StormchaserChuck! Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 El Nino coming, Weak to Moderate SSTs are super warm and warming. We had a streak of like 10 consecutive years with El Nino of 12 or less names storms, and some even in the middle of a really active period in the 2000s. In 2018-2019, the last El Nino we had 15 named storms. It will be interesting to see if can break that 15 number mark, it seems other conditions are super favorable. (We had 8 named storms in 14-15 a weak El Nino lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 AccuWeather's 2021 Hurricane Outlook. https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweathers-2021-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/924431?utm_campaign=AccuWeather&utm_content=&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1KE-6pzRVCGemMts9kBZJfLnT2bLb5H0X8UPEmcgZk2WEGBjwcT5tDb2A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 3, 2021 Author Share Posted April 3, 2021 Lots of arctic ice melt this year. Some analogs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season 19,19,14,18,30 Love to see the structure of some of these storms this year with warmENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 TSR and CSU should be coming out with forecasts any day now. Anyone know when we can expect them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Garcia Posted April 4, 2021 Share Posted April 4, 2021 The Azores/Bermuda High was further west last year. This covered peninsular fla from direct strikes. But this year they expect the High to further East, and slightly north, this leaves the west coast of Fl and the entire east coast of the US open to hurricanes. There will be further forecasts as May 15 draws near. The SW caribe sea is forecasted to be a bit cooler, and if this proves to be true, central america, from Nicaragua to Panama, might catch a break this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 Interesting graphs being tweeted. This one shows the average ENSO for peak season is heading to a weak Nina: While this one shows a weak Nina producing the highest ACE: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 Unlike @StormchaserChuck!, they are not calling for an El Nino. Weak Nina to neutral at the most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 10, 2021 Author Share Posted April 10, 2021 I'll tell you what, if it's Weak Nina it will be one heck of a hurricane season. That cold subsurface bubble at -200/170 today is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Garcia Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 I have seen no warming in the E Pac, but it seems a bit weaker, though the cooler waters cover an enormous area N and S of the equator. The edge of the cooler waters is near the Hawian Isles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 17, 2021 Author Share Posted April 17, 2021 Looking like an El Nino, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 On 4/17/2021 at 4:10 PM, StormchaserChuck! said: Looking like an El Nino, guys. I'd love to know where you're getting your data from being that the models are not showing that... https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384171583023968259 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Cool neutral at best ASO in my opinion. I think a niño is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 110/-50 is about to hit +2c in mid-April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 21, 2021 Share Posted April 21, 2021 /thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 22, 2021 Share Posted April 22, 2021 10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: /thread Not good for tropical season ( good for the weenies) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 3, 2021 Share Posted May 3, 2021 The first GFS fantasyland tropical system of the 2021 Atlantic season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Hmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 30% on the 5-day: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda by late Thursday and produce gale-force winds. The low could then move southwestward over warmer waters on Friday and acquire some subtropical characteristics before the system moves toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 19, 2021 Share Posted May 19, 2021 40% now with regard to 5 day odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Quote 800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 20, 2021 Share Posted May 20, 2021 Here we go again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 20, 2021 Author Share Posted May 20, 2021 Since 2010, +NAO May20-Jun1: 30,15,15,11,19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 On 5/20/2021 at 1:29 PM, andyhb said: Here we go again. Always can go up if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 GFS has been pretty consistent with this homegrown system developing around June 10. This run also adds in a twin out in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 Today's GFS model: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 CPC highlighting the western Caribbean mid month for development 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 getting warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 5, 2021 Share Posted June 5, 2021 Don't remember seeing a graphic like this for a few years. Maybe they changed what is normal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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