Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: My dad lives in Baldwin Mills Quebec on lake lyster.. Perfect summer weather and amazing in winter.. That would be my top choice.. Water warm up to swim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Water warm up to swim? A little cold but you're having so much fun you don't even notice.. Think it's just over 1,500 asl... Pretty amazing place for lows in the winter.. Often temps are lower than Saranac lake.. It dips down just a bit from its surroundings.. I've seen a foot of snow at his place during marginal storms then drive 20 minutes to where it's much lower and barely have anything.. I miss It and seeing my dad. Hope the border is open soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: A little cold but you're having so much fun you don't even notice.. Think it's just over 1,500 asl... Pretty amazing place for lows in the winter.. Often temps are lower than Saranac lake.. It dips down just a bit from its surroundings.. I've seen a foot of snow at his place during marginal storms then drive 20 minutes to where it's much lower and barely have anything.. I miss It and seeing my dad. Hope the border is open soon!! That sounds great. Crossing the Canadian border now is like slipping into East Germany. They will put you in Govt roach hotels for 3 days and make you pay for it while you wait for a PCR test. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 I hadn’t looked in a couple days, but that Friday cold shot moderated quite a bit. The extended isn’t looking quite as bad either. It’s like all of the cold went poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: I hadn’t looked in a couple days, but that Friday cold shot moderated quite a bit. The extended isn’t looking quite as bad either. It’s like all of the cold went poof. WTTTE. All they mentioned was payback and poopy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Looks perfect after we get Thursday out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 EPS still looks like poop to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Furnace coast to coast and up north. Looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Furnace coast to coast and up north. Looking good They'll be some DSD, but overall I see a boundary south and N to NE vectors with precip floating by now and then. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Also that is a combo of day and night. If it's maritime flow, night temps warmer....hence that outlook above. Day temps not really shown there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Weeklies sort of cancelled Spring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They'll be some DSD, but overall I see a boundary south and N to NE vectors with precip floating by now and then. Meh. This is the time of year I’ve noticed you worry so much about NE winds. Not a concern away from coast. If suns out it’s into the 60’s and cool nights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: This is the time of year I’ve noticed you worry so much about NE winds. Not a concern away from coast. If suns out it’s into the 60’s and cool nights It's a New England worry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 We all understand Tolland does downslope a bit on N to NE winds. This is a reason why you never see them get the icing and snow amounts that places NE of Tolland get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS still looks like poop to me. It’s not ideal...some shit days definitely thrown in. But I like seeing the 850s steadily >0C to eliminate the cold nights. If I get a raw 40F DZ day then so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: It’s not ideal...some shit days definitely thrown in. But I like seeing the 850s steadily >0C to eliminate the cold nights. If I get a raw 40F DZ day then so be it. Ugh..give me the cold nights over those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: It’s not ideal...some shit days definitely thrown in. But I like seeing the 850s steadily >0C to eliminate the cold nights. If I get a raw 40F DZ day then so be it. Just let Scoots downplay what overall looks like a mild dry pattern. It’s a rite of spring 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ugh..give me the cold nights over those days. I'm done with using water heaters for the birds in the morning, bringing my fig trees in at night, and my ground being frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm done with using water heaters for the birds in the morning, bringing my fig trees in at night, and my ground being frozen. Come to the tropics. We thawed and growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Looks like a good event for the Dacks coming up. Euro seems a little warm for VT. Think the GFS too cold/east again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm done with using water heaters for the birds in the morning, bringing my fig trees in at night, and my ground being frozen. 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Come to the tropics. We thawed and growing. Thawed, warmed and have been seeing night crawlers for over a week now (although not last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Also that is a combo of day and night. If it's maritime flow, night temps warmer....hence that outlook above. Day temps not really shown there. I was thinking about the DP/wv physicality anyway ...as in regardless of the marine shits or Chicago shats - That's been a very noted and tightly observable bias across the whole globe ... as in, the planetary systemic atmosphere everywhere ... that elevated anomalies are more ballast in the lows at night staying high. That is a CC consequence... up goes the thermal storage capacity of the atmosphere, that increases water vapor content through blah blah --> inexorably ..that keeps night time drop off values elevated.. I don't know or see how or why that stops, just so that a product like that can look like 3 PM warm balm ( necessarily ...) ... folks need to remember when looking at charts like that: the above aspect is in play, perpetually ... everywhere, at all times, so keep that in mind. That 'inferno' could just as well be tepid warm anomalies by day, and soothing +12 at night where it's 28 F for normal anyway, making the "inferno" a caressing 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Furnace coast to coast and up north. Looking good April look like another torch after a couple chilly days. So much for the -NAO ruining spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I just remember ORH didn’t hit 80 until like 3 weeks into July that summer which is ridiculous. I think it was the longest streak on record. They did hit 80F in the spring but then didn’t hit it again until late July. My site had one 80+ in both April and May of 2009 but didn't get there again until July 29 and it was August 14 before another one. That was our coolest JJA of 23 despite a slightly AN August. The 8 weeks June 9 thru August 3 included only 7 days w/o rain and totaled 17.54". Extending that rate to a full year would mean 114". The JJA total was 23.82", which was 10.63" AN and 4.72" more than #2. We got a few ripe cherry tomatoes that summer but no main crop fruit, as fungus slowly killed the vines from bottom to top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 11 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That was horrible. But nothing beats the 4th of July in 1992. It was 58 during the day with pure ass all day. At our (then) Gardiner home the high was 55. We matched that in New Sharon on July 8, 2009, our chilliest max for the month of July. Stratiform RA both days. I hadn’t looked in a couple days, but that Friday cold shot moderated quite a bit. The extended isn’t looking quite as bad either. It’s like all of the cold went poof. Cold and snow forecasts have been going poof for the past 6 weeks, and not just the extended - we've had far more days warmer than the day-before forecast than cooler. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Come to the tropics. We thawed and growing. Got to be a maritime valley thing. Hostas Day Lillys peeked out but thats it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Meh Weeklies schmeeklies... I wouldn't trust them, or the GEFs based teleconnectors for that matter. Best April approach is to take everything with increased incredulity and skepticism, period, for anything out in time. The teleconnectors tend to be more stable over the long haul, in terms of signals and so forth and relative reliance - more so than the operational trends, simply by weight of all those members in the consensus. The higher resolution souped-up operational versions tend to be more accurate as island solutions in a sea of plausibility - it's just the the ensemble mean ( telecon number), tends to hide the correct island from time to time. Kind of the way to look at it.. But that seems to break-down in the cruelest month. One needs to remember... circa March 20th to May 2nd's ... we pass through the time of year where Satan sits at the quantum uncertainty control panel for the weather vagaries. The UN-physical seems to happen in lieu of metaphysical events that only look reasonable, ... he, or most probably a "she" uses rational saneness to conceal their presence while come hell or high water, succeeding in their ultimate goal of soring up your butt. That's why I was attempting to assess the spring all along more so by utilizing the La Nina under-pinning ENSO ( ...which is/has proven so far irrelevant so not sure why I employed this idea...), combined with the HC. Here's the rub on the HC expansion hypothesis stuff. Albeit caused ultimately by a warming world, ironically it may be causing these mid to late spring blocking deals we've been enduring in recent years. They seemed to happen in both warm(cool) ENSO...so there's something else is doing this. I think that tendency to do that has always been the case, when winters determinant patterns terminate toward more seasonal entropy of ensuing summers ... The April stalled west Atlantic REX couplet vortex climate, under modestly identifiable positive anomalies up there... all that, is not an atypical spring dilemma. I remember some doozy miserable Aprils in the 1980s... We'd get these stalled vortexes S of NS that wobbled west and then went out to sea, then wobbled right back in 3 days later.. bringing grapple squalls that mangled aggregates before ending as light rain, and shallow CB-walled horizons. Heh...it's actually rather nostalgic putting it that way. We haven't seen 'that' flavor lately... May 2005 was similar ... Anyway, the speeding westerlies wind winters, associated with the expanded HC induced gradient increase, is making that slosh-back block response more noticeable ( perhaps...) I have a feeling ... if we were to take this into the lab, and recreate the atmosphere ( simplified) around a like -thermally driven wave guided fluid system, subject it to gradient induced velocities, then... suddenly suspend the velocities, the blocking nodes would temporarily blossom there too - as a non-linear wave result. See, one cannot look at a geopotential height anomaly products, ... happen to NOT see yellow orange and red, and think that means the HC expansion stuff is not reflecting in the system. The "warmth" has already been converted to kinetic motion - that is the velocity that we've been observing as increased(ing) over the last 20 years. The "machinery" of the atmosphere, .. on whole, in the winter, turns thermal gradient potential energy into mechanical energy of wave translations, scaffold' along by the balanced base-line raging wind speed. The anomalies of the geoptential medium won't show this if at point X it is only 3 dm taller than normal - insidiously subtle - while the wind passing through that location is ludicrous speed. Anyway, the La Nina spring has a longer termed correlation ( that probably is obliterated by the HC .. seems so - ) for warmer than normal springs. But it seems this terminating block blossoming, ephemeral as it may be, is winning... Hopefully we can "get lucky" and end up in a COL between pinned vortexes and bootleg nape and warmth that way. I just hate cold after March 20... it challenges my patients... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 4 hours ago, dendrite said: I hadn’t looked in a couple days, but that Friday cold shot moderated quite a bit. The extended isn’t looking quite as bad either. It’s like all of the cold went poof. I've been chirping about the operational GFS ... seeming to back off the amount of rhea whirl impact for a couple of days - been a persistent trend to do so. Now, the actual telecon layout has essentially halved the magnitude of the previous cold hemispheric signal they were carrying on with over the last two night's worth of computations. The AO's mean looks to only kiss neutral SD, where as prior all members were down to -2 SD ... and this same sort of correction has taken place in the NAO handling, too. Not sure what that will mean for us over the eastern Lakes/SE Canada and NE... upper M/A regions per se, but at least the operational GFS is getting - perhaps - some modest support from the polar index cluster. PNA is still correcting from -2 or -3 to neutral toward week two, which could mean anything really ... In January, that's enough correction in that index to send something across N/A ... not sure about April. All the while, the flow appeals to me to be relaxing - almost like the seasonal flash over the hemisphere that does seem to happen at some critical time in the models every spring. We seem to lose 2 or 3 ... maybe 4 isohypses in the full hemispheric integration from subtropics to 70 N ... by D10. It's like Roulettes ... where ever we are when the gradient music stops, we're stuck with it at the blazing speed of residual decay rates - hopefully, we're not taking three weeks to spin down some west Atlantic piece of shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 Valid 12z Friday. Definite GFS cold bias getting washed away with time. Although it actually looks more impressive in the Mid Atl...trough axis trending west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Got to be a maritime valley thing. Hostas Day Lillys peeked out but thats it Almost no green up here yet outside of some lawns and some random crocus etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now