April 2021 Discussion

[WhitinsvilleWX]

Stein in the rear view mirror.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most model guidance is cooling the column pretty quickly over the interior, but whether or not it becomes a prolifc snow maker will be so dependent on exactly how that ULL tracks underneath SNE. The orientation matters....if the ULL is more elongated E-W, that is probably good for snow getting into more regions. But having it more circular or elongated N-S then it would be less favorable for snow in SNE...you'd prob see more snow out in NY State and maybe VT on that type of setup.

I was just looking at late April '87. The ULL was more elongated, but it had a real sharp piece of energy and brought the low almost NNW and put central and ern areas right in the money spot where all the forcing was on the west side of the srfc low.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0429.php

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Stein in the rear view mirror.

Don’t think so unfortunately. This may trend south or southwest 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was just looking at late April '87. The ULL was more elongated, but it had a real sharp piece of energy and brought the low almost NNW and put central and ern areas right in the money spot where all the forcing was on the west side of the srfc low.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1987/us0429.php

I you know I have trouble remembering that one...

I was living in Acton at the time, teenager ... I don't remember a big snow storm but I know the reference etc... But I remember one afternoon, we had partial leaf out - is that the one?  I think it was like the 24th or 25th ...something late in the month.  We were cold rain in the afternoon, and I remember right around as dusk was coming on the rain was over to snow at about the same rate as the light faded - I'm not sure if that's the same event though.  I remember walking up to the gym to get my 2 hours of basketball pick-up games in when I should have been doing homework ... heh, and noting the snow was sticking to the maple leafs.... etc.   But it didn't like cut power or anything and I don't recall much else about that event.

damn

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t think so unfortunately. This may trend south or southwest 

https://www.thepathway2success.com/helping-kids-with-feelings-of-anxiety-worry/

[George001]

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian:

Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40

I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30

south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20

cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

[ORH_wxman]

Euro still quite interesting. It did trend a tick north with the ULL so that will be something to watch. That's quite the firehose though for a solid 18+ hours.

[Typhoon Tip]

That posts is almost intolerably fantastic -

[George001]

The navy in particular has the 540 line se of most of the region (besides the cape) for 24 hours, with 18 hours being heavy precip. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

One more chase . C’mon 

[ma blizzard]

obligatory: 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

George forecasts are like  James If James fell and hit his head 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian:

Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40

I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30

south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20

cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

You could go higher there but a conservative 15-40” for the region is optimal at this lead time. Plenty of time to adjust up as we get closer.  

[ORH_wxman]

This is a pretty impressive look. This ULL takes its time too.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian:

Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40

I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30

south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20

cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

Some career advice for you...whatever you decide to do, DO NOT consider a career in meteorology....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

George forecasts are like  James If James fell and hit his head 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

obligatory: 

 

George sees those numbers and he thinks they pertain to feet......

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is a pretty impressive look. This ULL takes its time too.

Will , verbatim when would you say it could flip to snow around 2K Hunter area 

I figure I would need be there by 3-4 to be safe 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Will , verbatim when would you say it could flip to snow around 2K Hunter area 

I figure I would need be there by 3-4 to be safe 

Yeah prob late afternoon/early Thu evening that run it flips there.

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian:

Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40

I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30

south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20

cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

Are you for real?  Lmfao...holy smokes. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

Man, 'Rhea day here in Cambridge. 46 and drizzle. Yipee

[WhitinsvilleWX]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you for real?  Lmfao...holy smokes. 

I put my snow blower in the shed on Saturday. Maybe he's on to something.

[ORH_wxman]

12z EPS has a pretty impressive evolution.

 

 

[crossbowftw3]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you for real?  Lmfao...holy smokes. 

He’s back to smoking the good stuff. A much more plausible forecast for this juncture would be broad-brush 1-3/3-6 with up to 12 in the elevations 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are you for real?  Lmfao...holy smokes. 

so far I am up to 310 inches of George predicted snow with another 30-40 inches on Friday....no wonder why the Olympic Committee has contacted me about hosting the 2026 Winter Olympics....

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z EPS has a pretty impressive evolution.

 

 

Where would a solution like that bring accumulating snow?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z EPS has a pretty impressive evolution.

That would be the money shot out here if this was 30 days earlier. 

[HimoorWx]

58 minutes ago, George001 said:

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian:

Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40

I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30

south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20

cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

Meanwhile, back on planet Earth . . .

[WinterWolf]

28 minutes ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I put my snow blower in the shed on Saturday. Maybe he's on to something.

He’s on to acid I think.  

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where would a solution like that bring accumulating snow?

I think most of interior SNE would get accumulating snow if it played out like that. Prob significant snows for at least the Catskills/Berkshires, NW CT and prob N ORH county/Monads.....the details would determine if bigger impact snows hit the rest of the interior. Those details won't become clearer for a couple more days. The ULL could trend north or south....or weaker or stronger.