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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We kinda luck out on the euro op and the end result looks like something similar to this week with the ULL offshore and warming trend toward the weekend. But I can see how it could verify a lot cooler/wetter. The ULL over the Great Lakes and the one east of us slow way down and then the Lakes one gets Mr. Fujied to our south around the one east of us. We get a few days of shortwave ridging and then dodge the other bullet to our south. Odds probably say it trends toward a less desirable solution, but we hope and pray.

Can’t really lock anything in other than to go with persistence and figure things will break better than the gloom and doomers. Prob a couple sub par days in 50’s with scattered showers and a couple that end up with some and 60’s. Not great, not awful .. manageable 

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

We kinda luck out on the euro op and the end result looks like something similar to this week with the ULL offshore and warming trend toward the weekend. But I can see how it could verify a lot cooler/wetter. The ULL over the Great Lakes and the one east of us slow way down and then the Lakes one gets Mr. Fujied to our south around the one east of us. We get a few days of shortwave ridging and then dodge the other bullet to our south. Odds probably say it trends toward a less desirable solution, but we hope and pray.

The blocking this winter into spring has been without any cold air really so if it’s not clouds and rain, it’s warm. But the Euro sends down a cold shot once the block dissipates...we’ll see. 

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The blocking this winter into spring has been without any cold air really so if it’s not clouds and rain, it’s warm. But the Euro sends down a cold shot once the block dissipates...we’ll see. 

Four rounds in and you couldn't ask for better early season conditions. 18th hole a New England CC today.

 

ne.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So 6 straight days of mostly cloudy with 3 days of rain on that graphic is now a nice week, noted

Gotta stop looking at Qpf. The takeaway is the push SW of stronger HP and horrific moisture transport. Could be mostly cloudy Sunday if trends continue

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very worrisome that even strong blocking isn't leading to cooler weather.

I swear if we ever get a strong Bermuda High ridge we're shattering monthly records.

Tough to get a lot of cold weather with blocking and sunshine. We haven’t had the true blocking To deliver that. Will come next week. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Tough to get a lot of cold weather with blocking and sunshine. We haven’t had the true blocking To deliver that. Will come next week. 

It hasn't even been seasonable. Temps are soaring to mid May levels multiple days in a row. 

Even with true blocking temps may still average near normal if not above if enough sun gets in. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It hasn't even been seasonable. Temps are soaring to mid May levels multiple days in a row. 

Even with true blocking temps may still average near normal if not above if enough sun gets in. 

The flow is mild in the east. That will all change. 

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I think part of the problem is that we have been looking at gloom and doom and dour synoptic layouts on these operational models in the deep mid/extended range for three weeks and none of it has actually materialized yet or verified very well.

But as far as the GEFs are concerned… The Tele con layout for the cold stormy pattern wasn’t really supposed to be here until the mid part of the month - granted that’s getting closer

The Euro trying to get cute about it now so we’ll see. 

Seems like it’s a bit of a race between seasonal change and the last hurrah of winter with that index layout-which one is going to win mid month 50-50 chance

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47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very worrisome that even strong blocking isn't leading to cooler weather. The best we'll do is seasonable.

I swear if we ever get a strong Bermuda High ridge we're shattering monthly records.

Nothing worrisome....you just calm your nerves, it will get cold again next winter season.  Who needs cold now? We take these perfect days, and enjoy.  No worries at all. Last Friday was 30 degrees here with flurries wind and sun, don’t need anymore of that BS. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very worrisome that even strong blocking isn't leading to cooler weather. The best we'll do is seasonable.

I swear if we ever get a strong Bermuda High ridge we're shattering monthly records.

“Worrisome” - in what way exactly ?

Technically ... it has been colder - there’s an aspect of relativity in play. Because without the blocking we might’ve been 80. 

Nina springs are typically warmer than normal… And they don’t actually, typically feature blocking like this - It’s a bit of an anomaly, relative (also) to that climatology  

The blocking is most likely related to a sudden abandoning of the higher velocity jet anomalies that we had all winter long and when that suddenly relaxed we pass through an interval where residual latent heat delivery to upper latitude will cause blocking nores to flare off. This happened similarly across the last five Springs ... last year claimed much of May with snow flurries at times.  

It really seems to me like we are super imposing a blocking episode over the top of the warmer than normal hemisphere (mid latitude’s ) and this is kind of what we get… We’ve had North flow here for the past four days not much to show for it except seasonality give or take…  

 

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