April 2021 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs is wet too. It’s over. 

Much different than Euro. Euro gins up this massive fantasy coastal whereas GFS is more ULL and showers . It keeps the coastal and good rains way south.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Yup.  If about 1/2" in 16 days is "wet".

We don’t forecast for NNE but we do hope you get in on it. 

[kdxken]

Okay, this is spring.

[CoastalWx]

Interior snow?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Interior snow?

Am I guaranteed a good soaking this week to drop fert today ? I need a 100% guarantee 

[WinterWolf]

9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

They don't actually truly hibernate, just lazily rest until the food gets easier to forage.

Since when? Never heard that before.  Are you just talking about black bears? Grizzlies certainly hibernate.  
 

Ironically, I Saw a nice black bear yesterday morning  cross right in front of my truck as I was pulling into a local park here in town. Got a few decent pictures of him. 

[moneypitmike]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

For Friday and Saturday. Less than 10 days.

I thought it was a f240 map.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Since when? Never heard that before.  Are you just talking about black bears? Grizzlies certainly hibernate.  
 

Ironically, I Saw a nice black bear yesterday morning  cross right in front of my truck as I was pulling into a local park here in town. Got a few decent pictures of him. 

But did you know that bears are not truly hibernating? In fact, no large mammal actually hibernates. While we commonly refer to a bear's winter repose as hibernation, it is actually a process called torpor.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Am I guaranteed a good soaking this week to drop fert today ? I need a 100% guarantee 

I’m waiting. Why now? I’d wait until Thursday.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I thought it was a f240 map.

Oh that’s a total accumulation map. I meant first chance Friday.

[ineedsnow]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Interior snow?

We pray! Tim Kelley just mentioned it on Twitter.. I think some could pull it off.. Definitely back to my kind of weather for awhile though.. Hope it last all summer!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m waiting. Why now? I’d wait until Thursday.

Good point. Since every rain event falls apart. Better wait and see how this next one later in the week does. May have to wait till it’s actually falling to ensure 

[Typhoon Tip]

What I'm looking at is very good agreement among the operational runs from 00z.   Euro, GFS ..G"JUNK"  UKMET all trundle a 'bowling ball' under our latitude ( dangerous ) toward the end of the week. 

In fairness, all that needs is an 850 insert of -1 C and the column would collapse, just as much as if cold does not inject in optimal timing ...the vortex spins by at mid levels with comparatively less surface realization - that's how these things work in spring. The instability in the lower troposphere gets blunted and rotted much faster, so an ominous series of H500 charts end up paltry at the surface.  But, when cold avails to them...look out!   High PWAT blue snow can strike. 

We should caution not to be beguiled for having gotten lucky during these first 10 days of the month.  Do not forget our climate identity in this geographic - not that anyone is, just sayn'.  We've seen enough snow events in mid April.  Forget snow .. we should at minimum count on putrescent weather conditions in that look.   You know, having it be occasionally balmy to warm, then, dosing putrescence after the fact, does fit right in with the last 10 years worth of f'ed-up springs.  Why break trend now. 

haha, after all this... I predict the Keven wakes up next Saturday morning with blue tinted light at dawn. Glops and slops and splats from trees and eaves to the 4" of 5::1 on the ground.

Kidding but we'll see..  Forget that though, it appears the next 10 days are not good for nice weather enthusiasts. But, at least there is increased potential for substantive rainfall - some seem to not "want" that. But, taking some intellectual responsibility and acting lucid for a moment, the probability is increased. With the operational trends landing on top of those vestigial telecon index modes, and appearing to agree - pretty amazing in mid April... tough to argue. 

We'll see what comes of it.. of which could fall as 'farmer's gold,' too.  It may not absolutely terrible at all times, but several intervals

 

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

But did you know that bears are not truly hibernating? In fact, no large mammal actually hibernates. While we commonly refer to a bear's winter repose as hibernation, it is actually a process called torpor.

Thanks for the info. 
But I’m thinking Canadian and Alaskan browns/Grizzlies/Kodiaks do more of a hibernation type of thing...??? Due to the incredibly harsh/long winters.... No? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Good point. Since every rain event falls apart. Better wait and see how this next one later in the week does. May have to wait till it’s actually falling to ensure 

The dry obsession from that David guy has gotten into your head. 

[crossbowftw3]

Quick examination of models tells me that any snow would need to be falling at high rates to offset the 33-34 degree temperatures that may be present this weekend, with the only factor working in this thing’s favor is that it could fall at night.

 

Conclusion: we should see things even out as the week progresses; lower elevations maybe see up to 4” of slop while higher elevations see more.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just my take.. but I’d plan on less gloom and doom than is being forecast here. Couple crappy days.. couple with sun and 60 ish. Snow chances in SNE nil. Hopefully some wetting rain late week 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just my take.. but I’d plan on less gloom and doom than is being forecast here. Couple crappy days.. couple with sun and 60 ish. Snow chances in SNE nil. Hopefully some wetting rain late week 

I don't disagree ... " It may not absolutely terrible at all times, but several intervals "

I think one needs to plan on something like that progression ...and then if things break better ( depending on one's wants and wishes...heh), you'll be pleasantly surprised. 

The NAO being negative and the PNA actively rising is never good for fair weather enthusiasts as a base-line/ canvas probability.  It just isn't. 

Welcome to April man

[jbenedet]

The Thursday/Friday wintry appeal is a northern mid Atlantic and Upstate NY story. Everyone talking persistence but forgetting this aspect of it? 

SNE low levels flooded with April Atlantic air...

At the same time, Bangor ME will be near 60...

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

The door just moved through here. Not much wind , no screens slammed shut , but temp dropping from 60 early high and low clouds with sun peeks 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The door just moved through here. Not much wind , no screens slammed shut , but temp dropping from 60 early high and low clouds with sun peeks 

We door slammed like Tippy knocking on the door of a girl he met on Tinder.

[HoarfrostHubb]

47F here with fog.  Doored 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We door slammed like Tippy knocking on the door of a girl he met on Tinder.

 Which any dude that does and gets 'er home, probably reaches down and oops!   noodle and meatballs with that f'n sketchy din of ill-reputable membership  -  lol...

I wouldn't go anywhere near that shit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The door just moved through here. Not much wind , no screens slammed shut , but temp dropping from 60 early high and low clouds with sun peeks 

This thing didn't really come through here with a wind jolt, either ... It's an ooze by deal -

This BD seems to almost be melded into the larger synoptic backing deep layer flow associated with that slow moving trough trying desperately to get squeezed under our latitude. It can't go through the Lakes transit into western Ontario ... so it ends up shearing and going under - taking the next 36 to 48 hours of our lives to do it...

But, in doing so, the deep layer tries to turn E anyway...

The 'screen door' slam, flag snapping gust of wind type usually comes in more off smaller scaled synoptics. A trough skirting SE out of Quebec, and the NVA behind in ( downward vertical motion..) imparts a mass discontinuity with rising PP over the cold GOM ...and when the air mass is warm and buoyand over the interior coastal plain of Maine to CT ... guess where that air mass goes ?  Under the buoyant air - it starts rolling and tumbling SW to 'fill it in'...kind of like opening a freezer door and seeing the cold air flow across the floor - just doing it at the scale of E. New England. 

Anyway, in the strictest sense this is sort of a hybrid between that and just in general backing deep layer flow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

47F here with fog.  Doored 

Wow, still 58° here with occasional peeks of sun

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wow, still 58° here with occasional peeks of sun

You're not too far W. of me along Rt poopy ...

We dawned classic overnight BD'ed with slate gray 48 misery mist here... but, we've cleared...and in Ayer we are definitely on the cold side of the BD air mass boundary - but we are still making a run at 60 because that hot high one in the sky is doing what it can to offset.   But it won't last .. . hi res vis loop shows this is a fortuitous wedge of clearing between the post boundary band, and a new strata ceiling making en roads from the E ..https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Should be back to slate sky here in a hour or so if that doesn't start eroding back ...

[NorEastermass128]

44F dark and breezy. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

47F here with fog.  Doored 

Bout the same here. 51, damp, raw.

[Typhoon Tip]

58 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

44F dark and breezy. 

Oh ... I used to live in Rockport ... years and years ago... but, by and large, that doesn't change. 

It has its charm out there on the tip of the N. Atlantic dip stick known as Cape Ann.  You are about in the 90th percentile engulfed in the Labrador Gordon Fisherman wind burned cheek, yet stiff knuckled cold marine climate out there.  You can just smell the cold ocean - and it is different than the oceanic aroma of Va Beach or San Diego.  I was on the beaches of the Pac side of the Bay Area last June, and that same cold ocean smell was evidence. It's interesting - albeit probably an observation that only a dork like me would hone into..heh.

But it's a way of life. If one sans any hope of smelling summer fields and fair ground hot dogs crossing the bridge by the Pogey fish refinery ... and completely inures themselves to boat shoes by summer, parka by winter ... harbor bell culture, they'll do just fine.

One thing I miss is what I've called 'sailor's spirit' in the past.  It's when the marine layer moves inland on sunny days in the spring and summer...and the leading edge of the fog bank is translucent shrouds that look like apparitions with the sun shining through them.  It's a cool aspect.  Also, in the winter ... those 0 cryo air masses and the morning sun cuts through the pedestrian steam dogs as they wonder and dance to and fro across the surface of harbor.  It's an amazing spectacle if you have the option to head back in for a cocoa and a scone. 

[PhineasC]

54 and sunny in Randolph.