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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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That ridge next week was flirting with really ballooning in some of the guidance ... The next run deflates a bit.. then bigger... Itt's like it has slow leak - heh...

In any case, however warm it actually gets ... the theme re turning seasonal chapter seems to still be the main evidence.  Fronts and oscillating air masses are less revoltingly cold, with more tepid fluctuations - most importantly - on the red side of the 540 -

We've had some very warm days ... and also, overnight lows.  They've been throwing off the means and making seem warmer than it has felt.  It seems the cold targets 2:45 pm every afternoon some how, some way.  ...jesus.

But outside of rainy days if any ... looks like 60 to 80 range, as opposed to 44 F packing pellet snow flurries to 65, beginning tomorrow.

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My hunch is a complete whiff with the southern ( quasi southern ..or whatever that is...) stream cyclone, as the previous more wrapped up deepener was a result of a partial stream phase with that wave N of the Lakes ... but recent guidance et al has clearly been trending toward keeping those two features from interacting much at at all at this point until well past our longitude.

Part of that is owing to the mishandling of the NAO domain - ... More was causing the Lakes wave to dig a bit to where it could force phasing but that's not happening in recent guidance.

Sunday .. partly cloudy with showers N country NNE associated withe N/stream clipping past, while the southern waves remains S ...  cirrus and ultostrate deck over southern zones with hodgepodge in between there and central NE.  we'll see...

It also calls into question how much backside CAA really cuts in ... as these open wave solutions may not be done trending the whole contention yet further up and out and that would of course mean less backside

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