Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

Today is intensely beautiful to the point of NWS creating a new category, and warning civility with it ... not to operate heavy machinery while under the influence of the ambience. 

It's like either this weather, or it's metaphor:   girl/guy of one's dream, blanket, field of aromatic flowers, wine, cheese and bj's ...

It's hard to believe that thickness as are really still 538 to 545 dm out there. With pop-corn cu and intense irradiance-scorching nape sun spot lighting in splashes as it cleaves in between them upon my lonely stage.

It seems like it should be 552 DM with leaf bloom out there.  Lawns green and growing, tho. 

I think there must be some convection already possible.  With the sun continuing to add thermal energy to the bottom of a thickness column that resides under lower heights like this - that's sort of an indirect way of flagging instibility in the column.   Low DP thermal instability ... light shower, single pop of thunder and modest toned-down microburst tendency

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... But, perhaps that's about the change.

A couple months ago I speculated on a warmer than normal spring.  At the time I stated three plausible factors/or questions contributing:

-- La Nina climatology

-- HC expansion hypothesis ( could go either way ...)

-- Whether or not these two factors would constructively or destructively interfere.

In purer La Nina:  ... you know, when I go back and just look at the coarse .. yet real monthly ENSO means going back to 1950s, https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php, and noting/comparing them to very warm spring/spring synoptic warm events over eastern N/A ...  -ENSO appear to correlate there just based on a cursory scan of the data.  -.5 to -2.0 ENSO in the 3.4 .. and adjoining basin notwithstanding, but some notables1976 April... 2012 April ...just to name a couple. 

1976 was insane!  The UML station at me alma mater put up a five day heat wave of 90 to 96 ... and looking through the data at the location, it wasn't a fluke episode as an island to the season. They were 70s if not 80s carrying on and on, and just seem to sort of seamlessly fade into mid summer that year. 

This year was similar in the ENSO spectrum... yet it doesn't seem sensibly to be doing the same sort of thing.  Obviously it has not been 90 - ha. 

I think this is an HC spring again ... much like the dominant signal over the past 7 years... with disruptive early warmth fleeting 'momentary synoptics' not sustained, then failing to episodic or prolonged -NAO / .. blocking periods that regressed April and May at times.  It would appear diurnal minimums skew the temps higher, and confuse/obfuscate the truth of what's going on.  HC doesn't mean warm heights per se... the energy, in winter, is mechanical as fast flow; then when that seasonally terminates, the atmosphere responds during that d(gradient) period time ...with blocking... 'continental folding -over' causing super-synoptic 'tucking' over east N/A mid latitudes.. You have to almost understand non-linear wave mechanics as an emergent tendency more so than an actual visible weather chart footprint.  Tendencies are why we get NE flow down the coastal plain from Maine - that's an example of in situ tendencies that 'favor' an outcome, and given any excuse to realize... the tendency dominates.  I think when the Pacific is averaging a faster flow and then it tries to abate ... as it passes through some velocity/mass-balancing phase ...we pass through tendency for trough evolution over Ontario-Quebec and tucking E flow into the M/A...   Think of it as an invisible Kelvin Hemholtz wave where the atmosphere is trying to get to that structure -

Intensely hypothetic and speculative but I think it's an intriguing idea...   "Hadley Cell expansion and plausible effects on hemispheric basal mode circulation during transition season" - that's the title of your paper. 

That all said... I surmise "IF" there is value to that - as in real .. heh - I think it is "partially" masking the ENSO spring climo. 

The 00z GFS offers 70s and 80s D8 to 11 .. 12 as obviously highly negotiable ... The 06z was even more impressive, with 90 suggested D10.5!  ... The GEFs -based telecon spread neutralizes the NAO ( as has been the case for days in the nightly computations) ...while the PNA at least transiently demos a concerted dip to -2 ST out there D 7 -14.  Meanwhile, the EPS spatial/synoptic mean is more like the GEFs in that regard, signaling that the operational Euro may be over-zealous with its conserving and/or introducing additional curved trajectories to the look from D7 to 12.  I suspect that D10 meandering low is not going to be there - despite the 1980s in older poster's thoughts and nostalgia for New England springs... it's not the quite there because of the latter, but by convention of the Euro tending to slow and anchor flows an operational bias. 

I think all these deterministic methods suggest a significant warm up is out there to end the month.

Yeah we started noticing that yesterday, and mentioned folks likely want to prepare this week with AC installs etc. HHH is coming hard and it’s coming fast .

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Absolutely spectacular out. Trees on the verge of leafing out any day now.

I have a 250 year old Maple kitty corner my property that looms authoritatively over all others.  Oh they try to compare and act like they're celebrities too, but they are just part of its entourage.   Over the years I've lived in this house much longer than I ever wanted to ... I have used "General Sherman" as my pet name for its majestic scaffolding so vast as to provide it's own ecological kingdom ... Probably the perfect setting for a children's book, with a squirrel family, and "Mr tuck" the wood pecker..., and scary part of town where the honey bees are too temping to keep teenagers off of sweet drugs...be leery of society pitfalls and getting 'stung'  heh

I don't really think the 'blooming' part of spring is happening until that guy says, and he does so by the crack of the bud.   They are not cracked, but they are huge!  I don't see it holding back over today and tomorrow. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah we started noticing that yesterday, and mentioned folks likely want to prepare this week with AC installs etc. HHH is coming hard and it’s coming fast .

I used to make fun of you for this .. .but then it become too easy when considering ( specifically ) that choice of word syntax - lol..

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Absolutely spectacular out. Trees on the verge of leafing out any day now.

Young (~12 year old/40' tall) Tulip tree in the back yard had actual leaves popping out yesterday.  I expect by the end of this week it'll be nice and green.  Lot's of flowers on all the maples too.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those that use bufkit has anyone ever had this problem? The slide bar to adjust time is gone...also the slide bar in the overview section is gone. Some setting must have gotten unchecked but I can find anything. I know you can use your computer arrows to adjust time but that doesn't work in the overview window

image.thumb.png.b9a5dbc15abf243abad5e441867ab8e9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...