Spartman Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Models hinting mixed signals heading into the first days of April, especially with a very chilly start to the month. No April Fool's joke! CFS, in the meantime: The NAO, PNA, and AO heading into the first week of April: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 A couple midweek shitty, cold days are a lot easier to take with the first part of April looking warm. Solid Easter weekend incoming. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 On 3/29/2021 at 8:48 AM, SchaumburgStormer said: A couple midweek shitty, cold days are a lot easier to take with the first part of April looking warm. Solid Easter weekend incoming. Sat-Mon are the only locked mild/warm days. After that there is a lot of question. That once wall to wall warm late March into mid April idea is a distant memory. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Sat-Mon are the only locked mild/warm days. After that there is a lot of question. That once wall to wall warm late March into mid-April idea is a distant memory. . Hmmmm...not sure how I feel about that. On the one hand, I want no part of a return to a wintry pattern after the equinox and especially after the calendar flips to April. OTOH, an instant flip to a baking, summerlike ridge is no good either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 looks warmish with typical seasonal cool/ brief cold shots 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: looks warmish with typical seasonal cool/ brief cold shots At some point there will be an E-W boundary wiggling north and south. Sucks when you're stuck on the north side by 300 miles or less. GFS has trended more towards the euro with a weaker front, so hopefully it hangs up north of the majority of the forum. It's weird how that zonal pattern hasn't really occurred yet this spring though. The longwave ridges and troughs span massive range of latitude, but have at least been moving. Wavy but progressive is nice. Cold fronts tend to be dry up north in this kind of pattern though. Big sprawling high's don't allow quick moisture return in their wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 00Z GFS hints at some stormy mischief possible in the Plains and/or this sub mid-late next week with a deep cyclone and a broad moist sector across the central and eastern CONUS. It's still early season and it's barely inside of 200 hours, so that's about all that can be said at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 surprised no one is talking about the lake effect snow potential in Indiana tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorePunch Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Picked up an inch of snow here last night. Rather depressing for April 1st. Looking forward to the 60s-70s later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Woke up to a few, yes 3” probably, of snow this morning here in the thumb, grass is completely covered but asphalt driveway is pretty much bare still. Hopefully this is the last of the snow for 6 or 7 months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyweather Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 PWS shows we bottomed out at 23.5 imby, also the current temp. Could be making snow right now but I’ve lost the drive, this is about as low as we saw in all of March, I had expected March to be more like recent Marches but of course, have to wait until April 1 for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Unfortunately the lengthy stretch of warm weather has been cut back by several days on the past few Euro runs. Looks like Mon will be the warmest day, with a run at 80 possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 35 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Unfortunately the lengthy stretch of warm weather has been cut back by several days on the past few Euro runs. Looks like Mon will be the warmest day, with a run at 80 possible here. Yeah, the big warmth only goes through Tuesday now. However, what comes after that is still a mystery. A few model runs have become quite cold, but others aren't too bad. Last night's Euro never makes the connection to any cold, so Iowa never falls below 60º for highs through day ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Today looks like a decent snow squall day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 GFS continues to suggest decent thunderstorm chances for portions of the sub at times next week with 60s dews getting into southern WI/possibly far SE MN in the warm sector of a deep low over central/northern MN. Soundings look kind of muddled for severe/ potential, but at this range I'd be worried if they looked perfect now. 06Z run had an ugly eastern US stalled upper low/ Omega block developing later in the run, but that was waaaaaaaaay into fantasy range and even if it does happen, better now than May (or June). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Oh yeah, it snowed here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 I cannot stop laughing watching Tigers opening day. A little chilly (63) here with full sunshine, but haha I do not miss opening day's such as these in Detroit. Just pounding Bailey's and coffee in a parking lot just to not shiver for 3 and a half hours in Comerica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, nwohweather said: I cannot stop laughing watching Tigers opening day. A little chilly (63) here with full sunshine, but haha I do not miss opening day's such as these in Detroit. Just pounding Bailey's and coffee in a parking lot just to not shiver for 3 and a half hours in Comerica. Getting lake effect snow here. I'm sure Wrigley will also be a treat today too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 It is in the low 30s here with a lot of sun. Pretty impressive to get that combo in the afternoon on April 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It is in the low 30s here with a lot of sun. Pretty impressive to get that combo in the afternoon on April 1. Seemed to be happening until like April 20th in 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 1, 2021 Author Share Posted April 1, 2021 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Not as warm on the 8-14 day outlook, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Even though it was only a few degrees warmer it felt considerably warmer than yesterday with full sun and light winds today. Some fires showing up on vis out over portions of northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Overdone for that timeframe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 Man if you're wanting an active severe wx pattern for April, GFS is not the outcome you want to see. Forms a massive omega block after the first week of April and persists well into mid April. Euro didn't look as blocky. Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 1, 2021 Share Posted April 1, 2021 22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man if you're wanting an active severe wx pattern for April, GFS is not the outcome you want to see. Forms a massive omega block after the first week of April and persists well into mid April. Euro didn't look as blocky. Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 On 4/1/2021 at 6:30 PM, StormChaser4Life said: Teleconnections support a more active pattern so hopefully GFS is out to lunch. That’s really not the case... There is no significant forcing via teleconnections, until maybe we get into mid April. Definitely could get into a stagnant pattern for a bit. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That’s really not the case... There is no significant forcing via teleconnection, until maybe we get into mid April. Definitely could get into a stagnant pattern for a bit. . Fair enough...again, better now than May! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 43 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system. GFS has gone back to the backdoor cold front BS in the long range... like the Euro. Elevated convection with the WAA will probably happen at some point, but who knows if the real warm sector ever makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah, and like I said while an ugly look it's well out into fantasy range (and even if it does have the right idea, better April than May). Currently more focused on trying to suss out any potential with next week's system. 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: That’s really not the case... There is no significant forcing via teleconnection, until maybe we get into mid April. Definitely could get into a stagnant pattern for a bit. . Yeah early to mid April definitely looks to be pretty stagnant. Hopefully we see a pattern shift mid to late April. Just always concerning when you see these patterns in peak tornado months. Getting flashbacks of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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