Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Today is intensely beautiful to the point of NWS creating a new category, and warning civility with it ... not to operate heavy machinery while under the influence of the ambience. It's like either this weather, or it's metaphor: girl/guy of one's dream, blanket, field of aromatic flowers, wine, cheese and bj's ... It's hard to believe that thickness as are really still 538 to 545 dm out there. With pop-corn cu and intense irradiance-scorching nape sun spot lighting in splashes as it cleaves in between them upon my lonely stage. It seems like it should be 552 DM with leaf bloom out there. Lawns green and growing, tho. I think there must be some convection already possible. With the sun continuing to add thermal energy to the bottom of a thickness column that resides under lower heights like this - that's sort of an indirect way of flagging instibility in the column. Low DP thermal instability ... light shower, single pop of thunder and modest toned-down microburst tendency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Gorgeous day out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Absolutely spectacular out. Trees on the verge of leafing out any day now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 ineedsnow would prefer 38F and drizzle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ... But, perhaps that's about the change. A couple months ago I speculated on a warmer than normal spring. At the time I stated three plausible factors/or questions contributing: -- La Nina climatology -- HC expansion hypothesis ( could go either way ...) -- Whether or not these two factors would constructively or destructively interfere. In purer La Nina: ... you know, when I go back and just look at the coarse .. yet real monthly ENSO means going back to 1950s, https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php, and noting/comparing them to very warm spring/spring synoptic warm events over eastern N/A ... -ENSO appear to correlate there just based on a cursory scan of the data. -.5 to -2.0 ENSO in the 3.4 .. and adjoining basin notwithstanding, but some notables1976 April... 2012 April ...just to name a couple. 1976 was insane! The UML station at me alma mater put up a five day heat wave of 90 to 96 ... and looking through the data at the location, it wasn't a fluke episode as an island to the season. They were 70s if not 80s carrying on and on, and just seem to sort of seamlessly fade into mid summer that year. This year was similar in the ENSO spectrum... yet it doesn't seem sensibly to be doing the same sort of thing. Obviously it has not been 90 - ha. I think this is an HC spring again ... much like the dominant signal over the past 7 years... with disruptive early warmth fleeting 'momentary synoptics' not sustained, then failing to episodic or prolonged -NAO / .. blocking periods that regressed April and May at times. It would appear diurnal minimums skew the temps higher, and confuse/obfuscate the truth of what's going on. HC doesn't mean warm heights per se... the energy, in winter, is mechanical as fast flow; then when that seasonally terminates, the atmosphere responds during that d(gradient) period time ...with blocking... 'continental folding -over' causing super-synoptic 'tucking' over east N/A mid latitudes.. You have to almost understand non-linear wave mechanics as an emergent tendency more so than an actual visible weather chart footprint. Tendencies are why we get NE flow down the coastal plain from Maine - that's an example of in situ tendencies that 'favor' an outcome, and given any excuse to realize... the tendency dominates. I think when the Pacific is averaging a faster flow and then it tries to abate ... as it passes through some velocity/mass-balancing phase ...we pass through tendency for trough evolution over Ontario-Quebec and tucking E flow into the M/A... Think of it as an invisible Kelvin Hemholtz wave where the atmosphere is trying to get to that structure - Intensely hypothetic and speculative but I think it's an intriguing idea... "Hadley Cell expansion and plausible effects on hemispheric basal mode circulation during transition season" - that's the title of your paper. That all said... I surmise "IF" there is value to that - as in real .. heh - I think it is "partially" masking the ENSO spring climo. The 00z GFS offers 70s and 80s D8 to 11 .. 12 as obviously highly negotiable ... The 06z was even more impressive, with 90 suggested D10.5! ... The GEFs -based telecon spread neutralizes the NAO ( as has been the case for days in the nightly computations) ...while the PNA at least transiently demos a concerted dip to -2 ST out there D 7 -14. Meanwhile, the EPS spatial/synoptic mean is more like the GEFs in that regard, signaling that the operational Euro may be over-zealous with its conserving and/or introducing additional curved trajectories to the look from D7 to 12. I suspect that D10 meandering low is not going to be there - despite the 1980s in older poster's thoughts and nostalgia for New England springs... it's not the quite there because of the latter, but by convention of the Euro tending to slow and anchor flows an operational bias. I think all these deterministic methods suggest a significant warm up is out there to end the month. Yeah we started noticing that yesterday, and mentioned folks likely want to prepare this week with AC installs etc. HHH is coming hard and it’s coming fast . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 27 minutes ago, Hoth said: Absolutely spectacular out. Trees on the verge of leafing out any day now. I have a 250 year old Maple kitty corner my property that looms authoritatively over all others. Oh they try to compare and act like they're celebrities too, but they are just part of its entourage. Over the years I've lived in this house much longer than I ever wanted to ... I have used "General Sherman" as my pet name for its majestic scaffolding so vast as to provide it's own ecological kingdom ... Probably the perfect setting for a children's book, with a squirrel family, and "Mr tuck" the wood pecker..., and scary part of town where the honey bees are too temping to keep teenagers off of sweet drugs...be leery of society pitfalls and getting 'stung' heh I don't really think the 'blooming' part of spring is happening until that guy says, and he does so by the crack of the bud. They are not cracked, but they are huge! I don't see it holding back over today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Still have patches of snow lingering from Friday. Should all be gone by afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah we started noticing that yesterday, and mentioned folks likely want to prepare this week with AC installs etc. HHH is coming hard and it’s coming fast . I used to make fun of you for this .. .but then it become too easy when considering ( specifically ) that choice of word syntax - lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Absolutely spectacular out. Trees on the verge of leafing out any day now. It was nice here, 58F and showers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Getting to be that time of the year. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Sunday looks like it could be pretty wet. Stein on the ropes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Sunday looks like it could be pretty wet. Stein on the ropes He’s dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s dead. Yup...Big time dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup...Big time dead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 42 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It was nice here, 58F and showers now. Yeah, one of those self-destructive days. No showers yet, but the sky certainly looks like it could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Just now, Hoth said: Yeah, one of those self-destructive days. No showers yet, but the sky certainly looks like it could produce. Classic stuff with radar exploding into popcorn over the past 2-3 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Classic stuff with radar exploding into popcorn over the past 2-3 hours. Popcorn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Classic stuff with radar exploding into popcorn over the past 2-3 hours. Yeah, interesting driving around. I’ll go from torrential rain to bone dry roads a mile further down the road, back to torrential rain, back to dry roads in another mile or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Absolutely spectacular out. Trees on the verge of leafing out any day now. Young (~12 year old/40' tall) Tulip tree in the back yard had actual leaves popping out yesterday. I expect by the end of this week it'll be nice and green. Lot's of flowers on all the maples too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Big big winter incoming: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 Is Phin missing another snowstorm ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is Phin missing another snowstorm ? An interesting correlation between snow events and his absence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 That one gets pretty cold too, second half the Euro has 2m in the 20s at MVL. Starts mid-30s and immediately wet-bulbs to low 30s, then chills to 27F. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: An interesting correlation between snow events and his absence After this winter, He needs to stay in MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted April 19, 2021 Author Share Posted April 19, 2021 Summer is basically here! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 59 minutes ago, dryslot said: After this winter, He needs to stay in MD. I thought we were bros... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: After this winter, He needs to stay in MD. We may need to pool our funds and buy him out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 There is definitely a correlation between me leaving Randolph and it snowing. I have noticed it. I hope it’s not permanent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 13 minutes ago, mreaves said: We may need to pool our funds and buy him out. But what if Eyewall moved into the Randolph place in his stead? Would it ever snow again or would it break all the jinxes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 19, 2021 Share Posted April 19, 2021 For those that use bufkit has anyone ever had this problem? The slide bar to adjust time is gone...also the slide bar in the overview section is gone. Some setting must have gotten unchecked but I can find anything. I know you can use your computer arrows to adjust time but that doesn't work in the overview window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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