cptcatz Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 HWRF brings it down to 987 mb before being shredded by Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh? Thought we were in la nina? I thought the same thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh? Thought we were in la nina? I thought the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 I thought the same thingShould have rephrased that El Niño supposed to develop. Not in one yet but I could see a scenario where we have less then forecasted named storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jessy89 said: Should have rephrased that El Niño supposed to develop. Not in one yet but I could see a scenario where we have less then forecasted named storms . Dr. Phil says there's a very very low chance of El Nino forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Dr. Phil says there's a very very low chance of El Nino forming See what happens but some of these winter forecast are quite outrageous. Some are calling for a lot more winter like weather in the southeast. That in which looks sorta like a El Niño type of winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Amped vort is running this thread 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, Jessy89 said: See what happens but some of these winter forecast are quite outrageous. Some are calling for a lot more winter like weather in the southeast. That in which looks sorta like a El Niño type of winter . Hey Jessy, Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it. Check out this animation showing significant recooling: SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Amped vort is running this thread Weenies galore While still obviously disorganized, both invests are holding their own and the signal for development of 94L has increased across guidance. We may finally have something real to track. Will be interesting to see if the overnight period aids in helping either organize a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Weenies galore While still obviously disorganized, both invests are holding their own and the signal for development of 94L has increased across guidance. We may finally have something real to track. Will be interesting to see if the overnight period aids in helping either organize a bit. fraid it might be too early to spot an eye with the nighttime convective burst I'll try but doubt it, maybe AmpedVort can find one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Hey Jessy, Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it. Check out this animation showing significant recooling: SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr I gotcha I’m just letting my hope get up to high. Nice of you to find me here not on the other place anymore . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 Am I the only one that doesn't understand 99% of AmpedVort's posts? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Am I the only one that doesn't understand 99% of AmpedVort's posts? I don't either, but as that is true for many other well regarded posters, it surely reflects my ignorance. Frankly, this stuff just is not easy, so kudos to those who catch a glimmer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 1 minute ago, AmpedVort said: Cannot believe this has a chance to get a name - Fred Can You pass My way, What your Smoking? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, etudiant said: I don't either, but as that is true for many other well regarded posters, it surely reflects my ignorance. Frankly, this stuff just is not easy, so kudos to those who catch a glimmer! Not that I’m the fountain of knowledge lol but if you ever have questions please just ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 8, 2021 Share Posted August 8, 2021 DAMAGE -> D = DI | _ID -> DAMAGE ON SEVERAL ROTATIONS |Ida GAME = DAMAGE| CEIM CAME AC_UI(WE UI - User Interface) FWIW Ida is expected in Early October or End of Sep based on CFS and logical thinking if they gonna fit within a short period of two months Ida GAME if this means anything at all ::: could be a deal breaker or the first major of the season. ADD-ON: WEP (WEB UI) W to M MRI M_RI I_AI RAM UI_R (R - Resistance) JIRA - JITTER AI R (JITTER AIR) ECMWF upgrades are not good...What? Dude, chill. Ramble all you want but at least make sense. Ida by early October? I mean, unless our closest star suddenly and rapidly expands into a Red Giant phase, I'd imagine we'll have the "I" storm before the end of September. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, AmpedVort said: DAMAGE -> D = DI | _ID -> DAMAGE ON SEVERAL ROTATIONS |Ida GAME = DAMAGE| CEIM CAME AC_UI(WE UI - User Interface) FWIW Ida is expected in Early October or End of Sep based on CFS and logical thinking if they gonna fit within a short period of two months Ida GAME if this means anything at all ::: could be a deal breaker or the first major of the season. ADD-ON: WEP (WEB UI) W to M MRI M_RI I_AI RAM UI_R (R - Resistance) JIRA - JITTER AI R (JITTER AIR) ECMWF upgrades are not good... I have no clue what this post is about 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, AmpedVort said: Interesting times ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have no clue what this post is about Me neither! Must be a new type of differential equation. After all, it was the least favorite course I took towards obtaining my meteorological degree...aside from Calc II. Then again, I’m not sure anyone could decipher it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 What the actual hell happened to this thread 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Look, I mean this with all due respect...maybe throttle back on the posts a bit here bud. Meaningful discussion can't happen if posts don't make sense. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 minute ago, AmpedVort said: Who is willing to post the GFS outcomes? I want the outcomes to circulate in the forum for good reasons just like the good old days when forums.accuweather.com had "live" posts on GFS runs. Or rules changed IDK? What is going on? Posting the GFS is fine, people aren't really talking that much about it because there isn't a lot to really discuss IMO, but trying to attach hidden meaning to what F264 means is just a little much. Again, not trying to be rude, but I think you'll get more robust discussion if you keep your posts focused on the invest, the overall environment, and computer model runs. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 8 hours ago, Jessy89 said: Should have rephrased that El Niño supposed to develop. Not in one yet but I could see a scenario where we have less then forecasted named storms . El Niño is not supposed to develop. We are currently under a La Niña watch and the latest MEI index reading was -1.5, which indicates strong La Niña. The subsurface is only getting colder in the enso region, and when taking Nina climo into account as well as model forecasts the La Niña will likely continue increasing in strength into the fall and winter. In the model forecasts there is still a lot of variability, with the cfsv2 ensembles ranging from -.4 to -2.0 in the Enzo 3.4 region during the nov-dec timeframe. Right now the latest data indicates that the lower values are more likely to verify. I’m expecting around a -1.6 peak in the enso 3.4 region for this upcoming La Niña event which would be a strong La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, AmpedVort said: Your posts are nonsense. I mean posting and deciphering 488hr CFS forecast maps and finding eye's in invest's? Really? I advise you to come back to earth and post some logical things before you're not allowed to post anymore period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 8 hours ago, GaWx said: Hey Jessy, Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it. Check out this animation showing significant recooling: SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr 8 hours ago, GaWx said: Hey Jessy, Based on the current drop in SSTs, the cooling subsurface, the forecast models, solidly positive 30 and 90 day SOI averages, +OLR, and the fact that we're already into August, I see very little chance for El Nino by winter despite my preference for it. Check out this animation showing significant recooling: SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ OLR: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/olr Damn is that a pool of -5 in the subsurface of the Enso region? I would be shocked if we are Enso neutral by winter never mind El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 what the hell? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 43 minutes ago, AmpedVort said: 2x6x4 = 48 "in 48 Hours" F264 is a code for a special EF-4 WIND hope this does not turn into a monster! The formula is subtract 2 from 6 = 4 and check if result matches the last number if it matches then EF-4 (range mid-first up to last number) winds are possible within the COC of a TC Learned this back in the days where IT certifications were talking about SUPERCOMPUTERS so they taught us SOCIAL ENGINEERING AND CRYPTIC BIOS POST CODES... Keep in mind also UV and RI and a missing S signifying VIRU (S) like infected vapor producing circuit (NOT A BIGGIE) What is this post? I have no idea what I just read lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 minute ago, AmpedVort said: I have no clue as well. Some discussion on the topic "match" the numbers to a logical meaning. Like a game or something... Obviously somebody is throwing wrecking balls in here but it is not me believe me! Well I came here for a discussion and that's tough when I see you posting nonsense like every 30 seconds 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 Another member added to my ignore list. Problem solved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted August 9, 2021 Share Posted August 9, 2021 1 hour ago, AmpedVort said: I have no clue as well. Some discussion on the topic "match" the numbers to a logical meaning. Like a game or something... Obviously somebody is throwing wrecking balls in here but it is not me believe me! Did you smoke something funny? I think you might have, when you’re high everything can be kinda a blur but if you think hard enough you will remember what it is you smoked. Whatever it was, I want some of it. You are smoking some good shit my man 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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