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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Great idea. Not sure how much people know, but the NWS infrastructure has been a disaster recently.  We get alerts and notifications all the time because it affects customers. It's frustrating that an agency who's job is to protect life and property can't get the funding to have a competent and reliable comm infrastructure to send out info. It's not even their fault. I can imagine how frustrating it is for those folks. 

Yes!  ...and, this particular sovereignty ( as in the good ole U  S of Assholes) has been institutionally gutted across multiple agencies - not just NWS ...

If not directly, indirectly, all 'institutions,' that took multiple generations to scaffold and create a resilient vitality for our society, have all been detrimentally squeezed.

Yeah .. and that's not just liberal spiel.                     THAT'S THE REAL F* DEAL                   and the metaphoric cliche' is unfortunately apropos: when inmates run the asylum ...

And it'll probably take 10 or 20 years to un-f* the damage caused by this last 4 years of lunacy - and labeling it 'lunacy' is not this popularized gaslighting expression. 

Brief digression: I've grown tired of individuals, and groups ... integrating wholes, ...becoming increasingly reliant upon that expression to hide from the fact that they may be wrong - sometimes you are, and just because something toys at one's subconscious truth, doesn't make it gaslighting... IT MAKES YOU F'ING WRONG, ASSHOLES. 

The last administration was like a bomb - it took years to build the cathedral, and nano-seconds for the chemical reactions of Semtex to level it all to rubble - only ...a fairer, proportional metaphor might be a strong seismic event doing some rather significant foundation cracking.  But that is what the immediate/ previous "idiot"syncratic rule was to the cathedral of America's institutional might and vitality - a destructive influence.  

Historians will be harsh some day - by our standards of today. They will call it that - case closed.  They won't be saddled by any influences of the here-and-now, low brow lost connectivity to any circumstances that challenge false belief systems - you need that to keep a system's health in check.  Ha, that turn of phrase is an insidious irony for the last 18 months, huh?

Free to actually call a cigar a cigar - something that the present delusion of modernity seems to avoid, their academic writes will be separated from present era faux reality, by the indifference maker of time.  They won't care - they'll call it what it was. *C* ERA

They will portrait the day unsympathetic to this orb of energy that shines down upon our societal stage its light of "indispensable" mood of the hour ... Meanwhile, we were oblivious to the "comet impact" outside the theater house. 

Eventually, we will be forced to get humility and realize ...real fast, what is real, and what really matters.  Said future historians will be on the other side of that dystopian fire-wall. And they will label this something like the great era of enabled faux belief at a social crisis level.

(Dim virtuosity and immorality + Lack of intelligence) * enabling coefficiency = chaos factor

Lol, I love dystopian ranting hahaha

 

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51 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's a huge shift east on the NAM for tomorrow

Yeah, I don't know if the 'huge' will verify ...

but, this looked to me like a late-ish correction candidate, all along ... toward less y-coordinate depth ( amplitude in terms of trough depth ), which then would open the possibility of more of an easterly fix in short terms, but also less snow where it snows ( terrain enhancing, notwithstanding ..)

I mentioned this the yesterday or the day before and here we are... I suspect the other guidance bumps east and also reduces snow totals from those lofty 12-15" typically inflated snow products. They're just too 10:1 without any situational awareness built into them - they don't modulate for anything other than some very basic input metrics ..blah blah...  but since no storm has just those baser aspect in play, those products 'll never be more than 40 to 70%tile to me.  But ...hey, 70% is pretty good when scores that high - so... for that, we can justify ogling 30" layouts and dream through a long exhale.  lol

Anyway, I see the NAM may be overdoing things...but, should this ablate by say 6 dm in the core heights, and stretch or move slightly more on a NE trajectory as opposed to NNE in response, I wouldn't be surprise.

The flow leading is still fast ...and this whole thing seemed to really be asynchronous in the guidance. The Euro was defintely weaker with the surface response in the 00z run, and also less impressive in said vertical depth, too - I thought that might be the late correction unfolding. We'll see

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38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They need to start the season in mid March when we have nicer weather. Then go to FL for a month before coming back to Fenway in May.

Could probably sneak a series in before Xmas too. Maybe a 12/23-12/24 two gamer?

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28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

New Gfs really took a dump on spring ..

mm... New England took a dump on Spring actually -

the gfs is just telling us what we already know. 
 

In fact, may as well have all 64 pages of any given run erased of any content, and a single phrase entered instead:  "April, any questions ? - click here (warning NSFW)" ... as one clicks the arrows or hours by, that's it that result, "April, any questions ? - click here (warning NSFW)"

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31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is ugly

ehhh... yeeeeah it is as a snap shot?

But that 3 days at the end of that run being within a click of 0C at 850 everwhere ...is actually a step in the right direction - that is...if better spring weather is what one wants :)

Not only that, being right at that temp and considering the April sun...probably a sky light day flops that better than it looks just at a glance.  It's never good to have a relaxed gradient neg-head mid level look stuck over the area, no ... but the sun is modulating big time now so unless the pattern gets a fresh insert of goop ( like May 2005 kept doing for example...) the corrections will tend to erode that look.

Now watch...tonight's run comes in with a fresh insert of goop :axe:

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

JFC EPS is nasty. 

Jentucky Fried Chicken  ?

what does that mean -

heh... actually, the Euro with 3 days of Iceland to PWM stream lines...  nice -

man, this model will not stop until it actually succeeds at physically engineering a shit eater pattern -

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