wdrag Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 HRRR and 3KNAM offer a squall line of sorts in the warm sector 6P-10P, accentuating NJ s of I78 where the Significant Tornado parameter and Supercell composite indices are notably large. This is on the tail end of of 75kt 850 sw jet over LI, just ahead of a cold front with marginal CAPE. (That 850 jet initially causes the midday deluge's in parts of our area with possible flood advisory for poor drainage flooded roads). Should not be much hail, if any. Max Updraft helicity 2-5KM has some swaths across much of the region. Not saying it will happen but should at least have gusts near 40 kt with the line as per HRRR/EC gust algorithms. HRRR prior to 09z/28 has isolated G50-60KT. R# looks more permissive than for this past Fridays wind advisory event . I think most of any severe should be NJ shore but could extend east. Even a small chance of G40-45KT in the strong southerlies for LI, well ahead of the squall line., NWS OKX has a wind advisory posted for the OKX forecast area later this evening-Monday. That should verify with scattered G40kt, especially 3AM-Noon Monday, associated with the cold core arriving (CAA) and pressure rises. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Getting some heavy elevated convection along the warm front. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just had a nice long rumble of thunder here, might be the first one this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 53 minutes ago, Cfa said: Just had a nice long rumble of thunder here, might be the first one this the year. My heaviest downpours in a while here in SW Suffolk. Looks like some areas picked up around .50 last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 More thunder and heavy rain. Had one lightning strike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Picked up 0.27" of rain so far today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: My heaviest downpours in a while here in SW Suffolk. Looks like some areas picked up around .50 last hour. It really poured here, rates at an inch per hour at times. Over an inch so far. Foggy now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Looks like a thin squall line on radar approaching Central Pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 51/51/S5/Fog. .5" for the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Picked up about .76" of rain this morning, I don't think I'll reach an inch today but we'll see. Stongest gusts so far have been in the 25-30 mph range. My anemometer is in a new spot now on the roof of my parents garage, it used to be on the roof of my aunt and uncles house, which was on the water, had no trees around, and was taller so i usually got great wind measurements there. Friday was the first test and it had a gust of 41 mph (probably wouldve had something around 50 mph at the old location) so maybe it'll beat that later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Fog starting to roll in here in KHPN, temp currently @ 53. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Watch posted for the southernmost part of the forum. Minor wind damage so far e PA in sql vcnty CXY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 The warm front just came through MMU. 17:17 66.2 58.6 5.8 SW 29.27 29.47 Mist 3.00 600 OK 16:45 62.6 57.2 0.0 N 29.28 29.48 Mist 1.25 200 OK 15:45 60.8 56.5 0.0 N 29.30 29.50 Mist 0.75 200 O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Noting wind G 40kt near or just after of the sql now se PA southward. NAM BL wind supposed to be near 33kt PHL around 00z. Think it's lookingn up for a few wind gusts 40-45kt southern part of the forum in NJ near and just after the line passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Squall line has just passed my location. It’s a mover however no lightning or thunder here with it. Wind gust to 19 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 .9" rain here earlier today. Temp made it up to 57 around 5pm. 54 now (6:53pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Squall line looks to be intensifying on radar as it makes it's way through western NJ. No lightning as per the radar apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 52 KT KILG...biggest 60 MPH winds may be n MD across s NJ but was may allow damage further N per warnings into the I78 region? Thanks for keeping up with this. May be offline shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 18 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Squall line looks to be intensifying on radar as it makes it's way through western NJ. No lightning as per the radar apps. I think this warning was issued due to strong winds as reported by spotters and/or radar indicated. No lightning on any of my devices either. If you you read the warning statement it does speak to high winds associated with this feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just now, Tatamy said: I think this warning was issued due to strong winds as reported by spotters and/or radar indicated. No lightning on any of my devices either. If you you read the warning statement it does speak to high winds associated with this feature. Agreed. At 712 PM EDT, a strong gust front with heavy downpours and possibly a thunderstorm was located along a line extending from Rockaway to near Martinsville to near Levittown, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. * Gust front with heavy downpours and possibly a thunderstorm will be near... Plainfield around 725 PM EDT. Summit and Millburn around 730 PM EDT. Orange and Clark around 735 PM EDT. Elizabeth and Passaic around 740 PM EDT. Newark and Lyndhurst around 745 PM EDT. Jersey City and Bayonne around 750 PM EDT. The Verrazano Narrows Bridge and Midtown Manhattan around 755 PM EDT. Flatbush and Coney Island around 800 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Multiple reports PHL airports 42-43kt. TTN only 35 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just now, Tatamy said: I think this warning was issued due to strong winds as reported by spotters and/or radar indicated. No lightning on any of my devices either. If you you read the warning statement it does speak to high winds associated with this feature. And just like that my Skyscan is detecting lightning. It is the nature of these features that they can start producing lightning very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 28, 2021 Author Share Posted March 28, 2021 Well at least warnings up to about NYC and the NJ coast. We'll see what kind of damage occurs, probably spotty,. Have to like like looking at those predictors mentioned this morning. Imperfect but helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 That line is racing at about 60mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Heavy rain and decent winds but nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Some pretty good gusts with the front. I think if this were later in the season we would've seen widespread severe gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 we are really getting slapped around here in Middlesex. wind is coming from unexpected directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Incoming NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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