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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed.

This is close to popping something pretty significant for even lower areas, but it just can't quite get its act together this run. If that ULL stretches out a little further SE before pinwheeling back then I think you'd get a better thermal conveyor going....it obviously needs to be watched closely.

This is what the 18z NAM did. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew the big pattern would wait until April to come back. Glad I didn't take the March cheese again like I did last year.

One of these days March will be a winter month again...

And silly question, why the 0.5” obsession? Is that for your seasonal forecast for your hood?

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LBSW....began that way, may as well finish that way.

That is only partway through the event. It’s still a NW CT jackpot that run but there’s a lot more snow that falls over E MA after that panel. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is what the 18z NAM did. 

Just curious b/c when looking at the 18z NAM I noticed how stretched and elongated H5 was...and was wondering where it would close...but then seeing the NAM close off at 850 south of LI then 700 you knew...but...my question is why does a stretched out look enhance thermal conveyor? 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Just curious b/c when looking at the 18z NAM I noticed how stretched and elongated H5 was...and was wondering where it would close...but then seeing the NAM close off at 850 south of LI then 700 you knew...but...my question is why does a stretched out look enhance thermal conveyor? 

Yeah it tries to yank back the thermal boundary from the east and get a good CCB going over SNE rather than having it happen more over interior central New England and also later which is no good for snows outside of the highest terrain.

It taps more moisture this way too coming out of the east with longer fetch and starting sooner. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it tries to yank back the thermal boundary from the east and get a good CCB going over SNE rather than having it happen more over interior central New England and also later which is no good for snows outside of the highest terrain.

It taps more moisture this way too coming out of the east with longer fetch and starting sooner. 

The 3km NAM (shockingly) doesn't seem quite as impressive at h60. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it tries to yank back the thermal boundary from the east and get a good CCB going over SNE rather than having it happen more over interior central New England and also later which is no good for snows outside of the highest terrain.

It taps more moisture this way too coming out of the east with longer fetch and starting sooner. 

gotcha...I see exactly what you're saying. 

The CCB in this scenario would be monstrous...that influx of moisture into that type of llvl cold. so hoping this pans out

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it tries to yank back the thermal boundary from the east and get a good CCB going over SNE rather than having it happen more over interior central New England and also later which is no good for snows outside of the highest terrain.

It taps more moisture this way too coming out of the east with longer fetch and starting sooner. 

Maybe this can distract you from the horrendous start to your fantasy season?

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s why we mentioned last week to proceed with caution on a wet cold week. We mentioned there’d be nice sunny days too. So far most places this week saw .05 or less with 60’s today and 70 tomorrow. And yes, let’s cake the bud laden and newly leafed out trees in heavy wet snow and tear down whatever we can before another beautiful sunny mild weekend . What a warm spring second only to 2012.

Almost summer like if you throw out the blizzard.

  • Haha 1
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