CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol this dude is traumatized. It’s also right when the precip starts too. What a dummy. No kidding there might be dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 I’m still skeptical of anything much outside of the Berks like Will said. You’d need another move SE for the mid levels to crank and not slot. GFS Fuji into NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low ) That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT . Southern VT the spot? Do you guys think the upslope high elevation regions have a shot at 16-18+? Only wanna make the drive if theres a shot at like 16-24" 8-12 isnt really chase worthy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Southern VT the spot? Do you guys think the upslope high elevation regions have a shot at 16-18+? Only wanna make the drive if theres a shot at like 16-24" 8-12 isnt really chase worthy right now. Still evolving . S VT near 2k is Still looking to me like the best shot to see a foot . I wish Monads had more spots 1500-2k to choose from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 I will say it was surprising to see the big move on the Euro. That poor model. If we see it again at 6 and 12z .. it’s real.. if not this will be a huge US model failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Euro was very wet too, 2-3”. Anyone thinking of laying down lawn apps should probably wait as you’ll possibly get too much runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I will say it was surprising to see the big move on the Euro. That poor model. If we see it again at 6 and 12z .. it’s real.. if not this will be a huge US model failure It didn't move a whole lot verbatim. I'm looking now. Still goes into SNE. It maybe moved a bit east, but H5 goes over your fanny practically. You need that off the coast of LI IMO for anything siggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I will say it was surprising to see the big move on the Euro. That poor model. If we see it again at 6 and 12z .. it’s real.. if not this will be a huge US model failure Congratulations on accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 GFS H7 low goes over hubby. Good luck with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Congratulations on accumulating snows. Oh I still think it’s very low chance here. It does look better than yesterday with the Messenger shuffle.but still low probs Just waiting for the veritable NAM rug to be pulled out at either 12 or 18z . Wait for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 32 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Still evolving . S VT near 2k is Still looking to me like the best shot to see a foot . I wish Monads had more spots 1500-2k to choose from Woodford VT is a good spot. Savoy MA could still be decent, we’ll know by tonight I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Woodford VT is a good spot. Savoy MA could still be decent, we’ll know by tonight I think. I got a yurt I’m setting up at 2300’ in Savoy state park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I still think it’s very low chance here. It does look better than yesterday with the Messenger shuffle.but still low probs Just waiting for the veritable NAM rug to be pulled out at either 12 or 18z . Wait for it... Nam is tossed but you could sneak in a few. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Noyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I got a yurt I’m setting up at 2300’ in Savoy state park They have a few shelters at the camp ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 I’m thinking the Noyes map might be a little overdone, but plausible. 3” looks a bit high for me, nevermind the 6”. But maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking the Noyes map might be a little overdone, but plausible. 3” looks a bit high for me, nevermind the 6”. But maybe So you’re going T-2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So you’re going T-2”? He's good for several inches probably lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: He's good for several inches probably lol. Not like Hubby to go conservative like this 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: So you’re going T-2”? That sounds reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m thinking the Noyes map might be a little overdone, but plausible. 3” looks a bit high for me, nevermind the 6”. But maybe I'll probably get robbed. Maybe a few mangled flakes if I stayed up late enough. Kinda hoping for a Stein fail here at least. Would help with green up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Not like Hubby to go conservative like this I'm usually more right than wrong for my hood. If I get 3-6" I will admit my defeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said: I'll probably get robbed. Maybe a few mangled flakes if I stayed up late enough. Kinda hoping for a Stein fail here at least. Would help with green up. As MPM noted yesterday, the greenup is really taking off in many areas now. I noticed it over the weekend when in the Brookfields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 NAM is likely on crack....I'd prob lean C-3" over interior elevations with 6"+ confined to high spots of Berkshires/S VT and Monads. Then another max up in Phin's area to W ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noyes Noyes in house model has higher amounts across more of the area but he said he doubted that the model will be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Is there a reasonable shot at some wet snow or ip mixing with the rain in Death Valley? Just enough to say last frozen of the season was 4/14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Still looking like mostly an elevation deal. Good luck with those 10:1 maps during the day with marginal temps in the lower els. GYX discussion mentioned the 10:1, said that about half of that was more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Short memories with the NAM ... ? Lest we forget that it hammered everyone east of the Hudson for multiple runs back in Feb, when other guidance like the UKMET was pancaked and out to sea with cirrus streaks. That set up did not hammer the regions. Big phantom event way too far NW - I warned the NAM does this with NW bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours back then, too ... Inevitably, it left the devoted suckers sitting alone in the cafe staring at the door, wondering if she'll show ... Seeking pros: This is different pattern-wise, however. The flow is slower around this thing, ..the wave-lengths smaller... It's a more self-determining/mechanically conserved "dynamics" storm - drilling down from above also has its deterministic headaches. The baroclinic canvas is almost non-existent in the lower troposphere at event entry, but a crucial feed of cold air ( NAM ) injects at critical timing, as the 500 mb passes underneath SNE. This induces frontogenics ..probably 850 to 600 mb range... which the NAM uses to materialize UVM ... So, upward vertical motion hydrostatically causes downward heights, and that machinery drills its way down - drawing the freezing level with it. For snow ...obviously first to the elevations ...then that looks bit like flashing over to parachutes. I can't throw that behavior away in and of itself, because I've seen that happen in early May. It may be worth it to note, these top-->down events tend not to need 32 to snow below... When height falls take place and freezing level sags deeply under the UVM regions.. the cat-paw temp is probably 40 F believe it or not. Flip to slush blats is 37.6 or something, and it's all snow at 35/36 F after dark. I must admit, it's been pretty anchored across the last 5 consecutive cycles in the NAM, with less variance than any other guidance across that span of runs. Wild speculation but maybe the slower field and shorter wave lengths, and more mechanics not already blown open at the planetary scale but conserving inward to the 'self-centered' low ( haha)... maybe this sort of circumstance et al is just more the NAM's wheelhouse. Euro was yeah ...a tad better at 500mb ...if by attitude alone. Problem is.. obviously this situation being spring marginal incarnate ... has very low tolerances for whether it's cat pawing or flips over to actual aggregates. It may seem out of left field to mention but, 1992 Dec was a wonderful example excessively narrow tolerance razor edging cat paws vs 1/4 mi vis parachutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm usually more right than wrong for my hood. If I get 3-6" I will admit my defeat. we're always forecasted too high. Remember that event like a month ago we were supposed to get 6"? we ended up with like 6 flakes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now