MJO812 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: The long-range ensembles show a flurry of activity right on time in late August. Lack of sleep incoming 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 New gfs is stronger and hits Florida Panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 The AEW south of the Cabo Verdes is healthy and should be watched closely for early development. It looks to be gaining organization as there is clearly some decent mid level cyclonic rotation. This has a chance to become our first pure Cape Verde long-tracking hurricane of 2021 as it tracks W into the MDR. The model support has already been established. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The AEW south of the Cabo Verdes is healthy and should be watched closely for early development. It looks to be gaining organization as there is clearly some decent mid level cyclonic rotation. This has a chance to become our first pure Cape Verde long-tracking hurricane of 2021 as it tracks W into the MDR. The model support has already been established. Dude, I hadn't even looked until you said something. Looks like I won't be sleeping for a while 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Dude, I hadn't even looked until you said something. Looks like I won't be sleeping for a while Yeah it appears things are really heating up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The AEW south of the Cabo Verdes is healthy and should be watched closely for early development. It looks to be gaining organization as there is clearly some decent mid level cyclonic rotation. This has a chance to become our first pure Cape Verde long-tracking hurricane of 2021 as it tracks W into the MDR. The model support has already been established. Let’s see if it stays north of DR/Cuba, if so water very warm down there and would aid growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Matt, I believe the wave you mention is the same one many of the long-range ensembles show as a potential storm system in the Caribbean or Gulf down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png You keep doing this all the time You did this with this current storm we are tracking and look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: You keep doing this all the time You did this with this current storm we are tracking and look. I said AUG will have 1 or 2 weak storms. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 I know the focus is on PTC6 (and rightfully so) but the wave in the eastern Atlantic looks like it might be trouble down the road. It's a long ways out but it may have a chance to get pretty strong if it avoids land. It's just been tagged as Invest 95L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 4 hours ago, ldub23 said: Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png Euro has been garbage with TC development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro has been garbage with TC development. Very active times ahead Mjo will be favorable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 12z NAVGEM suggests intensity FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 10, 2021 Share Posted August 10, 2021 PTC 6 thread is pretty awful so far 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 Remnants from Fred could very well turn into Grace and Henri to follow over the same area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 1 hour ago, WeatherAU said: Remnants from Fred could very well turn into Grace and Henri to follow over the same area. You’re kidding right??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: You’re kidding right??? Another run in a row suggesting Grace could form off the SE coast. Grace "The Perfect Storm" "Andrea Gail" 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.png 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.pngIf it means you'll stop posting 192 hr garbage maps from operational runs, I'll let you cancel the season right now. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 95L is now 20/40, although SHIPS hasn't been run on it for 2 model cycles, I suspect soon to be 3 model cycles. I don't think SHIPS takes a lot of computer power, not surprised they wouldn't run the dynamic hurricane models on something ~5 days from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 58 minutes ago, ldub23 said: If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.png STOP POSTING 192HOUR MAPS AND TAKING IT TO HEART 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: STOP POSTING 192HOUR MAPS AND TAKING IT TO HEART Really could just leave it at STOP POSTING lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said: as 95l heads west it will crash into the mjo, this will favor a big storm to form. Lets see if the Euro starts showing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said: Its showing a 1006 mb ts from 95l. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 18z GFS has a strong High this is going west northwest IMO FWIW long range GFS of course. Will update this post till landfall or OTS scenario. Lots of rain from what looks like to be Grace 12in SE coast FWIW Grace is looking like an absorption Fred remnants... another run in a row suggesting this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted August 11, 2021 Share Posted August 11, 2021 I tell ya the GFS doesn’t really want to do much with Fred . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 OK, a rerun due to popular demand... What will this one do over the mountains?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherAU Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 Wow at the 00z GFS again remnants from Fred, earlier in the run shown inject energy to rotate another low most likely named Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 12, 2021 Share Posted August 12, 2021 HMON shows 95L hitting PR as a near major Meanwhile the HWRF shows an open wave Gotta love the hurricane models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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