2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Inudaw]

The System near Bermuda looking pretty healthy on visible.. 

[WxWatcher007]

Surprised nobody posted. Will likely be a TD soon. 
 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to updated the discussion 
of the low-pressure system northeast of Bermuda.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on 
Tropical Depression Grace, located over the northeastern 
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the 
Dominican Republic. 

1. Updated:  Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm 
activity has become better organized this afternoon in association 
with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about 
160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for continued development, and if these development 
trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the 
low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, 
near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are 
forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, 
and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island 
later tonight. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Brown

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

10 hours ago, ldub23 said:

I agree with JB. In this type  of season the  low  from outside the tropics is the  one to watch.

You were just saying this entire month was dead lol

[turtlehurricane]

There’s a tropical cyclone at each corner of the Bermuda Triangle!

[yoda]

Sounds like a break is coming 

 

[cptcatz]

Not even a fantasy cane going into September on the GFS? Pretty weak first half of the season. 

[Vice-Regent]

46 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Not even a fantasy cane going into September on the GFS? Pretty weak first half of the season. 

But we got Henri... quality over quantity.

[Windspeed]

SAL outburst is crossing the MDR. This should help suppress any AEWs during a period of limited activity following Grace and Henri. The next potential CCKW should be here around the first week of Sept. leading into peak. So we should have a quiet week or two at least barring any subtropical development or an overly strong AEW off the West African Monsoonal region.

[Windspeed]

[LoboLeader1]

 

[madwx]

The Euro ensembles show 3 areas that could develop over the next 10 days.

1.  There is a robust wave inland over Africa that will emerge in the Atlantic by Monday.  

2.  Another wave will emerge after that and looks to progress at a lower latitude.

3.  They also have a disturbance forming over the SW Caribbean sea and developing as it heads NW toward the Yucatan and the GOM.   There is actually a fairly robust signal for this.

 

The GEFS show similar solutions and agree on development in the SW Caribbean.  The main difference is that the GEFS develop the lead wave over the E Atlantic that the Euro ensembles don't have.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, madwx said:

The Euro ensembles show 3 areas that could develop over the next 10 days.

1.  There is a robust wave inland over Africa that will emerge in the Atlantic by Monday.  

2.  Another wave will emerge after that and looks to progress at a lower latitude.

3.  They also have a disturbance forming over the SW Caribbean sea and developing as it heads NW toward the Yucatan and the GOM.   There is actually a fairly robust signal for this.

 

The GEFS show similar solutions and agree on development in the SW Caribbean.  The main difference is that the GEFS develop the lead wave over the E Atlantic that the Euro ensembles don't have.

I might have been Tomer Burg (sp?) who tweeted something.  Tagged Dr. Papin.  A Central American Gyre is rare in August, but he said several models showed one developing, with cyclones triggered in both the East Pac and Caribbean,  Euro ensembles from 0Z seem to support that,

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show a tropical cyclone in the western gulf at the end of the month.  That's pretty good agreement considering it's still over a week out.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show a tropical cyclone in the western gulf at the end of the month.  That's pretty good agreement considering it's still over a week out.

12Z ECENS from WeatherNerds says the Gulf is exciting next week.

[Prospero]

52 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

12Z ECENS from WeatherNerds says the Gulf is exciting next week.

The Low off the Tampa Bay coast has my attention.

Texas might be busy.

Maybe Josh should rent a place for a month or so in the Yucatan and set up some web cams?

[Amped]

The 18z GFS now shows a western gulf storm day 8-10.

[cptcatz]

Long range GFS has continually showed a system forming in the central Caribbean and moving north across Cuba towards Florida. This would coincide with peak climo season as well as the strong CCKW expected to be overhead.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

0Z was interesting, a storm deep in the BoC followed by another CAG storm that is the next Hurricane Ike in 13 days.  Too far out in model land to worry about a second storm generated by the gyre, but enough model and ensemble agreement on the first one next weekend.  Course and strength unknown, but Ida likely, and while a few Texas storms, Mexico seems heavily favored by the ensembles.  But at a week, is Alabama safe?  Hoping to see smart people like yconsor start posting on this.  Will follow Dr. Papin closely, expert on the CAG.

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/21/2021 at 3:01 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS, Canadian, and Euro all show a tropical cyclone in the western gulf at the end of the month.  That's pretty good agreement considering it's still over a week out.

Yeah--I haven't looked until now, but that looks like the one to watch. 

[Eskimo Joe]

If you want excellent data visualization, check out Tomer Burg and Sam Lilo on Twitter.

[MJO812]

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah--I haven't looked until now, but that looks like the one to watch. 

Gfs has the next 2 possible systems in the gulf

[Windspeed]

While we're all going to be looking to the NW Caribbean and GOM for potential development into the weekend, currently there is a nice AEW south of the Cabo Verdes forecast to make its way across the MDR this week. It's not in a horrible environment at the moment, but conditions are only marginal across the MDR. Some SAL and stable air mass to contend, but it bears watching.

[madwx]

In addition 97L was just designated in the Central Atlantic around 17N 37W.   Models are somewhat bullish on development as it turns N and then NE with no major impacts on land over the near future.

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

While we're all going to be looking to the NW Caribbean and GOM for potential development into the weekend, currently there is a nice AEW south of the Cabo Verdes forecast to make its way across the MDR this week. It's not in a horrible environment at the moment, but conditions are only marginal across the MDR. Some SAL and stable air mass to contend, but it bears watching.

Hard to tell but looks like that may be the wave that makes it into the Caribbean which the GFS has been trying to develop next week. 

After that, Euro, GFS, and CMC are all pointing to a long tracker MDR storm moving off Africa next week. 

[MJO812]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Most of the ensembles are farther South, but if there is still a weenie of the year award, I nominate myself.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Most of the ensembles are farther South, but if there is still a weenie of the year award, I nominate myself.

 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

The GFS had been pumping out lots of gulf systems a couple days back as well. The signal is there

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Most of the ensembles are farther South, but if there is still a weenie of the year award, I nominate myself.

What did Houston due to the weather gods

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

What did Houston due to the weather gods

I don't know, but I ripped up carpets and padding for my wife's cousin, and her grandparents, after Allison, almost a week no electricity and 2 weeks no school after Ike, a week no school after the Tax Day floods, 2 weeks no school after Harvey, and February, 12 or 18 hours a day rolling blackouts for 5 days during the freeze.  A teacher I worked with used up all her sick days and was going unpaid because multiple burst pipes wrecked her home and she had to meet with contractors and insurance people.