WinterWolf Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z 3k NAM was insane too. Too bad it doesn’t go out another 6-12 hours. It is completely destroying SNE at 60h. But as already mentioned, I’d want to see other guidance before really taking those types of solutions seriously. Ginxy and Ryan mentioned at 18z it was looking like the 3k NAM was gonna go nuts like 12k did if given another couple frames. I guess the 3k is starting to show just that now at 0z. Interesting that both NAMS are showing this potential bomb now for back to back runs....would certainly be historic to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh maybe the NAM can score a coup It’s happened before...it’ll happen again. It’s just a question of whether this is the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 0z models looking a bit better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 The navy and nam (I know it’s not accurate outside 24 hours) not only support the idea of major snow but if they nail this my forecast would bust LOW. I would like to see the Euro and Canadian jump on board but considering that no model had anything near the snow output of my forecast when I made it, it is nice to see models moving in that direction. Too bad the nam is garbage this far out, if anything my forecast would bust low based on the dynamics and upper levels if that model were to be taken vertabraim. I’m going to stick with my euro/Canadian/navy blend for now, which does support the lower end of my forecast (the se of i95 totals would need to be trimmed down though). The snow maps disagree but those don’t matter, what matters is the jet dynamics, the location and strength of the low, the upper level temp profile, and the 500 millibar low (which is rapidly strengthening and stalling right over the cape). R/S lines will be an issue with this storm and it will be a very tricky forecast, but based on what I see on the latest models I don’t see any reason to lower my amounts (I do believe the models will correct south with the r/s line based on what I am seeing, I believe it will wobble from the cape to south shore area, with even those areas going over to snow at the height of the storm. Everyone will start as rain though). 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 The threats keep coming on the GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 0z Euro looks way better let the trend continue!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Looks like H5 is a bit stronger, which is good....but the run wasn't truly nuts because its also a hair north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Still looking like mostly an elevation deal. Good luck with those 10:1 maps during the day with marginal temps in the lower els. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 East slopes ftw Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 315 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 MAZ002-008-009-142015- /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0006.210416T0000Z-210417T0000Z/ Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA- Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford 315 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or more is possible. * WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western Hampden MA Counties. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Some power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 925 low on euro was a bit East , ESE to be specific 50 more miles SE and it’s game on Gets tolland County several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 6z NAM going to crush again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 At this point. It’s just interesting. At least something to consider but probably still sell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At this point. It’s just interesting. At least something to consider but probably still sell 6z NAM is historic wow if only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 lol NAM is frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 6z NAM is historic wow if only! I still am skeptical of any snow at all outside of the Berks/ NW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 mid April fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Pivotal weenie map 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Time for Dave to gas up his generator. Not much concern at this point pretty much east of I-190. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low ) That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low ) That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT With a super sharp cut-off to meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: lol NAM is frigid We remember last year during the day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Steined 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We remember last year during the day I am confused how some models have 2-3” of cement in the CT River valley and nothing for Stafford or Union Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low ) That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT . Yeah we need another 50 miles or so on the Euro over the interior for anyone east of the Berkshires and Litchfield county for siggy snows...as is, prob some minor accums, but if we’re chasing a big one his late, then we need near-perfection (ala NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we need another 50 miles or so on the Euro over the interior for anyone east of the Berkshires and Litchfield county for siggy snows...as is, prob some minor accums, but if we’re chasing a big one his late, then we need near-perfection (ala NAM) Some would prefer 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Steined Dumb ass 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Steined lol this dude is traumatized. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol this dude is traumatized. I think its hilarious. I am absolutely fascinated with him and his mentality. I actually think he’s rooting for drought and pretending that he wants rain. He is just totally off the rails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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