cptcatz Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Well that's interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 26 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Well that's interesting Lol. But interesting enough the Canadian has some kind of entity also the last 2 runs. Something to watch for again coming out of the BOC? Just looking at the the pattern over the last week +/- . We might be locked into the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Next run, still something but quite a change from the previous one. I'm not boarding the windows here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 This run has a 980 mb storm making a left turn into New England lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: This run has a 980 mb storm making a left turn into New England lol I mean they are due for another century storm soon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 18Z and 0Z GFS have Florida hurricane threats just past 240 hours. The developing system should be apparent by next Monday morning in the Caribbean if the model runs are correct. I think the GFS saw what became Claudette, but developed it too quickly, for several days, before it finally got going. Would not be surprised if there is nothing in the Caribbean in a week but the GFS keeps showing development beginning in a week from the model run for several days. It (and several ensemble perturbations) are seeing something. I think we've all seen the GFS have a TC a week out for several days, and as often as not, nothing ever develops. Nothing on Op Euro, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 The windshield wiper effect is in full go mode with the 06z GFS back with a major hurricane into Texas. Regardless, we're at like 3 straight days of GFS runs showing this system forming so if doesn't that would be a huge flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 35 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The windshield wiper effect is in full go mode with the 06z GFS back with a major hurricane into Texas. Regardless, we're at like 3 straight days of GFS runs showing this system forming so if doesn't that would be a huge flop. Hurricane Ping Pong in the Gulfport of Mexico between Texas and Florida... They must be nervous in western LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 The 0z GFS back at it with a developing TC entering the GOM roughly 200-220 hours out. Something to watch in the BOC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Ensembles are really trying hard to resolve some kind of cyclogenesis in the MDR next week. It wouldn't be unprecedented. Thermal support is a little meh but SSTs have warmed moderately the past few weeks. If nothing else, it might make things interesting to track into the Eastern Caribbean graveyard that is typical at this point in the season. The suspect easterly wave does look very robust/healthy at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 If these waves keep coming like this in September...watch out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: If these waves keep coming like this in September...watch out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nondevelopment, recurve, or greater Antilles. Super fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: Nondevelopment, recurve, or greater Antilles. Super fun. Get ready for an active season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 00z Euro now backed off development altogether. Interesting how development COULD be within 24-48 hours and the models still can't figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: 00z Euro now backed off development altogether. Interesting how development COULD be within 24-48 hours and the models still can't figure it out. I trust my instincts over the EURO and we are looking at a significant influence from the tropics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 3 hours ago, cptcatz said: 00z Euro now backed off development altogether. Interesting how development COULD be within 24-48 hours and the models still can't figure it out. And there are times when nothing is expected and 12 hours later there is a Tropical Depression in the Gulf on its way to being a TS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Watch the low pressure system that has formed off the Carolina coastline. Very common spot for quick spin ups 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Watch the low pressure system that has formed off the Carolina coastline. Very common spot for quick spin ups Good eye on the broad scale of things. But not really the location to be watching. Looking at satellite and radar. I think a broad large scale trough axis trying to setup off the Carolina,GA Coast across Florida into the GOM. So just judging by the models and possible quick spin up possibility maybe central and northern GOM stretching down to the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Tonight's convection associated with the weak front combined with East Coast and West Coast Seabreeze collisions. Have spun up a mid-level and surface LP off of Clearwater, St Pete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 41 minutes ago, FLweather said: Tonight's convection associated with the weak front combined with East Coast and West Coast Seabreeze collisions. Have spun up a mid-level and surface LP off of Clearwater, St Pete. How many times we've awaken to a TD off our coast (Clearwater, St Pete) when going to bed nothing. Good eye FLweather, you have experience around here I take it. Not that anything will develop, but it does happen on the fly as we all know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Anything on the models for the next 7-10 days in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 1 hour ago, David-LI said: Anything on the models for the next 7-10 days in the Atlantic? That disturbance south of Bermuda should bring something to your area in 7-10 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreekWeatherGod95 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: That disturbance south of Bermuda should bring something to your area in 7-10 days. Yep 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: That disturbance south of Bermuda should bring something to your area in 7-10 days. Not the area of development. Cant really believe the NHC would give that a 10 percent. Along an elongated trough axis extending south into the GOM stretching down to the Yucatan. Central GOM is to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 1 hour ago, FLweather said: Not the area of development. Cant really believe the NHC would give that a 10 percent. Along an elongated trough axis extending south into the GOM stretching down to the Yucatan. Central GOM is to watch. Even if it doesn't become a bonafide TC will deliver more than most TCs. I can see potential from miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, wizard02111 said: Tropical wave behind 95l likely to be a long track dangerous CV hurricane. OK, I'll bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 No storms till august. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Tezeta said: No storms till august. My amateur non-met yet seasoned lifelong storm obsessed watcher feeling is a late or very late season with a serious punch. Maybe even a short season at that, but enough to keep us on our toes for a bit. That said, wish the best and safety for everyone. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 The area of disturbed wx off the SE coast has been designated Invest 96L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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