Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 KTRK, ABC-13, 'chief met' (60 hour MSU green screen certificate) hyping the European run. KHOU-11 has degreed mets, but showing a golf tournament, for some odd reason. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 That 12ZEURO shows "Ida" becoming a hurricane out to sea, "Julian" becoming a major hurricane slamming the middle TX coast, and "Kate" as a hurricane spinning west towards the Lesser Antilles. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: That 12ZEURO shows "Ida" becoming a hurricane out to sea, "Julian" becoming a major hurricane slamming the middle TX coast, and "Kate" as a hurricane spinning west towards the Lesser Antilles. We shall see. Not much sleep to be had through most of October. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Long range Euro is still showing a low traveling the Atlantic in the long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Euro and CMC almost exactly the same with a nice sized MDR storm with a developing wave trailing right behind. Both models have been bullish on this for a number of runs, GFS still not sure. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 I think we will see a few fish storms, but one or two may slide under the radar. Think 1998. We had several out to sea (Hurricanes Danielle, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa) but Hurricane Georges slipped under the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I think we will see a few fish storms, but one or two may slide under the radar. Think 1998. We had several out to sea (Hurricanes Danielle, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa) but Hurricane Georges slipped under the radar. He is most likely thinking many home grown storms . The water along the southeast coast are warm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He is most likely thinking many home grown storms . The water along the southeast coast are warm . Right but I'm talking about Cape Verdes as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Right but I'm talking about Cape Verdes as well. The next 2 storms look like gulf hits. We shall see after that. MJO is going into 4 and 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Decent signal on GFS and its ensembles for several days, a storm already on the NHC radar that **probably** stays South of Texas, and another Caribbean storm that may enter the Gulf and **probably doesn't** hit Mexico. (Texas to Florida). The one that probably misses Texas is at 60% already for 5 days despite currently almost a nothing burger on satellite near the Venezuela coast South of Hispaniola on model support alone. Euro has had a couple of runs of the orange into S. Texas, but most ensembles don't support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 12Z GFS on the border, and then, like yesterday's 12Z Euro, meanders the low around Texas, w/ greater than 10 inch storm total QPF over much of coastal Texas. I qualified the misses Texas above w/probably, in 2008 I confidently predicted a hurricane would not hit Texas. No training for arm chair amateurs, but I qualify every pseudo-prediction since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 971mb is actually one of the strongest TCs I've seen on the CMC. Looks enormous also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Latest Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 So the Euro has gone from Mexico to Texas and now Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: So the Euro has gone from Mexico to Texas and now Louisiana. Its ensembles say Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana. Tuesday morning, from Weather Nerds. If 'the trend is my friend', this hits Tampa Bay, 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 18z GFS hasn't finished with a landfall yet but I have seen enough hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 18z GFS hasn't finished with a landfall yet but I have seen enough hahaha Drops to 945MB prior to landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Potential Julian sounds like Carla Cradle music to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 Not quite Harvey, whose floods closed all the Houston area schools for 2 weeks, but the 18Z GFS storm just meanders after landfall with onshore flow to the N of the modeled center. If there is good news, models still seem to be trending East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 The morning ensembles from the European and GFS (EPS & GEFS) still show a wide window of possibilities, generally focused on northern Mexico to the Upper Texas Coast. It would appear the 12Z ECMWF was a distinct northern outlier, while the 18Z GFS is 'centered' off the ensembles. I'm not touching the intensity forecast yet, but as others have said, a large on-shore wind field suggests a considerable heavy rain threat well inland and the potential for a prolonged surge event. Of-course, that's all just heresy based on weather model voodoo. Let us see where trends proceed over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 The Euro appeared to end up further north and east because it consolidated energy along the northern end of the wave axis while GFS focuses development further south. The overall 500mb synoptic pattern looks very similar between both models. I think we’ll continue to see windshield wiping on the models until we get a more concrete surface center (no surprise). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 We're in the medium range now. It's becoming very apparent that the upper level pattern will most likely be primed to support a hurricane in the GOM. The question is the latitude where low level circulation closes off. Obviously a lower latitude will spend more time over the Yucatán and will have a longer organizational period of development versus a more northern region of TCG. This matters for if we are looking at a potential major Harvey-like hurricane or something more slow to intensify into landfall. Nothing is in stone until we have that vortex placement regardless of all the crazy outputs we may yet see from the models. That being said, the signal is clearly on the up that we have a TC in the GOM next week. You do a double-take at these outflow patterns in the 72 to 126 hour range. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 24, 2021 Share Posted August 24, 2021 The wave itself looked like nothing when NHC put the X on it for development, based on the models, but it now looks like a tropical wave the average blob watcher (like me) would notice. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=watl&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 On 8/23/2021 at 10:14 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Not much sleep to be had through most of October. @ldub23went awfully quiet all of a sudden... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 10 hours ago, MJO812 said: Dry air and shear making conditions unfavorable for any possible TC along the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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