April 2021 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wind is Howling here. 70.

[dendrite]

47F with showers. Warm sector fail.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Freeze warning tonight?

[moneypitmike]

My co-workers who live in IN, KY, and OH are all posting their snow pics this morning.

[wxeyeNH]

43F  Moderate rain

[moneypitmike]

52 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

66°. Nicer than yesterday

Yup--much nicer today.  It's amazing the difference a little sun makes.

[Ginx snewx]

Nice day cancel suddenly very dark, heavy rain on my doorstep 

[Torch Tiger]

70.2

[CoastalWx]

Still nice and here.

[Typhoon Tip]

That's quite the mild run of the GFS operational over all through about D11/ ..12

Removing the Friday cold snap ... it's again, the last belly blow for some time.   And that thing for Monday is hugely different in this run comparing the 00z Euro's evolution.  The GFS really flips the sensible and actual synoptics appeals by the end of the next day, Tuesday - with temps easily 70-74 given high sun and light west wind during Tuesday afternoon.  Very seasonal and normal looking fropa in a week, followed by a quick roll-out and return TX conveyor pattern.  Might even get DPs up here...

Its extended ... may be overdoing the warm complexion - but it's a tough call.  The NAO is neggie but it's a different format this go than three weeks ago.  That one was clearly a well defined and coherent blocking over the western limb of the NAO domain space, which concomitantly delivers under cut/stalling vortex regimes and we did suffer ...and probably ultimately parlayed into a snow threat even...all that - this is different.  Firstly, it's coming from the GEFs - I don't know if the EPS even sees the same index mode/modality that GEFs currently has...But also, looking over the individual members, they do not nearly as well agree upon the height orientation and structural attributes of the NAO domain space nearly as concertedly as before. 

So in a sense...it's like the current negative curved outlook at CPC is more of a numeric accident that they happen to compute the same value as though there really were a block - I mean there just isn't much of one so I'm wondering if the -NAO is red herring this time.  It'll be interesting to see if a west-based NAO might gather/emergence in time. 

But the reason I am not totally sold on the GFS's D12 570 dm thickness to ALB ... is because the PNA is positive out there, and that is actually situated with the outward mode of the open Pacific Basin - the strong phase 8 MJO wave with a weaker gradient/ lower velocity hemisphere might make the MJO forcing transmit it's signal more into the westerlies for an early May butt boning ...  It wouldn't be snow...just aggravatingly unsummer - lol ... half kidding..  But I also think that any returning chillier regime wouldn't come with the same appeal after D10 ...because the cold sourcing is really moderating significantly as super mean.

[MaineJayhawk]

58 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My co-workers who live in IN, KY, and OH are all posting their dick pics this morning.

Sounds  like harassment

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Yup--much nicer today.  It's amazing the difference a little sun makes.

Well this post is no longer valid.  Really dark with wind-driven rain.  Temp drop of 12* so far.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's quite the mild run of the GFS operational over all through about D11/ ..12

Removing the Friday cold snap ... it's again, the last belly blow for some time.   And that thing for Monday is hugely different in this run comparing the 00z Euro's evolution.  The GFS really flips the sensible and actual synoptics appeals by the end of the next day, Tuesday - with temps easily 70-74 given high sun and light west wind during Tuesday afternoon.  Very seasonal and normal looking fropa in a week, followed by a quick roll-out and return TX conveyor pattern.  Might even get DPs up here...

Its extended ... may be overdoing the warm complexion - but it's a tough call.  The NAO is neggie but it's a different format this go than three weeks ago.  That one was clearly a well defined and coherent blocking over the western limb of the NAO domain space, which concomitantly delivers under cut/stalling vortex regimes and we did suffer ...and probably ultimately parlayed into a snow threat even...all that - this is different.  Firstly, it's coming from the GEFs - I don't know if the EPS even sees the same index mode/modality that GEFs currently has...But also, looking over the individual members, they do not nearly as well agree upon the height orientation and structural attributes of the NAO domain space nearly as concertedly as before. 

So in a sense...it's like the current negative curved outlook at CPC is more of a numeric accident that they happen to compute the same value as though there really were a block - I mean there just isn't much of one so I'm wondering if the -NAO is red herring this time.  It'll be interesting to see if a west-based NAO might gather/emergence in time. 

But the reason I am not totally sold on the GFS's D12 570 dm thickness to ALB ... is because the PNA is positive out there, and that is actually situated with the outward mode of the open Pacific Basin - the strong phase 8 MJO wave with a weaker gradient/ lower velocity hemisphere might make the MJO forcing transmit it's signal more into the westerlies for an early May butt boning ...  It wouldn't be snow...just aggravatingly unsummer - lol ... half kidding..  But I also think that any returning chillier regime wouldn't come with the same appeal after D10 ...because the cold sourcing is really moderating significantly as super mean.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Those not installing will be doing it in HHH angry and sweaty 

[Lava Rock]

Pouring

 

[Sn0waddict]

Brown lawns by mid may if the GFS is right?

But in actuality I would be shocked if we made it through early may without some sort of back door or wheel o rhea pattern. It seems inevitable.
 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

70.2

That's crazy while BTV is 32/29 and snowing at max diurnal heating.  They may dip below freezing shortly.

[bch2014]

Hail in NYC

[TalcottWx]

Just enough shower activity to make this useless here

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice day cancel suddenly very dark, heavy rain on my doorstep 

Thunderstorms were pretty quick here.  Pretty nice day overall.  62° and a little bit humid.

[TalcottWx]

Pretty broad rotation at the lowest tilt. Doubt it's on the ground at this time

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those not installing will be doing it in HHH angry and sweaty 

Did our "install" late last fall - heat pump was rarely used this winter but will take care of our AC needs this summer.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

Just now, tamarack said:

Did our "install" late last fall - heat pump was rarely used this winter but will take care of our AC needs this summer.

My install is a switch flip

[dryslot]

+SHRN, TS just came thru, 49.5°F

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good boomers with rains here. Troubling times for the dry humpers. 

[tamarack]

20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Shortest

1920-1921 11-25 (1920) 1.1 02-20 (1921) 11.2   86
1909-1910 11-24 (1909) 3.2 02-23 (1910) 1.2     90
2008-2009 12-07 (2008) 0.6 03-09 (2009) 2.8     91
1990-1991 12-28 (1990) 5.0 03-30 (1991) 0.9     91
1953-1954 11-06 (1953) 0.6 02-08 (1954) 0.8     93
2006-2007 12-30 (2006) 0.7 04-05 (2007) 2.3     95

Longest

1944-1945	11-06 (1944)	0.7	05-11 (1945)	1.5	185
1934-1935	10-13 (1934)	1.3	04-17 (1935)	3.5	185
1964-1965	10-21 (1964)	2.1	04-23 (1965)	0.6	183
1976-1977	11-10 (1976)	3.0	05-10 (1977)	1.3	180
1961-1962	10-15 (1961)	0.9	04-12 (1962)	1.3	178
1925-1926	10-10 (1925)	1.9	04-07 (1926)	0.7	178
1963-1964	10-29 (1963)	0.5	04-20 (1964)	0.7	173
1960-1961	10-24 (1960)	2.1	04-13 (1961)	3.5	170
1986-1987	11-11 (1986)	4.9	04-29 (1987)	2.0	168

Their shortest is significantly lower than here but the longest, not so much (top 3 only, short POR), with winter's total:
11/25/08 to 3/11/09*: 106    101.4"   *Earliest last measurable   (17 days after the biggest snowfall and tallest pack of our 23 winters.)
11/17/98 to 3/22/99:  125       79.2
12/7/06* to 4/17/07:   131       95.3   *Latest 1st measurable   (Earliest was 10/25/05.)

11/1/01 to 5/14/02*:   195       72.5"
11/8/19 to 5/9/20:       183       85.1"   *Latest last measurable   
10/31/10 to 4/20/11:   171    100.5"

Average period: 155.2   Median:  156.5
Avg. SN shortest:  92.0"
Avg. SN longest:   86.0"


 

[WinterLand]

28 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

My install is a switch flip

We have a mini split AC, and so a flip of a switch as well. It's nice. In fact, we have units installed on the walls in 5 rooms.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

9 minutes ago, WinterLand said:

We have a mini split AC, and so a flip of a switch as well. It's nice. In fact, we have units installed on the walls in 5 rooms.

Those minis are great. We have 2 zone central air upstairs and down, but I have a mini split in the partially finished basement. Works really well. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, WinterLand said:

We have a mini split AC, and so a flip of a switch as well. It's nice. In fact, we have units installed on the walls in 5 rooms.

How has that worked out for you...you like it? We are debating between central air and mini split for our big renovation project this fall. The mini split is basically half the cost of central so we could use those savings for another area of the reno.

[GCWarrior]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This line of storms looks more formidable. 
 

It is!  Hail up here!