. Strong cold front plus a tropical storm equals fun if it phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe some of the Baja moisture can get entrained into my region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Euro going all in on this MDR storm. Would be a massive ACE maker regardless where it goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 A vigorous tropical wave/disturbance is pushing into Florida right now. Winds sustained near 20-30 mph and tropical storm force gusts here in SE FL. It's only just getting started, main impacts look to hit tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 A vigorous tropical wave/disturbance is pushing into Florida right now. Winds sustained near 20-30 mph and tropical storm force gusts here in SE FL. It's only just getting started, main impacts look to hit tonight. The system you are referring to is actually the pv/upper level low retrograding into the GOM this week. This is the system partly responsible for aiding in lift/instability and divergent flow aloft for invest 99L to the south in the Caribbean, and potentially influencing its track into the GOM this weekend. You'll get some gusty thunderstorms, no doubt. Upper cold cores make for some strong lapse rates and convection over Florida this time of year. But any potential for a tropical disturbance developing underneath that feature is negligible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 The GFS continues to forecast another storm will form in about the same location (Caribbean) once Ida moves inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 Any of the mets in here think the Mid Atlantic has a chance for action, or are we done for the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 26, 2021 Share Posted August 26, 2021 57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Any of the mets in here think the Mid Atlantic has a chance for action, or are we done for the year? I don't know much about tropical, but...I can't imagine there's a definitive answer for that right now. Just gotta watch and wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On 8/26/2021 at 1:12 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Any of the mets in here think the Mid Atlantic has a chance for action, or are we done for the year? This is an interesting look. The negative NAO looks to be breaking down and i think thats the remains of Ida off the southeast coast. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021082800/slp8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, ldub23 said: This is an interesting look. The negative NAO looks to be breaking down and i think thats the remains of Ida off the southeast coast. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021082800/slp8.png Beautiful combo. We fail on an I storm and it breaks down the NAO just in time for us to transition into autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Beautiful combo. We fail on an I storm and it breaks down the NAO just in time for us to transition into autumn. Who knows. If the Nao goes positive and Ida gets trapped off the southeast coast then it could regenerate and head north. Also, that cane on the Euro might move a bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 CMC's forecast for Labor Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Who knows. If the Nao goes positive and Ida gets trapped off the southeast coast then it could regenerate and head north. Also, that cane on the Euro might move a bit more west. The northeast is going to get the remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Do we need threads for every birdfart swirl out in the middle of the atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, hlcater said: Do we need threads for every birdfart swirl out in the middle of the atlantic? Yes. It's a weather board, where weather is discussed. Shocking concept I know 4 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 15 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Yes. It's a weather board, where weather is discussed. Shocking concept I know fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, hlcater said: fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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