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April 2021 Discussion

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Ginx snewx
Ginx snewx

Meh, more doo added last night as we  had an emergency rescue of 13 pups whose mother tragically died.  We are fostering these two cuties 6 weeks old 

George001
George001

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscen

RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Still looks overall to me like Thursday's trough and interior Maritime Canada bombogen ...back side tortured polar lash through the region ... should really be the last body blow.

Even the Euro is coming around - although it's EPS ensemble had been less.  It seems the trough incursions and roll-in-out air masses from this end week on are more seasonal and not as bizarrely deep in cold anomaly. 

There is one little Leslie Nielson afterthought slap upon exit on Sunday.  That's a pretty interesting rapid cyclogenesis gale bomb out there.  But it's backside isn't as cold ... Still and interesting dynamic system there.   But afterword, the whole tapestry of the hemispere from the GOA to the D. Straight to Bermuda to the Baja of Cali is coherently  spring ...even has some demonstratively warmer than normal plumes.   The whole of it is neutral-positive, as opposed to the neutral-negative - probably the short version way to look at it. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still looks overall to me like Thursday's trough and interior Maritime Canada bombogen ...back side tortured polar lash through the region ... should really be the last body blow.

Even the Euro is coming around - although it's EPS ensemble had been less.  It seems the trough incursions and roll-in-out air masses from this end week on are more seasonal and not as bizarrely deep in cold anomaly. 

There is one little Leslie Nielson afterthought slap upon exit on Sunday.  That's a pretty interesting rapid cyclogenesis gale bomb out there.  But it's backside isn't as cold ... Still and interesting dynamic system there.   But afterword, the whole tapestry of the hemispere from the GOA to the D. Straight to Bermuda to the Baja of Cali is coherently  spring ...even has some demonstratively warmer than normal plumes.   The whole of it is neutral-positive, as opposed to the neutral-negative - probably the short version way to look at it. 

There's another closed ULL in the pattern before your plume

download (13).png

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

3k has 17 at the Picnic tables 

The upslope should be fluffy on the peaks.  The DGZ drops like 15,000ft down to 850mb for the upslope portion.  Wind looks strong though so probably inhibits accums to an extent there.  I’m thinking 4-8” for the ski area. Chance more at the picnic tables?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still looks overall to me like Thursday's trough and interior Maritime Canada bombogen ...back side tortured polar lash through the region ... should really be the last body blow.

Even the Euro is coming around - although it's EPS ensemble had been less.  It seems the trough incursions and roll-in-out air masses from this end week on are more seasonal and not as bizarrely deep in cold anomaly. 

There is one little Leslie Nielson afterthought slap upon exit on Sunday.  That's a pretty interesting rapid cyclogenesis gale bomb out there.  But it's backside isn't as cold ... Still and interesting dynamic system there.   But afterword, the whole tapestry of the hemispere from the GOA to the D. Straight to Bermuda to the Baja of Cali is coherently  spring ...even has some demonstratively warmer than normal plumes.   The whole of it is neutral-positive, as opposed to the neutral-negative - probably the short version way to look at it. 

Tried to tell em. They screamed cut off low We screamed no back 

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dendrite

dendrite

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Posted
30 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This one looks a little sloppier and less slam-dunk than the last one, at least at my spot. Could be a back-and-forth battle with rain mixing in.

12z ncep and 00z euro were a quick SN to mix to RA on the front end for most of NNE except far NW VT which stays snow. Then the mid level warm sector comes through and most of the accums occur on the wraparound and upslope. Ukie was a little colder for far N VT/NH.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Still looks overall to me like Thursday's trough and interior Maritime Canada bombogen ...back side tortured polar lash through the region ... should really be the last body blow.

Even the Euro is coming around - although it's EPS ensemble had been less.  It seems the trough incursions and roll-in-out air masses from this end week on are more seasonal and not as bizarrely deep in cold anomaly. 

There is one little Leslie Nielson afterthought slap upon exit on Sunday.  That's a pretty interesting rapid cyclogenesis gale bomb out there.  But it's backside isn't as cold ... Still and interesting dynamic system there.   But afterword, the whole tapestry of the hemispere from the GOA to the D. Straight to Bermuda to the Baja of Cali is coherently  spring ...even has some demonstratively warmer than normal plumes.   The whole of it is neutral-positive, as opposed to the neutral-negative - probably the short version way to look at it. 

The pacific is killing the remaining few opportunities at record cold/snowfall. But it looks more like we’re trading New England in March for Ireland in May. It’s progress. But far from the pattern we hope for this time of year...Great for growing though...

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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8 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The pacific is killing the remaining few opportunities at record cold/snowfall. But it looks more like we’re trading New England in March for Ireland in May. It’s progress. But far from the pattern we hope for this time of year...Great for growing though...

Looks dry overall after Sunday’s showers 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I even added the Stein emoji to our SLACK service at work. :lol:   There's about 3 ppl that would get it, but it's awesome.

I wish Dendy would add it to the like button here along with the trophy, weenie, confused emoji’s. That would be the best . Just checking Stein face to posts 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The pacific is killing the remaining few opportunities at record cold/snowfall. But it looks more like we’re trading New England in March for Ireland in May. It’s progress. But far from the pattern we hope for this time of year...Great for growing though...

Heh... The Pacific circulation envelope has been sort of f*ed all cold season ...going back to perhaps 2004 ( Lol )

Seriously though, telecon layouts have been demoing repeating poor correlations ...whereby they were remarkably more linearly suggestive between 1920 (reanalysis...) and the early 2000s.

I think it's CC frankly ...and I'm willing to push the hypothesis that the expanding Hadley Cell/tropical mass envelope into the lower Ferrel latitudes ( as discussed in climate reports et al...) is having a integrated effect on global base-line geostrophic wind velocities, and these are skewing the R-wave progression and residences, which could certainly explain some of the reason why ENSOs are less representative - not saying there's 0 climate impacts - people read things and tend to pack the comprehension at absolute ends of concepts but ( not you per se just sayn') this is all just by 'tendency' ...

But it's enough therein to f shit up... Particularly, this seasonal lag thing that is dumping weird cold plumes in April's and May's  ... To be fair and honest, I'm saying Thursday is the last body blow - but that is relative to the present signals et al, but I also just got down indicating those signals are less than dependable. So, May may ( pun intended ) 1977 our asses for all I know...and we'll have a couple of 80 F days before then just make sure that the bud killer cold claims as many orchard trees as it physically can. ...I'm getting increasingly snark-droll here.

Anyway, the operational tenor is the key...and it matches the -PNA for whatever vestige of worth that has....  So that part agrees with you.  The MJO, on the other hand, does not.

It has a robust signal now late 7-8-1 ... That's a whole 'nother issue.   There's even a re-curving cyclone near Japan ... and I don't think it is too late in the season for the thermal flux into the westerlies out there to send a ripple down through the Americas from that uptake ... clock is ticking...Once the season really finally does break down to summer nebular flow constructs ...that transmission circuitry falls apart until October...  The problem with the MJO is that it, too, has been buried in the HC to the point where it may not be forcing as capable as it was 20 years ago.  Lot of changes in the global eddy - the previous understanding needs modulation. But, we are passing out of the hemispheric gradient and velocity, and the wave suddenly becoming robust is probably because it's signature is no longer being as damped by the former footprint.  So "maybe" that allows it to force more ?  Supposition...but I feel a good one.  It may not mean snow ... duh.  I mean we could get record cold now and have it be too warm for snow at this point now passing the 20th of April.  

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