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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z 3k NAM was insane too. Too bad it doesn’t go out another 6-12 hours. It is completely destroying SNE at 60h. 

But as already mentioned, I’d want to see other guidance before really taking those types of solutions seriously. 

Ginxy and Ryan mentioned at 18z it was looking like the 3k NAM was gonna go nuts like 12k did if given another couple frames. I guess the 3k is starting to show just that now at 0z.   
 

Interesting that both NAMS are showing this potential bomb now for back to back runs....would certainly be historic to say the least. 

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The navy and nam (I know it’s not accurate outside 24 hours) not only support the idea of major snow but if they nail this my forecast would bust LOW. I would like to see the Euro and Canadian jump on board but considering that no model had anything near the snow output of my forecast when I made it, it is nice to see models moving in that direction. Too bad the nam is garbage this far out, if anything my forecast would bust low based on the dynamics and upper levels if that model were to be taken vertabraim. I’m going to stick with my euro/Canadian/navy blend for now, which does support the lower end of my forecast (the se of i95 totals would need to be trimmed down though). The snow maps disagree but those don’t matter, what matters is the jet dynamics, the location and strength of the low, the upper level temp profile, and the 500 millibar low (which is rapidly strengthening and stalling right over the cape). R/S lines will be an issue with this storm and it will be a very tricky forecast, but based on what I see on the latest models I don’t see any reason to lower my amounts (I do believe the models will correct south with the r/s line based on what I am seeing, I believe it will wobble from the cape to south shore area, with even those areas going over to snow at the height of the storm. Everyone will start as rain though).

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East slopes ftw

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
315 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

MAZ002-008-009-142015-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0006.210416T0000Z-210417T0000Z/
Western Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Chesterfield, and Blandford
315 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6
  inches or more is possible.

* WHERE...Western Franklin MA, Western Hampshire MA and Western
  Hampden MA Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult. Some power outages are
  possible.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&
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Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low )

That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday  (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 

0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday 

If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT . 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low )

That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday  (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 

0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday 

If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT 

With a super sharp cut-off to meh.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low )

That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday  (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 

0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday 

If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT . 

Yeah we need another 50 miles or so on the Euro over the interior for anyone east of the Berkshires and Litchfield county for siggy snows...as is, prob some minor accums, but if we’re chasing a big one his late, then we need near-perfection (ala NAM)

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we need another 50 miles or so on the Euro over the interior for anyone east of the Berkshires and Litchfield county for siggy snows...as is, prob some minor accums, but if we’re chasing a big one his late, then we need near-perfection (ala NAM)

Some would prefer 75

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