April 2021 Discussion

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That area from the berks north into VT have been in the jack for the last 8-12 cycles.

N orh and Monads seem to have beefed up a tad. The towns like Marlow, Stoddard, Washington near 2K in Monads have some wiggle room ...where as 1K in N orh County still will probably play victim to the clowns to a degree.. i.e 4-6 instead of 10". It looks so close

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

That area from the berks north into VT have been in the jack for the last 8-12 cycles.

Yeah they are locked in. The biggest question mark in SNE right now is near ORH up to near hubbdave. Very high stakes there in that zone. I could honestly see that swath getting double digits or a sloppy inch. Both are totally plausible. I’m leaning more toward the lower end at the moment but it won’t take much to change that. 

I’d prob feel pretty good N or NW of FIT in Ashburnham or Winchendon/Gardner. Even hubbdave a little further south I’d be starting to feel more confident in at least advisory snow if not warning. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they are locked in. The biggest question mark in SNE right now is near ORH up to near hubbdave. Very high stakes there in that zone. I could honestly see that swath getting double digits or a sloppy inch. Both are totally plausible. I’m leaning more toward the lower end at the moment but it won’t take much to change that. 

I’d prob feel pretty good N or NW of FIT in Ashburnham or Winchendon/Gardner. Even hubbdave a little further south I’d be starting to feel more confident in at least advisory snow if not warning. 

Whineminster at 1280' is gonna be interesting. What a spot for ORH county 

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they are locked in. The biggest question mark in SNE right now is near ORH up to near hubbdave. Very high stakes there in that zone. I could honestly see that swath getting double digits or a sloppy inch. Both are totally plausible. I’m leaning more toward the lower end at the moment but it won’t take much to change that. 

I’d prob feel pretty good N or NW of FIT in Ashburnham or Winchendon/Gardner. Even hubbdave a little further south I’d be starting to feel more confident in at least advisory snow if not warning. 

This time of year, You need some help from dynamics in the the lower elevations, But you can see the potential is there in the areas that you mentioned, And its not going to take much for a paste bomb if it goes right.

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they are locked in. The biggest question mark in SNE right now is near ORH up to near hubbdave. Very high stakes there in that zone. I could honestly see that swath getting double digits or a sloppy inch. Both are totally plausible. I’m leaning more toward the lower end at the moment but it won’t take much to change that. 

I’d prob feel pretty good N or NW of FIT in Ashburnham or Winchendon/Gardner. Even hubbdave a little further south I’d be starting to feel more confident in at least advisory snow if not warning. 

Cant discount Union over to Stafford; I think that area is going over perform

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

N orh and Monads seem to have beefed up a tad. The towns like Marlow, Stoddard, Washington near 2K in Monads have some wiggle room ...where as 1K in N orh County still will probably play victim to the clowns to a degree.. i.e 4-6 instead of 10". It looks so close

This time of year, I really would like to have some elevation, Even 800' for some may do it, Some of these models are pretty cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here are my thoughts.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/04/spring-noreaster-threatens-localized.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the NAM is decent.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Cant discount Union over to Stafford; I think that area is going over perform

Definitely can’t count them out. I’m a little more worried about slotting issues above 800mb down in CT outside of Litchfield county but even that said, they could still pick up a few inches. If we keep this just a tick SE then it’s game-on for bigger amounts there. 

[ORH_wxman]

I just fired up a thread before the 00z runs. 

We know at least some people in this forum will get hit hard so it’s time to have a thread for it. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Does Ray still have Narcan handy?

Just NAM and GFS...subscription gone.

[George001]

Do you guys think my area has a shot of maybe getting half of the low end of my forecast? I am still holding out hope that things break right but going to need the euro to jump on board soon or im going to start losing confidence SE of 95 zones (including my area). 

[CoastalWx]

On 4/6/2021 at 3:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Late season interior fun on the EPS?

 

On 4/6/2021 at 4:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Just saw EPS....other guidance shows this as well. Def a chance for some late season shenanigans. We'll see if that ULL look is still there in a few days, but a lot of support at the moment for it. Hopefully we get a threat out of it....beats dogshit 40F and rain.

Some did try to tell ‘em.

[Chrisrotary12]

23 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Almost there!

Note: for sensible purposes, not currently expecting accumulations outside of elevation. Flakes yes for most places though.

And the NAM gets to where I thought we might at some point in the modeling guidance. It is currently the furthest southeast member of guidance, but everything is slowly drifting that way, but I doubt it gets all the way there.

Does this system synoptically remind anyone else of the late February 2010 storm? LP center backing into SNE from the southeast. That was the Merrimack Valley wind storm right?

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein expands his webbed hands!

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This thing here in the foreground certainly is a lot of fun ...

But, that fun extinguishes per every hour that surpasses beyond the end of the foreground event ... particularly should the hemisphere go into an ice age that eclipses the summer and all CC physics - in other words, metaphysically.  Lol -

No but the 00z Euro completes pattern change beyond ~ D6/7 ...ending in a decidedly different CONUS ...having all cold constricted/retreated back to the Can Shield, and is hoped to succeed -

The GFS of course is still scrubbing seasonal change out of every run like it thinks its an error, finding a hemisphere more like November 10 by D 7 as base-line agenda by NCEP  as usual... so it can't be trusted any more the other way. SO, flip coin... probably ends up between.

But before that even happens... D4 and D5 on the Euro would almost be classic for a spring blue bomb - two days later,...knocks on the door of 65 in full sun.  Bye bye spring blue - no worse for the wear.  Dust off and move along.

It's nice to not have a 10 day whirl cut off SE of Cape Cod ... could be that version.   But dealing with farmer's gold spring snow, then soaring into the 60s is the way to get fun done without having to stench in the afterglow.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This thing here in the foreground certainly is a lot of fun ...

But, that fun extinguishes per every hour that surpasses beyond the end of the foreground event ... particularly should the hemisphere go into an ice age that eclipses the summer and all CC physics - in other words, metaphysically.  Lol -

No but the 00z Euro completes pattern change beyond ~ D6/7 ...ending in a decidedly different CONUS ...having all cold constricted/retreated back to the Can Shield, and is hoped to succeed -

The GFS of course is still scrubbing seasonal change out of every run like it thinks its an error, finding a hemisphere more like November 10 base-line as usual... so it can't be trust any more the other way. SO, flip coin... probably ends up between.

But before that even happens... D4 and D5 on the Euro would almost be classic for a spring blue bomb - two days later,...knocks on the door of 65 in full sun.  Bye bye spring blue - no worse for the wear.  Dust off and move along.

It's nice to not have a 10 day whirl cut off SE of Cape Cod ...

CPC has most of the US and NE AN later Napril and an AN Mayorch . Just released today. Quick warmup. Even next week features 2 days of 70 interior SNE

[H2Otown_WX]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Stein expands his webbed hands!

 

Stay safe

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

CPC has most of the US and NE AN later Napril and an AN Mayorch . Just released today. Quick warmup. Even next week features 2 days of 70 interior SNE

Yeah, actually the American (GEFs) telecon spread has really in the last two .. three night's -worth flipped the script and signals a pretty demonstrative change may be the next chapter after this thing.

It may only be transient ...? Say 7 to 10 days.... but at the other side, the hemisphere WILL DEFINITELY be in a mutilated solar scenario/seasonality so the signals really should break down in more earnest and observation by then and it probably won't matter so much.

But anyway, by D5 the NAO is completely neutral with some members modestly positive ..some neg ..but the trend is going above 0 SD.  Meanwhile, a highly concerted negative PNA has take place and ... I don't think the MJO is a huge contributor for a lot of long dissertation .. ugh... but, it did spend time through phases 3-6 ... fwiw that correlates to warming over eastern mid latitude/NA... 

short version?  Telecon signaling a rapid warm up - how rapid and or BD this or ... comet impact that that can't be predicted, notwithstanding

[weatherwiz]

Wouldn't be surprised to see accumulating snow potential across parts of northern New England mid-week. 

[SJonesWX]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wouldn't be surprised to see accumulating snow potential across parts of northern New England mid-week. 

do you really have to post this? all it will do is get George all fired up and ready to call the next blizzard.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

do you really have to post this? all it will do is get George all fired up and ready to call the next blizzard.

Maybe he can join James in writing a book

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sunday through Tuesday look decent here. Maybe tickle 70 on Tuesday?

[CoastalWx]

Day 10 euro.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Day 10 euro.

LOL

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Day 10 euro.

All I’m asking for is something chase worthy. This winter sucked for that.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

Too far south 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL

...

Really should be the last one ... LOL

There's been appreciable snow events into May ... and the definition of "appreciable" changes relative to absurdity.

Like, ...I recall peering down from my 3rd floor window down upon Chestnut Street ... living in Waltham back in 2002, during wind swept mix of large cat paw rain drops and the occasional mangled bow-tie noodle sheeting down the street.   May      20        2nd     

One month before the Solstice?   Yeah ...that certainly qualifies as appreciable by shear insult ...  That's the latest relative to calendar while at less than 1,000' elevation, along the 40 to 45 N  latitudes that I recall sniffing snow.  That event actually was putting down 2-3" in some of the Worcester Hills if memory serves - surprised that isn't talked about as much. 

Anyway, the notion cannot be completely withstood with that sort of thing, but we ARE definitely also on the curve of lessening returns.  

Plus, this always seems to happen and it's annoying ...albeit a petty observation of me ( shame...). But we're bathed in misery mist and snow for lucky folks at an obnoxiously late date, and the Euro ALWAYS does this - picks that psycho-babble moment when all these user strings are pulled by the present cold system like so it's 'totally possible,'  to put out an unlikely look that way - just so we can play the 'pretend we're not hoping game' delusion. 

I really am not though.  Man...

[ORH_wxman]

Hard to totally ignore the deep troughing sig over the eastern half of the CONUS. While it is unlikely, another snow event is certainly plausible in that pattern.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Really should be the last one ... LOL

There's been appreciable snow events into May ... and the definition of "appreciable" changes relative to absurdity.

Like, ...I recall peering down from my 3rd floor window down upon Chestnut Street ... living in Waltham back in 2002, during wind swept mix of large cat paw rain drops and the occasional mangled bow-tie noodle sheeting down the street.   May      20        2nd     

One month before the Solstice?   Yeah ...that certainly qualifies as appreciable by shear insult ...  That's the latest relative to calendar while at less than 1,000' elevation, along the 40 to 45 N  latitudes that I recall sniffing snow.  That event actually was putting down 2-3" in some of the Worcester Hills if memory serves - surprised that isn't talked about as much. 

Anyway, the notion cannot be completely withstood with that sort of thing, but we ARE definitely also on the curve of lessening returns.  

Plus, this always seems to happen and it's annoying ...albeit a petty observation of me ( shame...). But we're bathed in misery mist and snow for lucky folks at an obnoxiously late date, and the Euro ALWAYS does this - picks that psycho-babble moment when all these user strings are pulled by the present cold system like so it's 'totally possible,'  to put out an unlikely look that way - just so we can play the 'pretend we're not hoping game' delusion. 

I really am not though.  Man...

Yup. As much as 4” in Templeton MA from that 2002 event.  But I think it was 5/18?