April 2021 General Discussion

[Powerball]

36 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

In the new 1991-2020 normals coming out, ORD warmest min in July went up 3 degrees, warmest max stayed the same, and coldest min in January went up 2 degrees, coldest max stayed the same.

Meanwhile at RFD coldest min in Jan went up 1 degree, coldest max stayed the same and in July the warmest min went up 1 degree and the warmest max went down 1 degree.

Very obvious increased UHI signal there for ORD.

Normal seasonal snowfall at ORD went up 2.1" to 38.4", only 0.4" at RFD to 37.1". Normal annual precip went up about 1" at both sites.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Do you know what date the new normals will officially be released?

I imagine they're going to be warmer for much of the country. It was definitely a more torchy period than not.

[hawkeye_wx]

The heavier rain remained just east and south of Cedar Rapids, but I picked up a solid 0.73".

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

In the new 1991-2020 normals coming out, ORD warmest min in July went up 3 degrees, warmest max stayed the same, and coldest min in January went up 2 degrees, coldest max stayed the same.

Meanwhile at RFD coldest min in Jan went up 1 degree, coldest max stayed the same and in July the warmest min went up 1 degree and the warmest max went down 1 degree.

Very obvious increased UHI signal there for ORD.

Normal seasonal snowfall at ORD went up 2.1" to 38.4", only 0.4" at RFD to 37.1". Normal annual precip went up about 1" at both sites.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Wow.  Unfortunately, your post is probably the most shocking in this forum's history, but will get overlooked by many.  Probably deserves its own thread.  Chicago is becoming St. Louis at night.  This should also be a huge news story for the general public.

Does anyone know the increase in average annual temp at ORD, after switching to the 1991-2020 normals?

[TimB]

48 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Wow.  Unfortunately, your post is probably the most shocking in this forum's history, but will get overlooked by many.  Probably deserves its own thread.  Chicago is becoming St. Louis at night.  This should also be a huge news story for the general public.

Does anyone know the increase in average annual temp at ORD, after switching to the 1991-2020 normals?

It’s my understanding that warm mins are one of the greatest contributors to heat wave deaths, so yeah, the average July min increasing by 3 degrees in just 10 years at any location should be a huge story for both weather enthusiasts and the general public.

[Hoosier]

Out of curiosity, someone should check what the 1991-2020 normals will be for St. Louis. I bet their min temps went up significantly as well.  I have noticed some pretty nasty UHI around there during some of the bigger heat days.

[RCNYILWX]

Wow.  Unfortunately, your post is probably the most shocking in this forum's history, but will get overlooked by many.  Probably deserves its own thread.  Chicago is becoming St. Louis at night.  This should also be a huge news story for the general public. Does anyone know the increase in average annual temp at ORD, after switching to the 1991-2020 normals?

 

We haven't publicly released the data yet, but I'm sure it'll get a lot of attention when it comes out in May. The normal annual mean went from 49.9 to 51.4.  

Here's the full 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 breakdown for annual normals at ORD:

 

1981-2010/1991-2020

Max: 59.1/59.6

Min: 40.8/43.1

Mean: 49.9/51.4

 

Days Tmax >=90: 14/13

Days Tmax

Days Tmin

Days Tmax

 

Precip: 36.89/37.86

Snow: 36.3"/38.4"

 

Days >=0.01" precip: 124/126

Days >=0.10" precip: 69/72

Days >=0.50" precip: 23/24

Days >=1.00" precip: 8/8

 

If anyone wants me to post the full RFD data too, let me know. The normal mean there went from 49.2 in 1981-2010 to 49.5 in 1991-2020. Again in comparing ORD to RFD, this shows the huge UHI contribution at ORD.

 

Edit: Please don't share this data beyond the forum. Technically wasn't supposed to post it while in the QC phase of the new normals release.

 

 

 

 

 

[beavis1729]

Thanks RC...I guess it’s good to know that RFD’s numbers are much less dramatic, and therefore nearly all of the increase is driven by UHI...although perhaps warmer lake temps could come into play too.

But even a 0.3F increase in the annual mean temperature at RFD is noteworthy over such a short period of time. It’s a slow and steady bleed.

Another piece of data, if I have my numbers right: ORD’s average low during mid January was 13F (1961-1990 normals), and is now 18F (1991-2020 normals). So, an increase of 5F over 30 years. Just speechless...

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

We haven't publicly released the data yet, but I'm sure it'll get a lot of attention when it comes out in May. The normal annual mean went from 49.9 to 51.4.  

Here's the full 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 breakdown for annual normals at ORD:

 

1981-2010/1991-2020

Max: 59.1/59.6

Min: 40.8/43.1

Mean: 49.9/51.4

 

Days Tmax >=90: 14/13

Days Tmax

Days Tmin

Days Tmax

 

Precip: 36.89/37.86

Snow: 36.3"/38.4"

 

Days >=0.01" precip: 124/126

Days >=0.10" precip: 69/72

Days >=0.50" precip: 23/24

Days >=1.00" precip: 8/8

 

If anyone wants me to post the full RFD data too, let me know. The normal mean there went from 49.2 in 1981-2010 to 49.5 in 1991-2020. Again in comparing ORD to RFD, this shows the huge UHI contribution at ORD.

 

Edit: Please don't share this data beyond the forum. Technically wasn't supposed to post it while in the QC phase of the new normals release.

 

 

 

 

 

It is good to see the UHI get accurately represented as most people live in cities these days.

[michsnowfreak]

Using the raw data from xmacis, here's the full 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 breakdown for annual normals at DTW:

Biggest takeaways:

~1980s DTW was a radiating magnet, the 2010s UHI rapidly increased (and i mean rapidly, altho it has leveled off in recent years and seems pretty steady)

~Both precip and snowfall are increasing, one note on precip: though its getting better, sometimes asos is still terrible in dry or windy snowfalls, and those amts are not always adjusted by the nws. In the 80s, a standard rain gauge was used. Take away...realistically you can probably add a bit of precip to the winter months

~The warm months (May-Oct) are the main increases in temps.

 

1981-2010/1991-2020

Max: 59.0/59.5

Min: 41.3/42.1

Mean: 50.1/50.8

 

Days Tmax >=90: 12/13

Days Tmin <=32: 124/120

Days Tmin <=0: 4/4

 

Precip: 33.45/34.29

Snow: 43.0"/44.6"

 

Days >=0.01" precip: 135/136

Days >=0.10" precip: 73/73

Days >=0.50" precip: 21/21

Days >=1.00" precip: 6/6

 

Days >= 1" snowdepth: 46/47

Days >= 5" snowdepth: 15/18

Days >= 10" snowdepth: 3/5

 

MONTHLY BREAKDOWNS 1981-2010/1991-2020

TEMPS -- PRECIP -- SNOW

Jan: 25.3/25.8 -- 1.98"/2.23" -- 12.8"/13.9"

Feb: 27.9/28.1 -- 2.01"/2.08" -- 10.5"/12.2"

Mar: 36.9/37.3 -- 2.28"/2.43" -- 6.8"/6.2"

Apr: 49.0/49.0 -- 2.90"/3.26" -- 1.6"/1.5"

May: 59.4/60.4 -- 3.38"/3.71" -- T/T

Jun: 69.2/70.1 -- 3.51"/3.26"

Jul: 73.4/74.1 -- 3.37"/3.51"

Aug: 71.8/72.5 -- 3.00"/3.25"

Sep: 64.2/65.1 -- 3.26"/3.22"

Oct: 52.2/53.1 -- 2.52"/2.52" -- 0.1"/T

Nov: 41.3/41.3 -- 2.78"/2.57" -- 1.5"/1.9"

Dec: 29.9/31.3 -- 2.45"/2.25" -- 9.7"/8.9"

Annual: 50./50.8 -- 33.45"/34.29" -- 43.0"/44.6"

[TimB]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Thanks RC...I guess it’s good to know that RFD’s numbers are much less dramatic, and therefore nearly all of the increase is driven by UHI...although perhaps warmer lake temps could come into play too.

But even a 0.3F increase in the annual mean temperature at RFD is noteworthy over such a short period of time. It’s a slow and steady bleed.

Another piece of data, if I have my numbers right: ORD’s average low during mid January was 13F (1961-1990 normals), and is now 18F (1991-2020 normals). So, an increase of 5F over 30 years. Just speechless...

I hesitate to use the word “catastrophic” for fear of sensationalizing, but this seems like it might be an appropriate time.

[Chicago Storm]

Wow.  Unfortunately, your post is probably the most shocking in this forum's history, but will get overlooked by many.  Probably deserves its own thread.  Chicago is becoming St. Louis at night.  This should also be a huge news story for the general public.
Does anyone know the increase in average annual temp at ORD, after switching to the 1991-2020 normals?

lol


.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I hesitate to use the word “catastrophic” for fear of sensationalizing, but this seems like it might be an appropriate time.

At least it's snowing more.  

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

At least it's snowing more.  

That too. Winters in the Midwest and Ohio Valley (and yes, I consider myself in Pittsburgh to be in the Ohio Valley because it technically is, lol) probably won’t be completely ruined in our lifetimes, because we’ll get more snow to go with the slightly higher average temperatures. At some level of warming, that scale will tip to drastically reduce the level of snowfall, especially closer to I-70, but we’re not there yet. Obviously it’ll take longer closer to the I-80/90/94 corridors.

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That too. Winters in the Midwest and Ohio Valley (and yes, I consider myself in Pittsburgh to be in the Ohio Valley because it technically is, lol) probably won’t be completely ruined in our lifetimes, because we’ll get more snow to go with the slightly higher average temperatures. At some level of warming, that scale will tip to drastically reduce the level of snowfall, especially closer to I-70, but we’re not there yet.

Yeah, just from a total snowfall perspective, I am not that concerned.  I think it would take a lot more warming to really knock that down significantly, and I'd be particularly concerned with warming max temps.  Not that there won't be clunker seasons, but they should largely be made up for by the good snowfall seasons. 

If you look at the 30 year averages by decade (by that I mean 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020), there's some bouncing around or perhaps a little downward trend in snowfall depending where you look.  For Chicago, I think 1971-2000 averaged like 38-39", 1981-2010 was 36.3" and now 1991-2020 will be 38.4"

[IWXwx]

55 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Using the raw data from xmacis, here's the full 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 breakdown for annual normals at DTW:

Biggest takeaways:

~1980s DTW was a radiating magnet, the 2010s UHI rapidly increased (and i mean rapidly, altho it has leveled off in recent years and seems pretty steady)

~Both precip and snowfall are increasing, one note on precip: though its getting better, sometimes asos is still terrible in dry or windy snowfalls, and those amts are not always adjusted by the nws. In the 80s, a standard rain gauge was used. Take away...realistically you can probably add a bit of precip to the winter months

~The warm months (May-Oct) are the main increases in temps.

 

1981-2010/1991-2020

Max: 59.0/59.5

Min: 41.3/42.1

Mean: 50.1/50.8

 

Days Tmax >=90: 12/13

Days Tmin <=32: 124/120

Days Tmin <=0: 4/4

 

Precip: 33.45/34.29

Snow: 43.0"/44.6"

 

Days >=0.01" precip: 135/136

Days >=0.10" precip: 73/73

Days >=0.50" precip: 21/21

Days >=1.00" precip: 6/6

 

Days >= 1" snowdepth: 46/47

Days >= 5" snowdepth: 15/18

Days >= 10" snowdepth: 3/5

 

MONTHLY BREAKDOWNS 1981-2010/1991-2020

TEMPS -- PRECIP -- SNOW

Jan: 25.3/25.8 -- 1.98"/2.23" -- 12.8"/13.9"

Feb: 27.9/28.1 -- 2.01"/2.08" -- 10.5"/12.2"

Mar: 36.9/37.3 -- 2.28"/2.43" -- 6.8"/6.2"

Apr: 49.0/49.0 -- 2.90"/3.26" -- 1.6"/1.5"

May: 59.4/60.4 -- 3.38"/3.71" -- T/T

Jun: 69.2/70.1 -- 3.51"/3.26"

Jul: 73.4/74.1 -- 3.37"/3.51"

Aug: 71.8/72.5 -- 3.00"/3.25"

Sep: 64.2/65.1 -- 3.26"/3.22"

Oct: 52.2/53.1 -- 2.52"/2.52" -- 0.1"/T

Nov: 41.3/41.3 -- 2.78"/2.57" -- 1.5"/1.9"

Dec: 29.9/31.3 -- 2.45"/2.25" -- 9.7"/8.9"

Annual: 50./50.8 -- 33.45"/34.29" -- 43.0"/44.6"

Those numbers will most likely be a little different when the 1990-2020 numbers are officially released. Ricky might be able to be more specific, but they do some blending and modifying for the final output. I got my hands on a PowerPoint with the technical explanation on arriving at the new normals, but I don't have access to it right now. I'll throw up a link when I get into the office on Tuesday in case anyone is interested.

[TimB]

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, just from a total snowfall perspective, I am not that concerned.  I think it would take a lot more warming to really knock that down significantly, and I'd be particularly concerned with warming max temps.  Not that there won't be clunker seasons, but they should largely be made up for by the good snowfall seasons. 

If you look at the 30 year averages by decade (by that I mean 1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010, 1991-2020), there's some bouncing around or perhaps a little downward trend in snowfall depending where you look.  For Chicago, I think 1971-2000 averaged like 38-39", 1981-2010 was 36.3" and now 1991-2020 will be 38.4"

At the end of the day, the max temps haven’t grabbed the US headlines so they’re outside the consciousness of the American general public. Like the 100 degrees in the Siberian Arctic last summer, the all time record temps in the Antarctic during their previous summer, the European heat wave of 2019, or even Beijing breaking their all time winter record temperature by ten degrees, all of which were cases of record max temperatures being broken or completely shattered. The closest analog I can think of here in the states is March 2012, when several sites in the upper Midwest were breaking daily record highs at midnight and at least one site (Rochester, MN?) had a daily low exceed that day’s record high. But that wasn’t in the middle of summer when such anomalous heat would be deadly and grab a lot of attention.

Edit: I know I suffered through 104 degree heat in summer 2012 in south central WI, but even that wasn’t unprecedented. We’ve dodged bullets in all of the really hot summers lately with respect to all time record maxes in the Midwest and Ohio Valley but our luck will run out someday. This year seems like a good candidate for that happening.

Edit 2: Phoenix’s data for last summer/“fall” (monthly record highs in August, September, October, and November) are absolutely horrifying. But it’s not shocking to non-weather weenies because it’s Phoenix.

[Torchageddon]

I was going to say I'm going to miss this April stretch of incredible warmth but maybe not so soon, today was suppose to be a washout with all day light showers but as imagined I discounted the amount and longevity of the precip. My high was bumped an extra 3-4C to 17C and as of 2pm the sun is even breaking out .

Weak storms are forming to my south and moving generally NNW which is highly unusual here, also nearly calm winds. Amazing skies out there currently.

Edit: reached 18C which is remarkably higher than my set high, also after the weak convection moved through.

[Brian D]

23 hours ago, Brian D said:

Just curious, but this SO2 plume could have an effect on the coming summer. Something to watch. It is being lifted to about 16km. Any more big puffs like this and it probably will have a decent impact. Watch for real cool sunsets in the coming weeks or at least pics of them from different places around the world.

I posted in "Off Topic" concerning this.

 

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

At the end of the day, the max temps haven’t grabbed the US headlines so they’re outside the consciousness of the American general public. Like the 100 degrees in the Siberian Arctic last summer, the all time record temps in the Antarctic during their previous summer, the European heat wave of 2019, or even Beijing breaking their all time winter record temperature by ten degrees, all of which were cases of record max temperatures being broken or completely shattered. The closest analog I can think of here in the states is March 2012, when several sites in the upper Midwest were breaking daily record highs at midnight and at least one site (Rochester, MN?) had a daily low exceed that day’s record high. But that wasn’t in the middle of summer when such anomalous heat would be deadly and grab a lot of attention.

Edit: I know I suffered through 104 degree heat in summer 2012 in south central WI, but even that wasn’t unprecedented. We’ve dodged bullets in all of the really hot summers lately with respect to all time record maxes in the Midwest and Ohio Valley but our luck will run out someday. This year seems like a good candidate for that happening.

Edit 2: Phoenix’s data for last summer/“fall” (monthly record highs in August, September, October, and November) are absolutely horrifying. But it’s not shocking to non-weather weenies because it’s Phoenix.

I really think the "frankencorn"/farming practices/land use is stacking the deck against the extreme summer maxes in the Midwest.  It's not always going to work (see 2012 for example) and there may come a day when other signals take over, but it helps to get drought conditions kicking in by late spring and get that to feed back and take out some of the crops to reduce the amount of evapotranspiration.

Warming maxes in the Midwest in winter would get my antenna up as far as cutting into snowfall as you can only afford so much warming in that category.  At the end of the day, the warming mins are interesting to note and to be able to pick out the UHI influence in some areas.  But for me that almost falls into the "who cares" category, particularly for winter months when warmer mins are probably welcomed by most people outside of low temperature nerds.  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I hesitate to use the word “catastrophic” for fear of sensationalizing, but this seems like it might be an appropriate time.

UHI is annoying but it's hardly catastrophic.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Thanks RC...I guess it’s good to know that RFD’s numbers are much less dramatic, and therefore nearly all of the increase is driven by UHI...although perhaps warmer lake temps could come into play too.

But even a 0.3F increase in the annual mean temperature at RFD is noteworthy over such a short period of time. It’s a slow and steady bleed.

Another piece of data, if I have my numbers right: ORD’s average low during mid January was 13F (1961-1990 normals), and is now 18F (1991-2020 normals). So, an increase of 5F over 30 years. Just speechless...

 Keep in mind, in the case of ORD & DTW in the 1960s and 1970s, it was the "perfect storm" of urban heat island being pretty much nonexistent in those areas so they radiated like a magnet and then of course you add in the fact that that was pretty much the coldest period of winters on record following the warm winters of mid 20th century.  In the case of DTW, the area still radiates excellent on the South side of the airport due to terrain but that is not where the thermometer is located, it is located on the warmer North side. One of my biggest pet peeves in the weather is when people use the coldest winters on record as baseline.

 

FYI here is Chicago's official averages by decade for Jan.  Obviously in the early days when the thermometer was near the Lake it's going to give you kind of a falsely high reading but that is also no different as the days when it was rural and gave a falsly low reading at night.  But really it does not matter what site you use for the actual specific numbers, there was a huge change from the warm winters of the 1930s-50s then the cold winters of the 1960s-80s.

1890s: 30/18

1900s: 32/19

1910s: 32/18

1920s: 32/18

1930s: 35/22

1940s: 32/17

1950s: 33/18

1960s: 30/16

1970s: 27/12

1980s: 30/14

1990s: 32/17

2000s: 32/18

2010s: 31/17

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

That too. Winters in the Midwest and Ohio Valley (and yes, I consider myself in Pittsburgh to be in the Ohio Valley because it technically is, lol) probably won’t be completely ruined in our lifetimes, because we’ll get more snow to go with the slightly higher average temperatures. At some level of warming, that scale will tip to drastically reduce the level of snowfall, especially closer to I-70, but we’re not there yet. Obviously it’ll take longer closer to the I-80/90/94 corridors.

I hardly doubt that overall we will see any difference in our winters. keep in mind climate does tend to goes in cycles. 

[TimB]

36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I really think the "frankencorn"/farming practices/land use is stacking the deck against the extreme summer maxes in the Midwest.  It's not always going to work (see 2012 for example) and there may come a day when other signals take over, but it helps to get drought conditions kicking in by late spring and get that to feed back and take out some of the crops to reduce the amount of evapotranspiration.

Warming maxes in the Midwest in winter would get my antenna up as far as cutting into snowfall as you can only afford so much warming in that category.  At the end of the day, the warming mins are interesting to note and to be able to pick out the UHI influence in some areas.  But for me that almost falls into the "who cares" category, particularly for winter months when warmer mins are probably welcomed by most people outside of low temperature nerds.  

I would describe myself as a low temperature nerd. That said, I still think if these things can occur in Europe or Siberia or Antarctica or Beijing or Phoenix or the Midwest in March, they can happen in the Midwest in July and some of the reason it hasn’t happened yet may be due to farming practices, but I would guess that some of it is also due to chance.

[Spartman]

Highs in the lower 50s throughout the day. Tomorrow doesn't look better. This weekend's system is only the beginning. Models are hinting an blocking pattern developing soon. Already, another wet weekend is set to be on tap, potentially worse that this weekend. For instance, Thursday morning from the 18z GFS run:


ILN:
 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A vertically-stacked cutoff low will continue to spin
north/northeast of the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Thursday
while the system slowly drifts towards the northeastern US. As
this occurs, surface high pressure will simultaneously try to
build into the Ohio Valley from the west despite the area being
on the southwestern flank of the upper-level low and possibly
the far western flank of the surface low. This messy synoptic
setup leaves the region in a regime with northwesterly/northerly
surface winds through the middle of the work week along with
sporadic chances for light rain showers and increased cloud
cover when occasional, low- predictability, vorticity maximums
rotate around the upper-level low. Northwesterly winds help keep
temperatures near seasonal norms for the middle of April
through Thursday.

By Friday,the upper-level cutoff low reaches the northeast
coast. This will likely result in the surface low translating to
the eastern seaboard in a region more favorable for
cyclogenesis. With the upper-level low and newly formed surface
low off the east coast, upper level ridging may briefly build in
over the Ohio Vally on Friday despite northerly surface winds
persisting along with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions.

Rain chances then increase for the weekend due to upper-level
ridging breaking down and the possibility of an upper-level
shortwave approaching.

&&

IND:
 

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

A blocky and stagnant flow aloft will develop through the
week...anchored by two upper level low pressure systems. The first
will track slowly east across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
Tuesday and Wednesday before slowly drifting into New England and
the Canadian Maritimes by the weekend. The second lobe will develop
over the Intermountain West midweek then gradually shift east
towards the region by the weekend in a weakened state. Quasizonal
flow will persist south of the track of these two lobes through the
Ohio Valley for much of the upcoming week.

The presence of a weakening surface wave over the Great Lakes in
tandem with the upper level low on Tuesday and Wednesday will bring
a brief shot of cooler air drawn into thew region with additional
cloud cover. Forcing associated with this system will remain north
of the region however with a separate surface wave tracking through
the lower Tennessee Valley and keeping much of the Ohio Valley in
between with drier air advecting in from the Canadian prairies. As
the work week progresses...broad high pressure will only strengthen
across the region with dry weather continuing.

The approach of the weakening western upper low by the weekend will
introduce some potential for rain showers but a poorly defined
surface low and disruption to any substantial low level flow
developing off the Gulf of Mexico suggest a problematic setup for
more expansive rainfall over the forecast area. At this point...hard
to justify much more than 20-30 pops for scattered showers and an
increase in cloud cover as the upper wave drifts through the area.

The strong high pressure ridge building south from Canada will keep
a seasonably cool airmass across the Ohio Valley through the
extended with highs largely ranging from the mid 50s to the lower
60s.  Lows at night will dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s with
at least some potential for patchy frost in parts of the forecast
area Wednesday and Thursday nights then again by early next week.

&&

 

[Chicago Storm]

Highs in the lower 50s throughout the day. Tomorrow doesn't look better. This weekend's system is only the beginning. Models are hinting an Omega Block developing soon. Already, another wet weekend is set to be on tap, potentially worse that this weekend. For instance, Thursday morning from the 18z GFS run:

 

That’s not an omega block.


.

[beavis1729]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I really think the "frankencorn"/farming practices/land use is stacking the deck against the extreme summer maxes in the Midwest.  It's not always going to work (see 2012 for example) and there may come a day when other signals take over, but it helps to get drought conditions kicking in by late spring and get that to feed back and take out some of the crops to reduce the amount of evapotranspiration.

Warming maxes in the Midwest in winter would get my antenna up as far as cutting into snowfall as you can only afford so much warming in that category.  At the end of the day, the warming mins are interesting to note and to be able to pick out the UHI influence in some areas.  But for me that almost falls into the "who cares" category, particularly for winter months when warmer mins are probably welcomed by most people outside of low temperature nerds.  

When I said "shocking" upthread, it wasn't so much related to expected future snowfall or any IMBY weenie view about winter fading away.  It's from a climate/environmental perspective.  People can debate how much of the change is being driven by UHI vs. background warming...but either way it's very bad when January mins increase 5F over 30 years.  What will it be like in the next 50-100 years? 

Take your pick - either humans are significantly altering climo in specific locations significantly via development and parking lots and dark surfaces and buildings (and it's only getting worse)...or there is background warming happening very quickly.  It also doesn't really matter if the general public appreciates warmer mins in January.  Perhaps they would...but it doesn't fix the concern.    

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

When I said "shocking" upthread, it wasn't so much related to expected future snowfall or any IMBY weenie view about winter fading away.  It's from a climate/environmental perspective.  People can debate how much of the change is being driven by UHI vs. background warming...but either way it's very bad when January mins increase 5F over 30 years.  What will it be like in the next 50-100 years? 

Take your pick - either humans are significantly altering climo in specific locations significantly via development and parking lots and dark surfaces and buildings (and it's only getting worse)...or there is background warming happening very quickly.  It also doesn't really matter if the general public appreciates warmer mins in January.  Perhaps they would...but it doesn't fix the concern.    

The general public might appreciate warmer mins in January, but the general public (especially those that tragically lose a loved one) won’t appreciate a heat wave of the magnitude of what happened in Europe in 2019, and I won’t back down from my belief that it’s mostly luck that it hasn’t happened here.

[SchaumburgStormer]

12 hours ago, Spartman said:

Highs in the lower 50s throughout the day. Tomorrow doesn't look better. This weekend's system is only the beginning. Models are hinting an blocking pattern developing soon. Already, another wet weekend is set to be on tap, potentially worse that this weekend. For instance, Thursday morning from the 18z GFS run:
 

Had a shitty Saturday with drizzle amounting to a .25", and a partly to mostly cloudy Sunday with upper 50's and plenty of sun breaking through. Not exactly suicide inducing for early-mid April. 

Things looks rather seasonable long term. 

[cyclone77]

This would have been one for the ages had it been a snowstorm.  Couldn't get much better pivot point action than this.  Will definitely go down as the highlight of April.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?autopilot=0&osite=DVN&tzoff=0&layers[]=nexrad&layers[]=warnings&layers[]=cwas&layers[]=uscounties&layers[]=watches&layers[]=blank&site=DVN&tz=CDT&archive=yes&year=2021&month=4&day=11&hour=12&minute=0&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640x480&loop=1&frames=150&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=0&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

[frostfern]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

UHI is annoying but it's hardly catastrophic.

We're talking about an increase in the UHI though.  It's hard to tell how much of it corresponds to increased urban development and how much corresponds to other factors.