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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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I guess folks need the modeled nice day(s) to time ... landing on an actual weekend day ... otherwise not worth mentioning.  LOL.  Yeah, can't say I blame anyone that hasn't 'cashed in' on the Pandemic WFH movements and was stuck still commuting to the inspired mise se science of florescent lighting, the murmur of a printer, and some distant barely audible conversation as the only aspects that break into silent rage of getting in a deliverable on time.  For those of us that have been working at home ... it's going to be windows open and birds arguing over who gets the hen.

Today, tomorrow and Friday ... at least west and N of I-95, these should all have window open afternoons.  They are all top 20, maybe top 10 contender gems Fri/Sat.  Saturday does look like MEX MOS is like dabatbase brain numbed and horrible. That sun and those synoptics on top of one another will generate some heat in the sheets for us.  76 F with light offshore wind, and even a DPs into the lower 50s too...etc.  

Next week toward mid month ?  yikes -
The GEF -based PNA has been flagged for 10 days with stalwart consistency to rise from -2 to +2 SD while the NAO nadirs ... that's a large telecon converged signal.  Either one solo would lend ... but in tandem that starts stacking the odds.  It's also a duet song and dance we never once observed spanning the last 4 months when in principle we really wanted to. It is what it is. 

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I've been saying along that seasonal modulation/ .. damping is ongoing, and is an offset factor.  It may keep whatever takes place on the palled side.  However, we have celebrated(suffered) bigger winter events during April 15 to May 1 - duh.. It's not a matter of 'can.'  It's a matter of diminishing return rate, but eventually they do occur. 

I've looked over some of the bigger April events in history.  A common denominator/ .. behavior that took place in all: an inject of cold took place closer to the actual 'main' cyclogenesis while it was developing - I think crucial timing sort of 'synergistically' favored the colder results.  You know?  'more than the sum of the cold parts' caused a result that over performs..  I suspect these yore and lore jobs got some of that advantage.  ..interesting. 

But most important, that sort of delicate timing cannot really be resolve at D7-10 range ... About all we can do is rely upon the layout to detect whether probability is situated to do so - if past could ever serve as any sort of model.  Having these in tandem as the ides of April are nearing, is just such a layout in my mind.  If I had been monitoring this look back in March I would have a thread going for early risk assessment as it is. 

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15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I can't tell you how much I am enjoying the daily debate between those who think it will be warn and dry and those who think it will be cool and wet....it's sort of like Baylor vs Gonzaga, sooner or later one side will win in a blowout.......

Definitely should be talking about sports like you do in every weather thread.

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22 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I can't tell you how much I am enjoying the daily debate between those who think it will be warn and dry and those who think it will be cool and wet....it's sort of like Baylor vs Gonzaga, sooner or later one side will win in a blowout.......

 

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13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Does anyone know what the weather is going to be like at Fenway today?

Seems pretty uniform in every direction - what you see is what you'lll get.

Being proximal to the Bay ... they may be chillier than out in metrowest and further ... seabreeze.   Probably upper 50s low 60s

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We like the Steins with the shunts and the bumps. Shunts and the bumps 

 

So far you are winning the game of dry vs wet. You are ahead early on the judges cards but there are several more rounds of high level sparring to be done. To use baseball parlance I can see the debate of dry vs wet going into extra innings. ...to use basketball parlance you may be cutting down the net once the outcome has been determined. 

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Already starting to see a few early trees leaf out at Yale, particularly those immediately adjacent to buildings that get a lot of reflected light.

I travel all over the state but mostly work in southwest CT. The Stamford/Greenwich area is weeks ahead of most of the state. Its like full on leaf out in some parts down there. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Saturday looks great. Then nasty back door through Sunday morning. This will push into mid Atlantic subsequent days. Better weather in subforum further north/east, Monday through Wednesday. 

And I think that is unavoidable given the evolution in the total blend of the technological acumen - heh...

I mean ...that blocking node that evolves over NE QUE and the western Maritime region pretty much WILL send a BD reality check to Atlantic Georgia ...anyone with a modicum of realistic perspective would think -

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