2021 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

12Z EPS continues with a lot of activity in the MDR during the 11-15 day period from various AEWs, which the US may have to monitor for after 9/20:

 

[madwx]

  On 9/2/2021 at 7:55 PM, ldub23 said:

England?

 

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This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes.   Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

 

 

[Floydbuster]

I always remember years like 1998. Hurricane Georges didn't even form until Sept 13th or 14th.

[GaWx]

  On 9/2/2021 at 7:12 PM, GaWx said:

12Z Euro, like the 0Z Euro, has a TS just off the coast of Africa 9/11. This is consistent with the EPS runs I’ve been posting. Note how strong the central Atlantic high is to the NNW of it. If that were to verify, this likely wouldn’t recurve early and may even soon after this start moving WSW for a period, which would be a warning signal as Yaakov ( @jconsor) and I have noted, especially with the La Nina(ish) ENSO:

 

 

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 Consistent with the above 12Z Euro and the run before that, the 0Z Euro still has a TS from an AEW coming off Africa on 9/11 with a strong high to its NNW:

 

 

End of run:

 

[jbenedet]

The least interesting disturbance is actually the one we all should be watching. The lemon over Central America—GFS and Euro develop this into a TD in a few days, and then tracks it into the northern Gulf in 96 hr. EPS, GEFS, likewise. NHC should be upping the medium term probs on this one. A deep long wave trough approaching central CONUS is likely to pick this up and send whatever does develop north. This would be a US direct impact.

[jconsor]

Besides the potential GOM system next week, I would watch the western Caribbean late next week into next weekend for development.  That area has been a hotspot so far this year for TCs and forecast upper level conditions look favorable.
 

 

[Windspeed]

After Larry, long range EPS guidance is suggestive of a pattern more susceptible to AEWs or resultant TCs being steered further into the WATL and Caribbean. If this pattern evolves, mid-Sept into October might not only be active with a favorable MJO, but with increased probabilities of land interaction. Something to watch.

[MJO812]

  On 9/3/2021 at 4:13 PM, Windspeed said:

After Larry, long range EPS guidance is suggestive of a pattern more susceptible to AEWs or resultant TCs being steered further into the WATL and Caribbean. If this pattern evolves, mid-Sept into October might not only be active with a favorable MJO, but with increased probabilities of land interaction. Something to watch.

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Little interesting storm on the gfs in the gulf 

[Windspeed]

  On 9/3/2021 at 4:45 PM, MJO812 said:

Little interesting storm on the gfs in the gulf 

That's the GFS developing the invest 91L in the SW GOM next week. It's certainly possible. Although I hope it doesn't resolve anything close to LA. They certainly don't need any kind of TC right now, even the weak TS variety.

[jbenedet]

  On 9/3/2021 at 4:50 PM, Windspeed said:

  On 9/3/2021 at 4:45 PM, MJO812 said:

Little interesting storm on the gfs in the gulf 

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That's the GFS developing the invest 91L in the SW GOM next week. It's certainly possible. Although I hope it doesn't resolve anything close to LA. They certainly don't need any kind of TC right now, even the weak TS variety.

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Important implications beyond that towards the northeast. Even if nothing organized develops. 

The trough and associated shortwave that picks it up means business.  Timing and orientation favors a general track towards same areas affected by Ida. Something as simple as a tropical connection could yield a lot of rain.

[GaWx]

  On 9/3/2021 at 7:02 AM, GaWx said:

 Consistent with the above 12Z Euro and the run before that, the 0Z Euro still has a TS from an AEW coming off Africa on 9/11 with a strong high to its NNW:

 

 

End of run:

 

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Consistent with the prior 3 Euro runs, the 12Z yet again has a TS just off Africa that originates from an AEW that comes off ~9/11. But this time it comes off quite far north (near 20N) and thus easily recurves just offshore:

[ldub23]

  On 9/2/2021 at 8:32 PM, madwx said:

This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes.   Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

 

 

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The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic  barren at  peak season.

[MJO812]

  On 9/3/2021 at 7:39 PM, ldub23 said:

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic  barren at  peak season.

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Now I know you are trolling 

[MattPetrulli]

  On 9/3/2021 at 7:39 PM, ldub23 said:

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic  barren at  peak season.

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What is the point of logging on to this website just to troll 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS at 360: most of these originate from a followup wave to the 9/11 one and almost all of these are moving pretty rapidly due W or just N of due W: 

 

12Z EPS H5 at 360 has strong ridging to the north allowing for pretty rapid movement W or just N of due W:  (the danger is not that this one high would move it all of the way to the other side but rather there's usually a mid ocean weakness sometimes followed by a handoff to a strengthening WAR).

[cptcatz]

  On 9/3/2021 at 7:58 PM, MattPetrulli said:

What is the point of logging on to this website just to troll 

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It's weird. Like Twitter politics trolling is understandable but like this guy obviously has an interest in weather but still chooses to use his time to come to a weather forum and troll a relatively small group of people. Kinda sad to me, but whatever floats his boat.

[Prospero]

  On 9/4/2021 at 12:12 AM, cptcatz said:

It's weird. Like Twitter politics trolling is understandable but like this guy obviously has an interest in weather but still chooses to use his time to come to a weather forum and troll a relatively small group of people. Kinda sad to me, but whatever floats his boat.

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I never know what to think. Familiar name, been here as long as I have been. Knows more than me on met stuff. Like a family member at a big table at a reunion and not sure if what he is saying is real or important, or maybe the beer speaking.

But who I am to say. I don't know. I read it all when I am here catching up.

Can I have another beer...

 

[ldub23]

  On 9/3/2021 at 7:58 PM, MattPetrulli said:

What is the point of logging on to this website just to troll 

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GFS shows some weak action in the GOM in 10 days while the euro has this:

 

 

Here  is the gfs. GOM cane and a weak cat1 forming  off SC

 

Couldnt ask for  a  more different scenario. If everyone wants please  vote  on which one will happen.

[MJO812]

Check out what the CMC does with 91L

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

IMBYism, I can think of 2 hurricanes in 100+ years that hit Texas in October.  The Equinox is a switch.  We get a 'real' cold front a week either side, the first real Autumn cold front.  (We get little dewpoint/windshift fronts all Summer, I'm talking a front ordinary people notice).  But 6Z/12Z GFS system is a real concern locally, today's Sept 14/17 prediction is 1-4 days after Ike landfall date and before Equinox.  A bullet to be dodged.  #91L looks pretty meh, but even a TD's rains near Ida's path is obviously bad.

[Prospero]

Watching the Major for entertainment, watching the lemon for other obvious concerns. But hey, what is a 30% chance in the big scheme of things...

[ldub23]

Atlantic still barren with horrid  conditions. GFS dropped the  cane  off SC  but stil has  a  monster in the GOM. Euro has rain showers.

[Prospero]

  On 9/4/2021 at 9:18 PM, ldub23 said:

Atlantic still barren with horrid  conditions. GFS dropped the  cane  off SC  but stil has  a  monster in the GOM. Euro has rain showers.

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Another monster in the Gulf this season is probably more likely than not, regardless of the models. NOAA has earned my respect the past few years, so seeing a lemon is more interesting than models. I do love the models too, but sometimes they have to catch up to NOAA. And as we know, countless Cat 3-5 storms the models predict 10 days out never materialize.

 

 

[ldub23]

  On 9/4/2021 at 9:28 PM, Prospero said:

Another monster in the Gulf this season is probably more likely than not, regardless of the models. NOAA has earned my respect the past few years, so seeing a lemon is more interesting than models. I do love the models too, but sometimes they have to catch up to NOAA. And as we know, countless Cat 3-5 storms the models predict 10 days out never materialize.

 

 

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Good  news  is the 18z GFS is  much weaker and  shows a  cat1 into LA.

[nycwinter]

  On 9/4/2021 at 10:56 PM, ldub23 said:

Good  news  is the 18z GFS is  much weaker and  shows a  cat1 into LA.

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and the models were not enthusiastic about ida early on ...

[ldub23]

  On 9/4/2021 at 11:00 PM, nycwinter said:

and the models were not enthusiastic about ida early on ...

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  On 9/4/2021 at 11:00 PM, nycwinter said:

and the models were not enthusiastic about ida early on ...

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True, but the GFS up till now has been very enthusiastic about this  possible  low. Its tough for anything to get too strong near the  US when low  pressure  is  locked  over the  NW ATL.

[GaWx]

 The signal for genesis of an AEW in mid-Sep along with mainly W movement is still there on the 12Z EPS. However, regarding the strong AEW still progged by several models to come off Africa ~9/11, the trend is for a sharp recurve due to a weakness in the far E Atlantic, which has gotten more prominent on the Euro suites as the high is further west in the mid Atlantic Ocean.

 So, it appears that there will probably be a strong AEW moving off 9/11 probably followed by a sharp recurve followed by an AEW moving off near 9/14-5 that then likely moves W to WNW well out into the Atlantic. We’ll see though as that’s still 10 days out and much can change just like the changes with the 9/11 wave.

 Here’s the 12Z EPS still showing a strong signal for a W to WNW moving AEW just after midmonth, which would need to be watched for late month:

[GaWx]

0Z EPS is still very active in the MDR late in the run/something  to watch for late Sept:

 

H5:

[ldub23]

  On 9/2/2021 at 8:32 PM, madwx said:

This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes.   Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

 

 

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GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid  conditions.

[cptcatz]

  On 9/5/2021 at 10:57 AM, ldub23 said:

GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid  conditions.

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GFS and Euro are trash in the long term. How do you still base your opinion on their 10-15 day forecast? It makes you look like an idiot after you're wrong time after time.