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April 2021 Discussion


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What lens are y'all avoiding/seeing through then ...

Should stick out how massively hot the Euro just exploded on D8.5-10 ... not a single comment -

Granted ...D8 isn't reliable. No lol

But that is a full on proper SW/Sonoran heat release event in the Euro... EML with under riding thermally charged 850 mb layer...

It's hilarious how it runs that into a -NAO for an epic war -

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1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Uhhmmm I signed up for The Blizzard Protection Plan....as proof of non delivery I have attached a photo.......when can I expect my refund??? Thank you for your attention to this matter...

Image result for blizzard promise meme

 

Uh there has been a delay due to supply issues, however if you decide to stick with the plan your warranty will be extended another 5 years and you will have special access to the in house george001 model that runs twice a day and uses its own algorithm to make forecasts, so you will have top notch extended forecasts to prepare for next years record breaking winter. When we get several 2 week long -100 millibar strength blizzards with snow piled up higher than you are tall, hurricane force winds, and storm induced tsunamis with waves coming in as far as Worcester, you will know 3-4 weeks in advance! 

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For the record ...that Euro run's on an island as far as I can tell - ... EPS more likely

It's summer in that run's D7 , 8 , 9 , and , 10  - four days of 80+ with elevated lows no doubt. 

Here in NE the run is boundary gaming ...

But the whole structure over the mid latitude continent strikes me as typical Euro taking whatever it's managing on D4.5 and doubling amplitude by D9... blowing up a heat dome.  It's the warm enthusiast's eye-candy run, no different than then a Jan 20th 12z D8 look on the EC. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

But you said only 2wks ago we were in for three blizzards. Next winter's looking bad already? C'mon man, take a break:lol:

I thought for sure we would get 3 blizzards, but there were a couple of major flaws in my analysis of the models. I overestimated how good the pattern was and underestimated the influence of climo. I’m convinced my epic feb forecast wasn’t terrible as we did have below normal temps and above normal snow for the month, but good ol bad luck screwed us. As a snow weenie I would take the pattern we got in feb and gladly run it back every year, as I strongly believe that 9/10 times that pattern delivers 30-40+ inches of snow in the Boston area in Feb alone. Where I live we got close to that in Feb, and I’m only like 45 min away from Boston. Now my March forecast was as horrible as it gets, the pattern that took hold was the opposite of what I expected (though the first week we had one good opportunity, just got unlucky with the PV being in the worst possible spot to squash the low despite the flow not being fast, a strong northern steam, and strong southern stream. Just didn’t work out). I expected March to end up being a Feb 2015 redux, and it was a March 2012 redux so that’s as bad of a forecast as it gets. 

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17 minutes ago, George001 said:

I thought for sure we would get 3 blizzards, but there were a couple of major flaws in my analysis of the models. I overestimated how good the pattern was and underestimated the influence of climo. I’m convinced my epic feb forecast wasn’t terrible as we did have below normal temps and above normal snow for the month, but good ol bad luck screwed us. As a snow weenie I would take the pattern we got in feb and gladly run it back every year, as I strongly believe that 9/10 times that pattern delivers 30-40+ inches of snow in the Boston area in Feb alone. Where I live we got close to that in Feb, and I’m only like 45 min away from Boston. Now my March forecast was as horrible as it gets, the pattern that took hold was the opposite of what I expected (though the first week we had one good opportunity, just got unlucky with the PV being in the worst possible spot to squash the low despite the flow not being fast, a strong northern steam, and strong southern stream. Just didn’t work out). I expected March to end up being a Feb 2015 redux, and it was a March 2012 redux so that’s as bad of a forecast as it gets. 

Things can always be worse...just ask Danny Ainge....he had to watch his star trade deadline acquisition get inducted  into the Boston Bricklayers Union's Hall of Fame after last night's game...

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3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I believe  you are thinking of another season . The 1972 season was delayed because of the players strike. The Sox opened the season with a loss in Detroit  and it turned out to be a crucial loss because the Sox  finished 1/2 game behind the Tigers that  season. I recall the announcers lamenting the opening day loss to the Tigers at the end of the last game of the 72 season.....that season has always stuck with me because the Sox missed  out on  going to the ALCS by 1/2 game.

It had to be 72.  Anyone have the schedule?  When was Fenway opening in ‘72?

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53 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Things can always be worse...just ask Danny Ainge....he had to watch his star trade deadline acquisition get inducted  into the Boston Bricklayers Union's Hall of Fame after last night's game...

Can you imagine if Fournier walks after this season?  Ainge will have given up 2 draft picks and most of the Hayward money for nothing. 

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51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It had to be 72.  Anyone have the schedule?  When was Fenway opening in ‘72?

Jerry it was 71 and Lyttle thrown out at home final.was 3 to 1

YANKEES 8TH: KENNEDY REPLACED LAHOUD (PLAYING 2B); Cater singled
to center; Lyttle singled to center [Cater to second]; Kenney
reached on an error by Kennedy [Cater to third, Lyttle to
second]; TEPEDINO BATTED FOR MICHAEL; Tepedino made an out to
shortstop; GIBBS BATTED FOR BAHNSEN; Gibbs struck out; Clarke
singled to right [Cater scored (unearned), Lyttle out at home
(right to catcher), Kenney to second]; 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 1 E, 2
LOB.  Yankees 1, Red Sox 2.

 

1971-04-06 43 32 37.5 -7.3 27 0 0.25 0.3 0
1971-04-07 47 32 39.5 -5.6 25 0 1.12 1.6 T
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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jerry it was 71 and Lyttle thrown out at home final.was 3 to 1


YANKEES 8TH: KENNEDY REPLACED LAHOUD (PLAYING 2B); Cater singled
to center; Lyttle singled to center [Cater to second]; Kenney
reached on an error by Kennedy [Cater to third, Lyttle to
second]; TEPEDINO BATTED FOR MICHAEL; Tepedino made an out to
shortstop; GIBBS BATTED FOR BAHNSEN; Gibbs struck out; Clarke
singled to right [Cater scored (unearned), Lyttle out at home
(right to catcher), Kenney to second]; 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 1 E, 2
LOB.  Yankees 1, Red Sox 2.

 

1971-04-06 43 32 37.5 -7.3 27 0 0.25 0.3 0
1971-04-07 47 32 39.5 -5.6 25 0 1.12 1.6 T

That’s it!   Thanks Steve.   I guess a few fuzzy details 50 years later isn’t bad....

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A shortwave trough will dig from Ontario Saturday night into

the eastern Great Lakes by Sunday morning. The shortwave will

keep digging southeastward through Sunday. There is some

uncertainty in this window and heading into early next week. The

operational GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/EPS retrograde a cutoff low into

the Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. This will have implications on

temperatures and sensible weather in this timeframe, but there

is a lot of spread amongst guidance in how far west the system

retrogrades. The GEFS and operational GFS are much further east

than the EPS an operational ECWMF.

 

Who's do we believe?

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