2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Kevin Reilly]

Fred leaving NW islands of Hatti but is struggling.  Dry air and westerly shear due to upper level lows one to its northeast and another northwest near Florida both of these upper air lows and sheared environment dropping out of the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should keep Fred from much redevelopment over the next 24-36 hours. 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[Windspeed]

There may be a closed low-level vortex forming along 95L's northern axis. Convection is not that impressive and there are mid level easterlies advecting stable air mass into that complex. Convection needs to persist there if this gets classified sooner than later. It appears to be trying however.

[Floydbuster]

Here's a 12pm Video update. I'm much more interested in 95L this morning than disorganized Fred.

 

[ldub23]

Here  is a  168hr  map. Supposedly we are  in the super duper favorable  num 2 MJO, Just about  at  peak, and  basically  nothing.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2021081200/slp28.png

 

Euro

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

Sounds good  but something  is stopping anything  of  note developing. I  have read  in several places we will be  back in a suppressive  phase  in Sept. Seems  like an awful small window now  for  a hurricane to form.

[Windspeed]

Sounds good  but something  is stopping anything  of  note developing. I  have read  in several places we will be  back in a suppressive  phase  in Sept. Seems  like an awful small window now  for  a hurricane to form.

It's August 12th, dude. Also, the suppressive phase you keep referring to for September is only a possibility and likely would not last more than a few weeks over the WATL. The West African Monsoonal circulation will likely still have sufficient atmospheric favorability during that period in place regardless. Which means any strong AEW could still develop. But again, any month in advance for MJO and you're trying to bank that against peak climo around the second week of Sept. In that respect, you're likely going to lose at those odds unless the overall seasonal trends are inactive and downward. They do not appear to be; and EVEN if September experiences a longer than normal period of inactivity, that's almost three weeks away while MJO would hypothetically remain favorable.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12Z GFS, hard to be sure this is 95L, (GFS kills it near G. Antilles and revives something on 850 mb vort), then it starts strengthening and turning to sea before a sharp left turn to hit SC  Edit to add- implied flood disaster as weak TD Fred hits and doesn't move fast, and then presumably Grace moves slowly SW, reaches the Gulf Coast, and meanders just dropping rain.  Edit to add H to 'its

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

12Z GFS, hard to be sure this is 95L, (GFS kills it near G. Antilles and revives something on 850 mb vort), then it starts strengthening and turning to sea before a sharp left turn to hit SC  Edit to add- implied flood disaster as weak TD Fred its and doesn't move fast, and then presumably Grace moves slowly SW, reaches the Gulf Coast, and meanders just dropping rain.

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Here  is a  168hr  map. Supposedly we are  in the super duper favorable  num 2 MJO, Just about  at  peak, and  basically  nothing.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2021081200/slp28.png

 

Euro

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

August 11th is not the peak. We usually still don't even have any named storms until the 2nd half of august. It starts to kick up at the end. Also every single year I see people constantly say the season will be dead because models showed nothing and then weeks later get proven wrong time and time again lol

[Hoth]

7 hours ago, Windspeed said:

7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Sounds good  but something  is stopping anything  of  note developing. I  have read  in several places we will be  back in a suppressive  phase  in Sept. Seems  like an awful small window now  for  a hurricane to form.

It's August 12th, dude. Also, the suppressive phase you keep referring to for September is only a possibility and likely would not last more than a few weeks over the WATL. The West African Monsoonal circulation will likely still have sufficient atmospheric favorability during that period in place regardless. Which means any strong AEW could still develop. But again, any month in advance for MJO and you're trying to bank that against peak climo around the second week of Sept. In that respect, you're likely going to lose at those odds unless the overall seasonal trends are inactive and downward. They do not appear to be; and EVEN if September experiences a longer than normal period of inactivity, that's almost three weeks away while MJO would hypothetically remain favorable.

Idub23 downplaying is just about the most bullish signal for Atlantic canes there is. I still remember him declaring the Atlantic dead like a week before Harvey, Irma, Jose and Katia starting blowing up in '17. One of the more epic bad calls of all time on this board.

[OKwx_2001]

7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Sounds good  but something  is stopping anything  of  note developing. I  have read  in several places we will be  back in a suppressive  phase  in Sept. Seems  like an awful small window now  for  a hurricane to form.

It's not even peak season yet. It's not like August first hits and then it's a cane fest. There's a reason why many consider 8/20 to be the start of peak season. In the last decade there have only been 3 storms before 8/20 to get stronger than Cat 1, and none of those were majors. I've got a feeling a lot of your posts on here claiming this season is going to be inactive are going to age very very poorly...

[RT1980]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

It's not even peak season yet. It's not like August first hits and then it's a cane fest. There's a reason why many consider 8/20 to be the start of peak season. In the last decade there have only been 3 storms before 8/20 to get stronger than Cat 1, and none of those were majors. I've got a feeling a lot of your posts on here claiming this season is going to be inactive are going to age very very poorly...

Why is there only 289 hour models posted?  I would love a short term forecast from him on what will happen!      Do the long term models support?

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

It's not even peak season yet. It's not like August first hits and then it's a cane fest. There's a reason why many consider 8/20 to be the start of peak season. In the last decade there have only been 3 storms before 8/20 to get stronger than Cat 1, and none of those were majors. I've got a feeling a lot of your posts on here claiming this season is going to be inactive are going to age very very poorly...

But Supposedly we are  in the  most favorable  phase  of the  MJO and still basically nothing. Dead Fred and  a  very  struggling  95L.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Idub23 downplaying is just about the most bullish signal for Atlantic canes there is. I still remember him declaring the Atlantic dead like a week before Harvey, Irma, Jose and Katia starting blowing up in '17. One of the more epic bad calls of all time on this board.

That was an all-timer 

[OKwx_2001]

7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

But Supposedly we are  in the  most favorable  phase  of the  MJO and still basically nothing. Dead Fred and  a  very  struggling  95L.

Again, early August isn't usually very favorable in the Atlantic. Fred struggled because of land interaction. 95L hasn't reached favorable conditions yet but it looks like it's on its way to become Grace. 

[cptcatz]

Best signal of the year so far from euro for a possible long tracker

[MJO812]

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro ens says the US E coast may have to watch 96L in about a week as all of those members offshore the SE are from 96L (out of 51 members though):

https://i.imgur.com/2tbUJK7.png

[LoboLeader1]

 

[ldub23]

22 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

So is that finally  going to end the  constant  flood  here? Phase2 MJO still not  producing anything  of  note.

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

 

[ldub23]

I agree with JB. In this type  of season the  low  from outside the tropics is the  one to watch.

 

[Windspeed]

I agree with JB. In this type  of season the  low  from outside the tropics is the  one to watch.
 

This post makes no sense.

1) Where did JB elude to season state anywhere in that tweet? 2) What type of season is it exactly? 3) Why would you ignore any system with potential based on any given season anyway?

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

I agree with JB. In this type  of season the  low  from outside the tropics is the  one to watch.

 

 Any potential east coast threat from 96L may be higher early next week vs late this week. The 6Z Euro ens is similar to the 0Z with again a handful of threatening members out of 51. So, though not a high threat right now (6Z GEFS still says hardly any threat from this), it will be interesting to see whether or not this later evolves into a significant threat, especially NC north:

[ldub23]

51 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

This post makes no sense.

1) Where did JB elude to season state anywhere in that tweet? 2) What type of season is it exactly? 3) Why would you ignore any system with potential based on any given season anyway?

The type  of season is  my interpretation.  A season where real tropical lows struggle  in very  hostile  conditions while  non tropical lows  have a  better  chance. Im ignoring Grace  because  i think it will fall apart and Fred might  make  it to a sheared  lopsided  min cat1.. I dont think Grace should  have been named and  its doubtful there  is a  real center  now. Phase 2 MJO, LATE aug and  on the Euro there is a  green thing  in the central tropical atlantic. More suppressive  phase will be  here  in Sept. And  its rather suppressive  now. I  have to reply here. I  mention phase 2 MJO so much because  its supposed to be the  EL PRIMO phase for tropical development. So far  its  produced  nothing  of  note.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

[ldub23]

Just now, ldub23 said:

The type  of season is  my interpretation.  A season where real tropical lows struggle  in very  hostile  conditions while  non tropical lows  have a  better  chance.

 

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any potential east coast threat from 96L may be higher early next week vs late this week. The 6Z Euro ens is similar to the 0Z with again a handful of threatening members out of 51. So, though not a high threat right now (6Z GEFS still says hardly any threat from this), it will be interesting to see whether or not this later evolves into a significant threat, especially NC north:

96L will be fun to watch.

[Windspeed]

The type  of season is  my interpretation.  A season where real tropical lows struggle  in very  hostile  conditions while  non tropical lows  have a  better  chance. Im ignoring Grace  because  i think it will fall apart and Fred might  make  it to a sheared  lopsided  min cat1.

You said you agreed with JB. At any rate, based on your climatological assessment, it is my interpretation that you are going to be very wrong about this season like you were the past four years. You keep relying on June through intraseasonal early August storm activity to proclaim what peak to second half of an Atlantic tropical season will or will not do. Furthermore you repeat yourself incessantly when there's not a system reaching hurricane status. We could have had a drinking game by now based on how many times you have mentioned phase 2 MJO in the active threads. Your evidence based on the long-range operational outputs when you make bold claims, among other things, opens yourself up to a lot of criticism. That subtropical region comment you just made was a little much, even for you.

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently 
re-designated Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central 
Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the 
northeastern Caribbean Sea just to the south of Puerto Rico.

1. A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 175 
miles northeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized 
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some development of this low during the next couple 
of days, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly 
to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east 
of Bermuda.  By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become 
less conducive for tropical cyclone formation.  Interests in Bermuda 
should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro ens is back to 96L being hardly any threat to the US.