LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 31, 2021 Share Posted July 31, 2021 20 hours ago, Prospero said: Every year I watch and watch. Even slow years. I have my doubts about this year and have since Spring. Watching, always. Low numbers, late season, and intense when it does happen. Hopefully all off the coasts fun to watch with perfect eyes and not too much stress on we who live on the coasts. Of course, that is NOT based on anything scientific at all. So possibly very wrong indeed. I'm going back to sleep as I may need it later! Pretty much every single screams hyperactive season. I could see canes stacked in the MDR like planes coming into a busy airport. Of course the local pattern will determine wether we have an impactful season. Regardless as an east coast surfer there will be plenty of waves on tap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 I don’t think hyperactive happens due to the SST and OHC profile in the MDR, but above average looks as close to a lock as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Twitter, hints tomorrow some people lower numbers, but while peak September season may be in a suppressive MJO phase, mid-late August looks favorable and hints of STR weakness near/just West of East Coast, while peak season may be slow, before peak season (mid August) may be busy, and ECUSA could be involved. If MJO is 40 days, who knows the October pattern for Florida or ECUSA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Twitter, hints tomorrow some people lower numbers, but while peak September season may be in a suppressive MJO phase, mid-late August looks favorable and hints of STR weakness near/just West of East Coast, while peak season may be slow, before peak season (mid August) may be busy, and ECUSA could be involved. If MJO is 40 days, who knows the October pattern for Florida or ECUSA. And I totally concur with this statement about the MJO I was just gonna post About this it looks like it’s going to be more favorable Phases mid to late Aug 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 On 7/30/2021 at 10:30 PM, Prospero said: Every year I watch and watch. Even slow years. I have my doubts about this year and have since Spring. Watching, always. Low numbers, late season, and intense when it does happen. Hopefully all off the coasts fun to watch with perfect eyes and not too much stress on we who live on the coasts. Of course, that is NOT based on anything scientific at all. So possibly very wrong indeed. I'm going back to sleep as I may need it later! This good enough for you even if it is at the end of the GFS run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Looks like GFS and Euro are in good agreement that the wave that rolls off Africa this Thursday will try to develop. Of course euro has it staying at TD/TS through the MDR while GFS has it getting to 952 mb. Looks like the ensembles have the stronger storms curving further north with the weaker tracks heading towards the Caribbean. Should be a good one to watch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Oh boy! Something to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 9 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Twitter, hints tomorrow some people lower numbers, but while peak September season may be in a suppressive MJO phase, mid-late August looks favorable and hints of STR weakness near/just West of East Coast, while peak season may be slow, before peak season (mid August) may be busy, and ECUSA could be involved. If MJO is 40 days, who knows the October pattern for Florida or ECUSA. Dead sept and maybe something in AUG? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Well anytime both the ECMWF and GFS ops are sniffing development out of the MDR, take note. But this is the midrange middle August, therefore climatologically time for the switch to flip on. There are some decent AEWs that will be rolling off over the next week and the WAM flow looks to extend and tug on the ITCZ to 40W during that time. Enjoy the quiet, doesn't look like it's going to last much longer. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Dead sept and maybe something in AUG? I am bit more concerned with October right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 5 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said: I just took step ONE in preparing for the season: I cleaned out the door in our freezer and one shelf (filled a kitchen trash can). With Irma we lost everything in the freezer and fridge and when the power came back two weeks later our old refrigerator was sparkling clean like brand new. We had plenty of time to clean it thoroughly. It was the last time we thoroughly cleaned it (2017). I tossed everything today from 2018 and 2019. No matter what it was, if we haven't thawed and eaten it by now, we never will. I did NOT mention what I did to my wife, of course, but she'll never miss anything of it at all. "What happened to the frozen Salmon we bought from Sam's Club a few years ago?" "Hmm baby, I don't know. Maybe we ate it?" What is important is having space to stock ice or freeze blue-ice packs in the last buying moments as a storm approaches when it is still available for my beer and our half-n-half for coffee. People say we need a generator. Good idea. But we can last two days without power. It's when it is like a week or so it gets really bad. During Irma we had neighbors who had lights and kept their food safe. But by the third night or so our neighborhood was dark and dead silent at night as they all ran out of gas. Charging our phones and laptops from our vehicles was the saving technology. And we could still hunt down and buy gas in Pinellas County after Irma, luckily. Plus it was nice to sit in our vehicles with blowing A/C when it was brutal hot in our homes and listen to music. But ice was nowhere to be found, even frozen food was sold out in any open grocery store as people were trying to use it to keep whatever they had left cool. Mostly beer I imagine. Since 2003 when I moved back to Florida I've experienced maybe a full month with no power; Hurricane Jeanne was a week, Irma two weeks, other passing storms and typical severe thunderstorms are definitely a week combined. Always a pain, but being prepared for 24 to 48 hours is easy enough and is worth while. Longer than that is getting to point of finding a place to stay until the power comes back on. "Home camping" in the heat and humidity of Florida gets very old quick. UGH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, Prospero said: I just took step ONE in preparing for the season: I cleaned out the door in our freezer and one shelf (filled a kitchen trash can). With Irma we lost everything in the freezer and fridge and when the power came back two weeks later our old refrigerator was sparkling clean like brand new. We had plenty of time to clean it thoroughly. It was the last time we thoroughly cleaned it (2017). I tossed everything today from 2018 and 2019. No matter what it was, if we haven't thawed and eaten it by now, we never will. I did NOT mention what I did to my wife, of course, but she'll never miss anything of it at all. "What happened to the frozen Salmon we bought from Sam's Club a few years ago?" "Hmm baby, I don't know. Maybe we ate it?" What is important is having space to stock ice or freeze blue-ice packs in the last buying moments as a storm approaches when it is still available for my beer and our half-n-half for coffee. People say we need a generator. Good idea. But we can last two days without power. It's when it is like a week or so it gets really bad. During Irma we had neighbors who had lights and kept their food safe. But by the third night or so our neighborhood was dark and dead silent at night as they all ran out of gas. Charging our phones and laptops from our vehicles was the saving technology. And we could still hunt down and buy gas in Pinellas County after Irma, luckily. Plus it was nice to sit in our vehicles with blowing A/C when it was brutal hot in our homes and listen to music. But ice was nowhere to be found, even frozen food was sold out in any open grocery store as people were trying to use it to keep whatever they had left cool. Mostly beer I imagine. Since 2003 when I moved back to Florida I've experienced maybe a full month with no power; Hurricane Jeanne was a week, Irma two weeks, other passing storms and typical severe thunderstorms are definitely a week combined. Always a pain, but being prepared for 24 to 48 hours is easy enough and is worth while. Longer than that is getting to point of finding a place to stay until the power comes back on. "Home camping" in the heat and humidity of Florida gets very old quick. UGH If you don't want a generator, this is a great backup. It's great for any other uses when you need high power in remote areas, but it's also nice to have in a power outage. If you're sitting in your car charging your phone, you can pop the hood and attach this to your battery for an outlet with 1000 watts which should be able to power a small fridge/freezer. I use it quite often as I often need to power some power tools where I don't have an outlet and much easier than lugging around a portable generator. https://www.homedepot.com/p/DEWALT-1000-Watt-Portable-Car-Power-Inverter-with-Triple-USB-Ports-DXAEPI1000/301887060?MERCH=REC-_-searchViewed-_-NA-_-301887060-_-N 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 1, 2021 Share Posted August 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, cptcatz said: If you don't want a generator, this is a great backup. It's great for any other uses when you need high power in remote areas, but it's also nice to have in a power outage. If you're sitting in your car charging your phone, you can pop the hood and attach this to your battery for an outlet with 1000 watts which should be able to power a small fridge/freezer. I use it quite often as I often need to power some power tools where I don't have an outlet and much easier than lugging around a portable generator. https://www.homedepot.com/p/DEWALT-1000-Watt-Portable-Car-Power-Inverter-with-Triple-USB-Ports-DXAEPI1000/301887060?MERCH=REC-_-searchViewed-_-NA-_-301887060-_-N I will look into it. Thanks!! I've looked at generators for many years. But one thing that held me back was the age of the gasoline. I have a weed-eater I bought and put gas in and also a gas container that has been sitting for almost tens years. I have great landscapers who do what I ask, and the weed-eater only got used one time. I remember the manual saying to keep the gas fresh and never leave old gas in a gas container. So having a generator that might get used every few years had me concerned. Maybe I have over thought it, but definitely a thought. Yet a $150 device I can hook up to my car and a cheap small fridge would keep my wife's insulin cool and maybe a six pack as well. Plus some cheese and half-n-half. Even so, after a few days of no power we are seeking an air-conditioned room somewhere. But seriously, sleeping with a cpap, I'd hook up and get some sleep for a few hours in my car if I need to even with just a night outage after a wild thunderstorm! Making sure carbon-monoxide is not a danger of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 EC OP with a curiousity 850 Vort max moving nwwd in the Atlc Basin next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 Come on -4.. I think it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Come on -4.. I think it will happen. @StormchaserChuck! Very impressive subsurface cooling! Have we ever seen -4C at subsurface with surface anomalies still in the neutral range (>-0.5C)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 I am skeptical of the EPS idea of rapidly developing the tropical wave currently just off the African coast. Next wave likely has a better chance to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 2, 2021 Author Share Posted August 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, jconsor said: @StormchaserChuck! Very impressive subsurface cooling! Have we ever seen -4C at subsurface with surface anomalies still in the neutral range (>-0.5C)? I've found that the subsurface has a higher immediate correlation to the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern (0.90) vs surface ~(0.80), for example. If we hit -4, the over/under on storms this year is 20, I think. -PNA pops up at Day 5. Maybe we'll see -4 hit then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 1 hour ago, jconsor said: I am skeptical of the EPS idea of rapidly developing the tropical wave currently just off the African coast. Next wave likely has a better chance to develop. I'm definitely sitting on the slightly concerned side here in Eastern NC as the season cranks up. We are way above normal (a surplus of 13.34 officially) on rainfall with 4-8 inches more coming this week. Wet ground and a hurricane would be bad for downed trees and flooding concerns. Of course we could just as easily see no local hurricane traffic with everything going OTS or into the GOM. I'll be paying far more attention over the next week as we start to see the models spit out different scenarios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 22 hours ago, Prospero said: I just took step ONE in preparing for the season: I cleaned out the door in our freezer and one shelf (filled a kitchen trash can). With Irma we lost everything in the freezer and fridge and when the power came back two weeks later our old refrigerator was sparkling clean like brand new. We had plenty of time to clean it thoroughly. It was the last time we thoroughly cleaned it (2017). I tossed everything today from 2018 and 2019. No matter what it was, if we haven't thawed and eaten it by now, we never will. I did NOT mention what I did to my wife, of course, but she'll never miss anything of it at all. "What happened to the frozen Salmon we bought from Sam's Club a few years ago?" "Hmm baby, I don't know. Maybe we ate it?" What is important is having space to stock ice or freeze blue-ice packs in the last buying moments as a storm approaches when it is still available for my beer and our half-n-half for coffee. People say we need a generator. Good idea. But we can last two days without power. It's when it is like a week or so it gets really bad. During Irma we had neighbors who had lights and kept their food safe. But by the third night or so our neighborhood was dark and dead silent at night as they all ran out of gas. Charging our phones and laptops from our vehicles was the saving technology. And we could still hunt down and buy gas in Pinellas County after Irma, luckily. Plus it was nice to sit in our vehicles with blowing A/C when it was brutal hot in our homes and listen to music. But ice was nowhere to be found, even frozen food was sold out in any open grocery store as people were trying to use it to keep whatever they had left cool. Mostly beer I imagine. Since 2003 when I moved back to Florida I've experienced maybe a full month with no power; Hurricane Jeanne was a week, Irma two weeks, other passing storms and typical severe thunderstorms are definitely a week combined. Always a pain, but being prepared for 24 to 48 hours is easy enough and is worth while. Longer than that is getting to point of finding a place to stay until the power comes back on. "Home camping" in the heat and humidity of Florida gets very old quick. UGH 22 hours ago, Prospero said: Being prepared is always key, hopefully you guys will be out of harms way down there this hurricane season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 2, 2021 Share Posted August 2, 2021 7 hours ago, shaggy said: I'm definitely sitting on the slightly concerned side here in Eastern NC as the season cranks up. We are way above normal (a surplus of 13.34 officially) on rainfall with 4-8 inches more coming this week. Wet ground and a hurricane would be bad for downed trees and flooding concerns. Of course we could just as easily see no local hurricane traffic with everything going OTS or into the GOM. I'll be paying far more attention over the next week as we start to see the models spit out different scenarios. I’m also in eastern NC (Wilmington) and share the same concerns. As a result of Florence in 2018, my house sustained more than $12,000 in damage from the wind providing entry through the roof for the torrential rains to damage the sheet rock. Don’t wish such hardship on anyone else. Interestingly, Wilmington has been struck directly by the eyewall of 10 separate hurricanes and an additional TC of borderline TS/H intensity during the past 25 years...far exceeding every other town/city in the U.S., during that time. Based on all the major oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections, there’s an increased risk that there will be multiple U.S hurricane landfalls for the 6th consecutive season. If, and more likely when, they occur, I fully intend to be in the eyewall to document the brunt of their fury. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 On 8/1/2021 at 11:53 AM, Prospero said: I am bit more concerned with October right now... Could be a concern for FLA but by Oct i tune out. Fla could get hit by a big one in OCT. aug/sept might dead but a fairly active oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 50 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Disturbing that nearly every blob hits the United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 I'm intrigued for Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 3 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Disturbing that nearly every blob hits the United States. Looks like surprisingly few head for Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 4 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I'm intrigued for Texas. and the Florida peninsula shield holds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3, 2021 Share Posted August 3, 2021 45 minutes ago, cptcatz said: and the Florida peninsula shield holds! 45 day forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted August 3, 2021 Author Share Posted August 3, 2021 Aug 12 of most active seasons -AO persists oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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