SENC Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said: Me neither! Must be a new type of differential equation. After all, it was the least favorite course I took towards obtaining my meteorological degree...aside from Calc II. Then again, I’m not sure anyone could decipher it. I believe it's that New alien, Common Core Maff I've been hearing about? Anyhoo BOT.. Interesting Analyses, We here in SENC up too OBX Coast(s) have had, about our wettest Summer eva, and Lotsa QPF could be our demise,, Dennis/Floyd esq, type stuff,, In other words extreme flooding very possible.. If some of those Forecast tracks, come to pass.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 4 hours ago, AmpedVort said: I have no clue as well. Some discussion on the topic "match" the numbers to a logical meaning. Like a game or something... Obviously somebody is throwing wrecking balls in here but it is not me believe me! Idk man, seems a little NUTS. N = Nobody U = Understands T= The hell your S= Saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Haven't posted in years. Came in to catch up on what's going on, and got quite the chuckle. Pretty sure I'm witnessing an alcohol fueled bender, with a side of meth. I feel spun just from reading that nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 94L looks healthy this morning. Definitely the most organized look from it so far. Let’s see if it can maintain convection and continue to form a LLC today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Wouldn't be surprised to see 94L become a depression today seeing how it's looking this morning. Eager to see an ascat pass. Looking tight and juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Euro has a green dot south of PR. Deadsville http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080900/slp2.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbbballkid37 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 SSMIS pass over 94L a couple hours ago. This site also tells you when the next chances are for upcoming passes...next ASCAT opportunity is just after 1300Z today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Starting to get interesting for sure. The convective envelope could stand to improve further, but clearly it is trying as I type this. As has been said earlier, let's see if some good bursting today can tighten up that broader low level circulation. There's some nice convection trying within the eastern region of the low level spin. This may go through genesis as it is moving through the Lesser Antilles. Would not be surprised to see PTC advisories as early as this afternoon. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 I definitely think we could see a tropical storm out of this. The longer-range ensembles seem to like the wave leaving Africa this week as a potential Caribbean cruiser and much stronger. We're getting closer to the active times for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreekWeatherGod95 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I definitely think we could see a tropical storm out of this. The longer-range ensembles seem to like the wave leaving Africa this week as a potential Caribbean cruiser and much stronger. We're getting closer to the active times for sure. We are still at least a week before a potential US landfall tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Long time lurker, just trying to follow the upcoming systems cause I'll be in the Outer Banks next week. Who is moderating this thread? Why do we keep having to read nonsense from AmpedVort and VortAmp? This thread has become unreadable at this point. Thanks, I'll go back to lurking now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, Kristospherein said: Long time lurker, just trying to follow the upcoming systems cause I'll be in the Outer Banks next week. Who is moderating this thread? Why do we keep having to read nonsense from AmpedVort and VortAmp? This thread has become unreadable at this point. Thanks, I'll go back to lurking now. The ignore button does exist. Also Vortamp/AmpedVort chill a little please you don't have to but I think people might like you more on this thread if you did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Good bye Vort 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Keep this thread on topic. It's a hurricane season pinned thread, not post about winter and whatever else pops into your head thread. Please report stoopidity so that it can be removed as soon as possible. Now.....back to your regular scheduled program 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristospherein Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Keep this thread on topic. It's a hurricane season pinned thread, not post about winter and whatever else pops into your head thread. Please report stoopidity so that it can be removed as soon as possible. Now.....back to your regular scheduled program Thank you. As a lurker, I'm not familiar with the ignore button but will take a look for the future. To keep things on target, Panovich is predicting that Invest 94-L will become a tropical depression or storm soon (no time frame but he's usually pretty cautious with his meteorological language). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherDA Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 45 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Keep this thread on topic. It's a hurricane season pinned thread, not post about winter and whatever else pops into your head thread. Please report stoopidity so that it can be removed as soon as possible. Now.....back to your regular scheduled program Thank you for this message because even though I don't post much, I still enjoy the topic when it hasn't been taken over by off topic or spammy information. I will report anything suspicious if it pops up as I think that person may have returned under another account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1) 94L looks good but arc clouds on visible suggests dry air issues and it doesn't quite look closed.. I still suspect a PTC in 90 minutes for Martinique and St. Lucia TS advisories. 2) GFS catches every hill in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba with 94L, and still brings a TD or even a minimal TS to the Florida Panhandle. Small differences in track could mean less land, more water. OTOH, the no land SHIPS only slowly intensifies it, increasing shear from West after 3 days. After, some GFS ensembles support decent wave approaching Yucatan from Caribbean on Euro at 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 The main cluster of stronger 12Z Euro ensemble members crosses S FL and then goes into the NE Gulf. This is followed by a move into the FL Panhandle and then into AL or W GA. A secondary cluster largely misses FL barely to the east or skims it followed by a N movement and landfall anywhere from SAV to ILM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 PTC 6 in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: PTC 6 in 30 minutes. Sorry for my ignorance but PTC stands for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Given the smallishness in size, question is IF 94L passes over Hispaniola, will it survive, since it is a weak developing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Sorry for my ignorance but PTC stands for? Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 From disco Quote By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 35 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Given the smallishness in size, question is IF 94L passes over Hispaniola, will it survive, since it is a weak developing system. I think it would survive (barely), but it'd be hard pressed to recover, especially if it gets sheared after passing the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 This would be a great time for anyone w/ 10 - 15 day Euro ensembles to post them. For the future possible 95 or 96L that may track South of the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 If this is going to blow up into anything. I think it won’t happen until it gets into the gulf. The Hispaniola shredder gonna impact this. Most likely scenario is a big sloppy rain maker somewhere in the south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 59 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: This would be a great time for anyone w/ 10 - 15 day Euro ensembles to post them. For the future possible 95 or 96L that may track South of the Greater Antilles. Wide spread but lots of members showing the next one developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 20% of 18Z GEFS w/ sub 1000 mb low in/near Gulf in 13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The long-range ensembles show a flurry of activity right on time in late August. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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