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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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12 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Can you imagine if Fournier walks after this season?  Ainge will have given up 2 draft picks and most of the Hayward money for nothing. 

Actually it is even worse lol ...the C's also traded 2 second round picks to Charlotte as part of the Hayward deal. ....so if Fournier leaves in free agency, which I think is very likely,   the Celtics would have traded Hayward, Teaague,  4 2nd round picks and lost Fournier in free agency ,  and used 17 million of the TPE and be left with  11 million of the TPE and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2022 ....

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We have. When the poles flip in winter, it tends to persist. 

I’m 50/50 on it. We’ve seen these ULLs and blocks trend weaker or east a bit with time before. We’re right on that edge right now of maybe sneaking away with a few nicer days or a complete shitshow for a week. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m 50/50 on it. We’ve seen these ULLs and blocks trend weaker or east a bit with time before. We’re right on that edge right now of maybe sneaking away with a few nicer days or a complete shitshow for a week. 

I think we sneak some DSD days...but overall...just seems meh. Euro op might be the other extreme.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m 50/50 on it. We’ve seen these ULLs and blocks trend weaker or east a bit with time before. We’re right on that edge right now of maybe sneaking away with a few nicer days or a complete shitshow for a week. 

True. I don’t mean it is a cold and rainy pattern as far as the weenie can see but it’s not a truck washing frisbee throwing chest hair shaving kind of look either. Could be some back and forth. 

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

Nws elimated Chatham balloon launches?? 

Well more like Mother Nature. Erosion FTL. Not sure if they will even search for a new one. Honestly, satellite technology is pretty good. I don't think missing a baloon launch between Maine and Long Island will matter much. Unless, NHC makes a fuss about it.

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Planning on sunny days in 60’s all next week after Easter. Nothing has changed in days 

It doesn't look horrible after Monday, don't see any warm torches besides maybe 1 day on GFS.  As long as it's sunny with light winds, 57-64 for highs will be just fine first half of April, especially with the increasing sun angle.  Yesterday under full sun with an annoying wind felt very warm with a high of 58. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be a couple DSD days on the EPS, but overall...still looks rather meh to me. Euro op.....:yikes:

Yup.
 

Partly/mostly cloudy and breezy with mid 50’s ain’t much fun. 
 

If we can get mostly/full sunny like yesterday, with light wind, then we good for 60 or so, and that works fine, like yesterday.  

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well more like Mother Nature. Erosion FTL. Not sure if they will even search for a new one. Honestly, satellite technology is pretty good. I don't think missing a baloon launch between Maine and Long Island will matter much. Unless, NHC makes a fuss about it.

They can’t do it at BOX or FMH?

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The NWS can't even spend money to fix their own technical infrastructure (which isn't their fault), nevermind build a place to launch a balloon.

We sent quite a few up at Plymouth. They should have all of the met schools sending them up...nice job for the met lab students. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

We sent quite a few up at Plymouth. They should have all of the met schools sending them up...nice job for the met lab students. 

I agree. Great idea. Not sure how much people know, but the NWS infrastructure has been a disaster recently.  We get alerts and notifications all the time because it affects customers. It's frustrating that an agency who's job is to protect life and property can't get the funding to have a competent and reliable comm infrastructure to send out info. It's not even their fault. I can imagine how frustrating it is for those folks. 

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Depends on what one wants I suppose...  If they wanted impressive weather modeling cinema of any kind, no.

Everything the Euro does beyond D 5 ( in general ...but especially in April variability) should be taken very lightly ... Still, it has a blue/elevation snow signal on D10 ... I would have thought that would have got at least someone to explain to us why that can happen -

 ... I'm noticing (tedious) that the last 24 hours -worth of Euro and GFS run cycles have been adding subtle wind momentum coming off the Pacific,  trajectory over the arc of the fragile ridging underneath.  Such that by 72 hours ... the stream over southern Manitoba to lower Ontario (500 mb) has sneakily increased by 5 to 10 kts, compared to the runs two days ago. It's crucial if that is true - the Pacific has been routinely over assessed all season long ( and perhaps going back early years ...it's just the first year I have noticed it this bad).  Those wind packets are scheduled by present cycle -guidance to arrive, Friday, over land - this whole situation is very sensitive to subtleties therein.

In all ... I don't think we are getting out of this spring without a couple ..three interludes of -NAO ...  I think ( theoretically ) that the advent of those blocking periods is a "non-linear wave dispersion" effect from an erstwhile fast hemisphere that then enters a reduction in kinetic velocity due to gradient abandonment - the embedded wave mechanics get stranded in that sense, and they pile up ( completing the metaphor).   But the where dictates how it effects us... We can have a -NAO over east of 55W out there, and the wave lengths are such that it means nothing to us...and we open up to more westerly flow weather types.  Or, it can orient west ..and the opposite happens like the Euro insists - although 12z yesterday was interesting.  Or, either in relative amplitude can cause anomalies that way too... I know of no method that can precisely nail down the variation that becomes destiny.  

 

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36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It doesn't look horrible after Monday, don't see any warm torches besides maybe 1 day on GFS.  As long as it's sunny with light winds, 57-64 for highs will be just fine first half of April, especially with the increasing sun angle.  Yesterday under full sun with an annoying wind felt very warm with a high of 58. 

Yeah I’m not sure what a couple folks are referring to. Def the farther NE you go the more danger , but even there doesn’t look bad at all. Any coastal communities esp in MA will be cooler . I think that’s why they worry 

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Isn't it always sorta cool and crappy along the coast in April?  I can remember many cool April days when i lived in Boston.  A couple opening day games I went to were pretty nasty, Patriots day games as well.  My location here is a much better for nice April weather.   

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