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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Probably a US fail 

That's my gut feeling too, but can't rule out that they are correct yet. A compromise probably isn't good enough for most of us either...except maybe ORH northward at elevation. Hubbdave's area.

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24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Glad I am in FL blasting margaritas instead of up in Randolph sweating these shifts, TBH. 

Trust the east flow.  850mb streamlines look great for that area to maximize whatever comes.

Even the RGEM that ticked a little SE, this prolonged wind flow can’t be denied in that area of NNH.

A892911B-EF7D-45F6-A3EA-C923B294B84F.thumb.png.ce29f5206e686337a790f285dfb48a16.png

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BOX point n click for my hood:

Rain showers before 2am, then snow showers. Low around 33. East wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Friday
Rain and snow showers before 3pm, then snow showers likely between 3pm and 4pm, then rain and snow showers likely after 4pm. High near 38. North wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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At this point while I am almost as bullish on this stock as I am in my GME shares, I highly doubt after this storm we get another flake of snow. I honestly didn’t think we would even have a shot. I had already moved on from winter and storm tracking until I heard the local weatherman say the word “snow”, that’s when I decided to look and I liked what I saw. The low on the Canadian and Euro looks to take a track from roughly block island to right over the canal, and stalls there (euro a bit more inland, more like 10 mi se of my house). I would typically lean against big snows this time of the year since we are a month into spring, but the amount of cold air available in the upper levels, the dynamics, the amplified nature of the flow, and the strength of the low scream big storm. There’s going to likely be over 2 inches of QPF in all of Mass, with jackpots of 3+ inches. If this were even late March there would likely be winter storm warnings and blizzard watches up in all of Mass right now. While the low track isn’t perfect, it’s only like 30-40 miles too NW of ideal and is rapidly bombing out and stalling. However due to it being mid April things are more complicated with high bust potential both high and low. When I first gave my forecast, it (understandably) got a lot of flak due to my previous failed forecasts as well as it being mid April. Now it’s not looking so crazy though, especially in the elevations. My area and se we are going to need some more help, but it wouldn’t take much to get us in on the fun too (maybe 10-20 miles south with the low). 

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Trust the east flow.  850mb streamlines look great for that area to maximize whatever comes.

Even the RGEM that ticked a little SE, this prolonged wind flow can’t be denied in that area of NNH.

A892911B-EF7D-45F6-A3EA-C923B294B84F.thumb.png.ce29f5206e686337a790f285dfb48a16.png

CNE/NNE is looking really good for this one

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's some decent cold coming at us on some guidance later in the month. Some areas of New England won't be done. :lol:  

I don't buy it either...

That appears to be over-wrought and almost inorganic looking so late in the season.   I lean away from that 13 isohypsotic flow maelstrom of the GFS on D12 ... we'll see

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't buy it either...

That appears to be over-wrought and almost inorganic looking so late in the season.   I lean away from that 13 isohypsotic flow maelstrom of the GFS on D12 ... we'll see

I mean even the EPS has some chilly air. Anyways, I mentioned New England and not Southern New England knowing how difficult it would be...but still.

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One great part about this is I have COVID shot #2 tomorrow so I am planning to take Friday off.  Sat Sun look like it will help melt and if it is really bad I can use my new chainsaw.  Springtime at 1200" in Vermont!

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Re the cold look to end out the month ...

What are the EPS indexes right now?   - curious.

The GEFs telecon layout have actually been correcting the cooler complexion more normalized that last couple nights.  Now has neutral PNA out there, as well as this +PNA here in the foreground being less largely so.  

Seems the operational GFS is doing exactly what I said it always f'n does ... It starts off each run cycles with handfuls of warmth it doens't get are caused by seasonal change ( a.k.a. celestial mechanics forcing it's hand) ...then, spends the next 4-6 days worth of time intervals figuring out how to scrub the warm out of the run so that it can get back to NCEP modeler's [ apparent ...] belief that it's always November 12th every day of the year.  :blink:

The Euro is obscene for a different set of reasons... that - I suspect - is related to it's defaulting everything and anything it is handling at D4 and then sees it through a magnification out in time. 

I just don't see 504 height cores over JB on May 1 as very likely ... 

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Euro looks pretty similar to 00z, maybe a hair colder...which was a little SE of 06z. So it ticked back SE some, but not a lot.

That's pretty interesting for ORH county though...esp N ORH county into the S NH and S VT/Berks.

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1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

how many more ticks until we get Kevin doing naked snow angels while branches snap all around? asking for a friend.

Need another 50 miles or so imho before it gets super interesting. Right now you’d prob forecast an inch or two of slop for anyone outside of N ORH county/Berks/SVT/S NH at elevation. 

 

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