2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[StormchaserChuck!]

Remember this Cat 5 in 2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:Lorenzo_2019_track.png 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Late in the year for CV storms, especially ones that look like they could effect the Lesser Antilles.  Oh, has anyone seen the GFS ensembles?

[cptcatz]

27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Late in the year for CV storms, especially ones that look like they could effect the Lesser Antilles.  Oh, has anyone seen the GFS ensembles?

Closing out CV season with twins?

Looks like the season shifts to the western Caribbean/SW Atlantic (fitting climo) soon. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Closing out CV season with twins?

Looks like the season shifts to the western Caribbean/SW Atlantic (fitting climo) soon. 

Looks like fishes this far out 

[lee59]

9 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

There are reasons why it is cyclical but it definitely does seem to be cyclical even on a more localized level. For example, Long Island and New England got hammered with storms in the 1950s to early 60s. Meanwhile not a hurricane has crossed the shore of Long Island in over 35 years. Look at Florida, after the incredibly active 2005 season it went a record 10 years without a major hurricane hitting it. 

[Intensewind002]

19 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing. 

That seems to be fairly cyclic as well, a cluster of high end cat 4 or higher US landfalls happened in the 1920s into the 30s (plus a 150 mph cat 4 in 1919) and again in the 1960s, (Donna, Carla, and Camille)

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like fishes this far out 

I'm not looking at it closely right now, but yeah, probably. Too many opportunities for the central Atlantic ridge to be weakened as whatever develops drives west. That said, the first wave could get shredded a bit by the outflow of Sam and meander its way into the western Caribbean in the long range until it finds a more favorable environment. Again, hadn't looked that much but this is the time of year for that kind of thing.

[Intensewind002]

Just a gut feeling, but I think we’ll get another 2 or maybe even 3 majors from Caribbean season this year

[StormchaserChuck!]

The two red's are probably fish storms

Irma and Georges

https://ibb.co/yFXtWv0

https://ibb.co/W08P9sZ

We need realy a trough over NE US or New Foundland/NorthAtlantic area.. we have opposite

https://ibb.co/V34wMDF

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

The two red's are probably fish storms

Irma and Georges

https://ibb.co/yFXtWv0

https://ibb.co/W08P9sZ

We need realy a trough over NE US or New Foundland/NorthAtlantic area.. we have opposite

https://ibb.co/V34wMDF

Gfs keeps the wave behind Sam weak and tracks it into the Caribbean.

[TheDreamTraveler]

22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa.  (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name)  1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005.  But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active.

 

3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening.  Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs.  And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

There are very many things attributed to the atlantic being very active right now since 1995. The atlantic goes through a period of 20-30 years of active and inactive tropical activity. There are a ton of global weather patterns that play a big role including as well but that'd take a long time to get into but Africa's weather patterns are a big reason for active and inactive seasons. And like you said warmer SST's also contribute to it either from climate warming or warm cycles that the oceans may be in. For example we're in a +AMO right now since the mid 1990s which was right around this active period started. But yeah there's a lot of things at play lol because if you remember before 1995 things were very quiet for a few decades lol

Oh and about the thing you said about 1933 possibly being more active with satellites that's definitely true. Another thing to realize is the Atlantic was in a low activity phase around the time we started heavily using satellites in the 1960s and the active period didn't start until the mid-late 1990s.

[NorthHillsWx]

For those tracking seasonal ACE we will be exceeding the typical year end value for the Atlantic overnight. With two likely areas of development and Sam ongoing as a major hurricane for the next couple of days, we are likely to end up well above the average by next week. Knowing the frequency of strong October storms in recent years, the 2021 ACE value could be incredibly high by seasons end. Sam is likely to exceed 30 units, as Larry did earlier this year, making these exceptionally high ACE producing storms 

[thunderbolt]

44 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For those tracking seasonal ACE we will be exceeding the typical year end value for the Atlantic overnight. With two likely areas of development and Sam ongoing as a major hurricane for the next couple of days, we are likely to end up well above the average by next week. Knowing the frequency of strong October storms in recent years, the 2021 ACE value could be incredibly high by seasons end. Sam is likely to exceed 30 units, as Larry did earlier this year, making these exceptionally high ACE producing storms 

I believe we are at 105.2 for the north Atlantic

[nwohweather]

On 9/19/2021 at 9:46 AM, jconsor said:

Some insights into the lack of US landfalling hurricanes (along with no major hurricane landfalls) between 2006 and 2015, and the recent pronounced increase in US landfalling hurricanes.
 

 

Thank you for posting this! Very interesting hypothesis there

[StormchaserChuck!]

Before an +EPO Winter (this Winter's going to be +EPO)

-2019 had 7 storms here on out.- 

2018(-EPO) had 3 storms

2017(-EPO) had 4 storms

2001 (before biggest +EPOWinter) had 7 storms here on out. 

[thunderbolt]

36 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Before an +EPO Winter (this Winter's going to be +EPO)

-2019 had 7 storms here on out.- 

2018(-EPO) had 3 storms

2017(-EPO) had 3 storms

 

Ok

[StormchaserChuck!]

Actually, that's after October 3. We could do like 9-10 more storms. 

[StantonParkHoya]

18 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Before an +EPO Winter (this Winter's going to be +EPO)

-2019 had 7 storms here on out.- 

2018(-EPO) had 3 storms

2017(-EPO) had 4 storms

2001 (before biggest +EPOWinter) had 7 storms here on out. 

 

Uhh... theres no guarantee of a +EPO

[MJO812]

Gfs showing a possible home brew storm off the southeast coast.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

After 10 days, GEFS look interesting for developing in Caribbean and headed to Gulf action.

[MJO812]

[CheeselandSkies]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Lucky (or unlucky depending on your point of view) this pattern isn't already in place, with Sam churning across the Atlantic.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think we are kind of controlling the Pacific with potential landfalls to an extent. 

[olafminesaw]

Hmmm

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Hmmm

Gfs been showing a storm for quite a while 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs been showing a storm for quite a while 

No support elsewhere. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

No support elsewhere. 

Weenie range but there is alot of blocking in the Atlantic 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6Z GEFS- Southern Gulf/Caribbean infested with members showing a storm with 1000 mb or below pressure a week from tomorrow.