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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Okay... The NAM could be just be convective sensitive...

 overrunning convection complex over S Ontario rips it across Upstate NYduring Wed, mid day ... If that happens it probably would send a mid and upper deck exhaust plume over central and SNE..

Those things also suppresses boundaries S.  Seems to be what the NAM's doing.  It could be wrong with the convection, but it could be right.

Remove that featuring ...the boundary may fragile waft farther NE on Wed ...

Thursday looks interesting for warm sector to N NH and possible convection ... 80/67 crispies

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39 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Nearly all balsam fir - high water content and low heat value even when dry, and most is far beyond where I can lug it to the road.  Maybe burn the nearby stuff next September.  Fir is the most vulnerable species during leaf-off, aspen when leaves are out.  I don't think today's wind will bring down any more.

Whats your best firewood up north, I get tons of red oak and ash down here, I'll burn poplar and pin cherry during shoulder season but I'm pretty stocked up on oak and hickory for the next two years.

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Thursday and Friday look showery and the weekend looks cold for this time of year. At least it might be sunny.

Friday might hit 80 before front .. Saturday looks like 50's but with May sun maybe we can sneak into the 60's in the usual spots.. Sunday the same.. getting my 2nd shot Friday so might take the day off to enjoy the day before showers arrive

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agreed - although I'd change 'I'm' to 'everyone', NE of NYC... 

basically ... your odds improve down around SW zones, naturally ranging much lower ...  Fryeburg Maine, at getting to swim in the warm end of the swimming pool with the cool kids. 

...and hot chicks, the one's that when you smell lilacs in the spring for some reason spark images of  - ...the girl of your dreams is in that clique.  She pretty much despises you, almost as though because you love her.   See ...you have to understand, she hails from an "enmeshed family" syndrome.  Known is psychology vernacular as "psychic incest,"  this is hidden, insidious detriment - often a result of 'over-affectionating' - it can severely interfere if not destroy one's own identity development over the course of their upbringing ... As adults these types may manifest many problems facilitating ...if even 'understanding' others in an empathic sense; they are often terrified of losing what fragile identity they have mustered after leaving the nest, within any normal, healthy adult relationships. The person responsible, was her father, who died when in her late adolescence, stranding her on a proverbially emptied island, ironically .. in a sea of souls. Embroiled within her bond to him, she was gutted when he left.

She has no ability to RAVE with an another human being as an adult because of it all...

But you you still lover her anyway .. because you did shared so many experiences and personal aspects together.  Whether she really is aware or not, the reveals that were given along the way ... were quite intimate.  They just didn't go downstairs.

  - that's what it is like on this side of that Wednesday boundary - we have "boundary" issues ... We watch her have meaningless sex from afar, yet she won't touch you ...the one she really actually could love...

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed - although I'd change 'I'm' to 'everyone NE of NYC... 

basically ... your odds improve down around SW zones, naturally ranging much lower ...  Fryeburg Maine, at getting to swim in the warm end of the swimming pool with the cool kids. 

...and hot chicks, the one's that when you smell lilacs in the spring for some reason spark images of  - ...the girl of your dreams is in that clique.  She pretty much despises you, almost as though because you love her.   See ...she hails has an "enmeshed family" syndrome. Known is psycho vernacular as "psychic incest,"this can severely interfere if not destroy one's own identity development over the course of their upbringing ... As adults these types have many problems facilitating ...if even 'understanding' others in an empathic sense; they are often terrified of losing what fragile identity they have mustered after leaving the next, in any scenario where intimacy is a normal, healthy aspect of adult relationships. The person responsible, was her father, who died when in her late adolescence, stranding her on an emptied island in a sea of souls when he left. 

She has no ability to RAVE with an another human being as an adult because of it all... But you you still lover her anyway .. because you've shared so many experiences and personal aspects together.  Whether she really is aware or not, the reveals that were given along the way ... were quite intimate.  

  - that's what it is like on this side of that Wednesday boundary - we have "boundary" issues

Christine .. Part Deux?

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

South of the pike will be ok at least 2 of those days.. I’ll also remind the Euro humpers how wet it was this past weekend  with a soaker .. and what reality actually was 

CYo9aUO.jpg

GFS looks more like that map, I don't think anyone is humping the EURO, just stating what it shows, GFS definitely much drier.. not sure about other models.. also we are < 96hrs so I would think the EURO would do better than this weekend.

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

GFS looks more like that map, I don't think anyone is humping the EURO, just stating what it shows, GFS definitely much drier.. not sure about other models.. also we are < 96hrs so I would think the EURO would do better than this weekend.

The boundary is literally overhead. Good luck pinpointing that. Rain chances for all at some point, could be a soaking too in spots.

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Just now, Bostonseminole said:

GFS looks more like that map, I don't think anyone is humping the EURO, just stating what it shows, GFS definitely much drier.. not sure about other models.. also we are < 96hrs so I would think the EURO would do better than this weekend.

Mm .. the Euro is stalling the front pretty much collocated with the Pike latitude, Wed/Thur

It's late enough into the spring with solar modulation/destablization that it'll probably ignite diurnal stuff along it though - just sayn'.  

The GFS,NAM sort of look that way hate to say.

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I'd be happy if it we got some sun and crispies... 

CB's are fun stuff when bubbling around.

One thing that is different about this warm frontal/stationary stall them days is that we don't see a very convincing +PP N of the boundary?   If we did ...we could go ahead and assume NE/E shit spritz, but the low levels may not be transporting that way.

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24 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

GFS looks more like that map, I don't think anyone is humping the EURO, just stating what it shows, GFS definitely much drier.. not sure about other models.. also we are < 96hrs so I would think the EURO would do better than this weekend.

Just think a couple fairly warm days are coming this week. Might not be wire to wire sun , but warmth seems likely 

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4 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Whats your best firewood up north, I get tons of red oak and ash down here, I'll burn poplar and pin cherry during shoulder season but I'm pretty stocked up on oak and hickory for the next two years.

Very best is hophornbeam (aka ironwood), a relatively small tree usually beneath the main crown canopy.  (In NNJ "ironwood" was used for an even smaller tree of several other names - blue beech, musclewood.  Hophornbeam was almost unknown there, as blue beech is almost unknown this far north.)  After HH comes red oak, sugar maple and beech, with yellow birch and white ash a tic behind, the latter being the finest of all woods to burn when still green.  "Ash wood green or ash wood dry, a king shall warm his slippers by."  The very opposite is balsam poplar, as one Allagash woodsman noted, "You couldn't afford the oil it would take to burn [green] balm-o-Gilead!"  A co-worker when I lived in Fort Kent wished to learn the age of the BPs in his dooryard, so drilled one with an increment borer, a small brace-and-bit with hollow bit so a small tube of wood could be extracted and rings counted.  He pulled out the extractor and water ran out of the hole for a couple minutes.   (Fresh-cut fir isn't much better.)

Entertaining 12z GFS, 72 hours of near-constant RA totaling a bit more than 0.8" - NNE spring at its finest.

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