2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Prospero]

We are entering new territory as far as weather. Everything we know and have learned so far might be wrong for now on. Good for some places, bad for others.

Yea, I know, let me have it. I'll have another beer and go to sleep for another break before Hell may or may not break loose...

 

 

[floridapirate]

15 hours ago, Prospero said:

We are entering new territory as far as weather. Everything we know and have learned so far might be wrong for now on. Good for some places, bad for others.

Yea, I know, let me have it. I'll have another beer and go to sleep for another break before Hell may or may not break loose...

 

 

Well, we only have 12 more years, so why worry?

 

[Windspeed]

The 18z GFS and HAFS-B globalnest have very robust cyclonic signatures with the strong MCS about to advance off Africa over the next few days. Monsoonal flow has become robust into the Cabo Verdes. Latitude for wave break and axis will still be critical for downstream development however as SSTs are still quite marginal due west of the islands. A surface trough more SSW of CV would obviously increase potential, as 27°C+ SSTs better support thermodynamics needed for cyclogenesis.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

The 18z GFS and HAFS-B globalnest have very robust cyclonic signatures with the strong MCS about to advance off Africa over the next few days. Monsoonal flow has become robust into the Cabo Verdes. Latitude for wave break and axis will still be critical for downstream development however as SSTs are still quite marginal due west of the islands. A surface trough more SSW of CV would obviously increase potential, as 27°C+ SSTs better support thermodynamics needed for cyclogenesis.

[Floydbuster]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

The 18z GFS and HAFS-B globalnest have very robust cyclonic signatures with the strong MCS about to advance off Africa over the next few days. Monsoonal flow has become robust into the Cabo Verdes. Latitude for wave break and axis will still be critical for downstream development however as SSTs are still quite marginal due west of the islands. A surface trough more SSW of CV would obviously increase potential, as 27°C+ SSTs better support thermodynamics needed for cyclogenesis.

 

Interesting as the last two storms named "Fred" in 2009 and 2015, were far, far out in the Eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verdes.

 

Hurricane Fred - 2009

Hurricane Fred - 2015

[jconsor]

Look to the western Atlantic and Caribbean for potential development as we approach mid-August.
 

 

[ldub23]

A few  waves but  conditions arent  improving. Waves were stronger  in June.

[WxWatcher007]

No surprise but that wave coming off Africa is now designated Invest 92L. 

[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No surprise but that wave coming off Africa is now designated Invest 92L. 

Things are starting to get interesting just like what many people forecasted 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Things are starting to get interesting just like what many people forecasted 

Yeah I’m definitely starting to wake up now. Neither wave is guaranteed to develop but if the lead wave in the central Atlantic can avoid land it could have a window for some development in the western Atlantic.

I know 92L is the focus right now but I wouldn’t take my eye off either as something to casually watch.

[ncforecaster89]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

A few  waves but  conditions arent  improving. Waves were stronger  in June.

It’s still a little early, relatively speaking, and we’re right on schedule for a typically active hurricane season.  You’ll see...the ocean and atmosphere have steadily been building the right environment, and they’re going to come.   

[MJO812]

[ldub23]

4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

It’s still a little early, relatively speaking, and we’re right on schedule for a typically active hurricane season.  You’ll see...the ocean and atmosphere have steadily been building the right environment, and they’re going to come.   

I suppose  but still really  dry. I  have been reading sept will be suppressed and Aug  isnt exactly active.

[cptcatz]

The models can't seem to figure out where this thing is going to form. Going to be interesting to see where it does finally form and how the models alter their runs based on that. Seems we can't actually get anything from the models until that happens. 

[Floydbuster]

I'm kinda surprised that the NHC is so liberal with development. I'm not convinced anything will come of either area of interest. I'm also not impressed with the long-range models but they seem to be awful on genesis. Two years ago, the long-range GFS a few days out showed a sunny beautiful day in Abaco Island when it actuality there was a 180 mph hurricane overhead. Last year, the models showed nothing of a 90 mph Hurricane Hanna slamming into Texas.

I have little faith with the forecast models when it comes to genesis. 

[thunderbolt]

22 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm kinda surprised that the NHC is so liberal with development. I'm not convinced anything will come of either area of interest. I'm also not impressed with the long-range models but they seem to be awful on genesis. Two years ago, the long-range GFS a few days out showed a sunny beautiful day in Abaco Island when it actuality there was a 180 mph hurricane overhead. Last year, the models showed nothing of a 90 mph Hurricane Hanna slamming into Texas.

I have little faith with the forecast models when it comes to genesis. 

I was kind of thinking the same thing my reasoning was once the Eastern Pacific shuts down then we would see the Atlantic Would wake up 

[ldub23]

14 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I was kind of thinking the same thing my reasoning was once the Eastern Pacific shuts down then we would see the Atlantic Would wake up 

No sign the east  pac  is going to shut  down. Just the  opposite.

[ldub23]

First half of August is deadsville and with 2 hurricanes in the east pac might have to wait till sept for anything.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080600/slp8.png

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

First half of August is deadsville and with 2 hurricanes in the east pac might have to wait till sept for anything.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080600/slp8.png

So you are going with with 192 hour simulation of the Euro to say we have to wait until September ?

[ldub23]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with with 192 hour simulation of the Euro to say we have to wait until September ?

Yea, i am. Its shows  nothing  on the ATL side.

[Windspeed]

Oh look, it must be early August. The same usual suspect is here to provide their informative long range seasonal analysis based on a single numerical operational model output. You know if they can keep this up every year, they're eventually going to be correct.

[rclab]

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

No sign the east  pac  is going to shut  down. Just the  opposite.

 

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

First half of August is deadsville and with 2 hurricanes in the east pac might have to wait till sept for anything.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080600/slp8.png

 

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with with 192 hour simulation of the Euro to say we have to wait until September ?

 

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Yea, i am. Its shows  nothing  on the ATL side.

 

43 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Oh look, it must be early August. The same usual suspect is here to provide their informative long range seasonal analysis based on a single numerical operational model output. You know if they can keep this up every year, they're eventually going to be correct.

Good morning Idub, Anthony, Windspeed. I always wondered where the posting trials were held for cold season storm threats. As always …..

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Yea, i am. Its shows  nothing  on the ATL side.

So that means nothing will happen ? You do realize nothing is certain at 192 hours.

[LoboLeader1]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

La Nina is going to strengthen.. -4 in subsurface next few days. 

Gotta love the -PDO/+IO

[cptcatz]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Yea, i am. Its shows  nothing  on the ATL side.

Lol you must have not been following how accurate the models are for the past couple years. 

[cptcatz]

Interesting run by the icon...

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

La Nina is going to strengthen.. -4 in subsurface next few days. 

Gotta love the -PDO/+IO

But the east  pac is rip roaring. And that  icon model shows storm after storm in the east  pac so i think that storm headed to florida  is a  phantom.

[WxWatcher007]

As I was saying yesterday, I think that lead wave (current NHC lemon) is something to watch as it reaches the Antilles. If it’s able to track north of the larger islands it may run into a more favorable environment, at least with regard to OHC and moisture. Shear TBD. 

It’s no surprise the guidance is struggling with projecting what, if anything, comes out if this monsoon trough. We’re kind of at the point in the season where MDR environmental conditions are favorable enough for a signal but still hostile enough to preclude a robust one with what we’ve got going on currently.

Sure, something could develop, but we’re probably jumping the gun by a week or two in having a truly conducive pattern for TC genesis. Of course, that’s why climo is climo.

[Rhino16]

Should we expect something very bad to happen if a storm makes it into the Gulf?