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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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The NAM is an unmanned fire hose ...spraying low tracks some 200 naut mile track variance ...implicated cirro-strata dry ( 00Z version) to nearly an inch ( 06z version..) now somewhere in between .... 

While it is doing that ... also caution: the over amplitude and NWS bias of the NAM beyond 48 hours applies just the same as it does in any coastal/astride cyclone management.

Still yet another way to look at it?   why the f are y'all caring what the NAM things on Sunday ...lol    just kidding i get it

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Today's a nape fail -

Too much wind.  

Wind fades as a factor beyond say 72 .. 75 or so.  Get it into the low 80s and the wind reverses as a need and ventilation is desired.   But 51 here with white noise in the trees is a dong flogging

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know what heh.. I knew it would be when you said it was dry for that Sunday deal.  I thought, " ..probably brings the warm look back then "

I think at some point for at least a day, there is an onshore risk, but overall it looks rather nice IMO. I'm ready man. 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think at some point for at least a day, there is an onshore risk, but overall it looks rather nice IMO. I'm ready man

:)  I have been since Feb 28th ...

The Pacific needs to be watched though - the MJO "maybe" might sorta just kinda in away force the pattern a little...? Or not, but that's a weirdly scary signal on the RMM's

I'm not a big proponent of the MJO ...I've always thought of it as a neg or pos interference thing - if it situates right in space and time, fine - boom... But if it doesn't, the wave doesn't seem to matter so much. It's an influence and enhancer to the flavor of patterns, but doesn't really dictate the taste. 

That's my personal view on that index and always has been...

Throw in my hypothesis about the velocities and gradient soaking of the hemisphere tending to absorb .. as possibly muddying its contribution ( ENSO for that matter too - ), that much more .. It makes me wonder if its relevancy is tending to slip in the general use.   But ...this is not winter. The gradients are relaxed .. the velocities concomitantly as well.  So now we get a hugely robust Phase 8 buffalo ballz atmospheric tsunami of an MJO wave - I don't know if that is a coincidence of the atmosphere just not damping it 'as much' ... but forgetting that, if the seasonal hemisphere makes it less meaningful either way? 

who cares I guess. But if May ends up a dreary hell ... heh

 

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Feels much much milder in between the attempt at stilling chill by the breeze.

It may even slacken as the afternoon presses but ... actually the diurnal heating/BL expansion mechanics will probably tip canopies too. 

Tomorrow looks topico though - 72 in the NAM MET is probably typically 2 to 3 cool biased during high sun +8 850 mb and enough gradient to well mix us... Also d-slope added..

I bet pubes 76 at a few locations as a high but we'll

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