April 2021 Discussion

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pretty interesting. The indicies don’t always tell the tale of end results. Other than a day or .. this has been a great month with many warm days.. and even a snowstorm mixed in

Exactly...this is why structure and placement of the anomalies are way more important than an index itself. That's why you can't just make a (medium-long range) forecast just based on the state of an index or ENSO alone. For example, here is a composite of DJF temperature anomalies for La Nina's. The last image below gives you an "average" of them all...but sometimes going just based on average can be extremely misleading. 

 

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Good healthy 2/3rds of an inch of rain past 24 hours.  Nice steady soaking.  Now we take a break before another round of 0.50-1.00 moves in this evening and tonight.

We are going to explode green after these couple rainy days.  Can already see it in the fields and grass, the color has stepped up to a full spring green.  Need leaves though.  The buds look like they may want to go soon.  

Really noticed the greening this morning.  I had to drop  my son off at school and then stop down at the vets to pick up some tick stuff for the dog and the lawns really seemed to accelerate the green up process, even since yesterday.  The misery mist that was falling does tend to make stuff look extra lush though.

[kdxken]

Hopefully the rain will break this heat.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some flakes for the Massif?

60 Saturday afternoon 

[Damage In Tolland]

There are already HWW up to our SW. You’d hope BOX doesn’t drop the ball like the last one and the snowstorm that didn’t even have an SPS while 6-10” fell

[weatherwiz]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn hope modeling is way wrong next week.  Another high wind warning coming Friday as well. Definitely not what we want for chill. Bring back yesterday please 

May see scattered power outages tomorrow...pretty long duration period of high winds too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully the rain will break this heat.

It put out the fire in my back woods. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

60 Saturday afternoon 

And?   Be interesting if some mangled flakes are flying around in the high ground in the morning.

[weatherwiz]

Actually looks like there could be some pretty intense snow squalls tomorrow night...actually wouldn't even be surprised to see some areas of accumulation possible (Green Mountains into the Berkshires, ORH hills, Hills of CT). Could even see some decent LES across parts of NY. Maybe thunder too...pretty unstable aloft

[BrianW]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That drought has been locked in those areas it seems for years. From New Haven down through SW CT has never been remotely near any drought condition in a long time. I'm at almost 5 inches of rain in the last 30 days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, BrianW said:

That drought has been locked in those areas it seems for years. From New Haven down through SW CT has never been remotely near any drought condition in a long time. I'm at almost 5 inches of rain in the last 30 days. 

You guys had all that snow and high qpf. Last summer you guys had all those t storms. While rest of area much more hit/ miss

[Typhoon Tip]

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

On April 16-18 BDL had highs of 90/95/92.   26 years earlier April 17-19 had 92/95/96.  I think those are the only April heat waves there.

Uh... yeeeeah - I wasn't referring to a heat context ?

I may not have my date right - Maybe it was 2001... But, I was speaking in deference to a cold coastal on May 18 that brought noodles and cat paws to Waltham, at 39 F in sheets/wind...while 1.5" of slushy car top accumulations to the Worcester area. 

At the time of Jerry and my's exchange, yesterday, ...the GFS had just such a look to it's D10 charts.  Tongue-in-cheek to mention, but he was surmising that with yesterday's appeal ... it was as though we had really turned a seasonal change, caboosing it with 'though we can't be certain'

 

[weatherwiz]

Question on something. From my understanding I think MOS doesn't record sky cover above like 12,000 feet. Does NBM do so? 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna get more wet... right where it's apparently needed.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gonna get more wet... right where it's apparently needed.

Enjoy!

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Question on something. From my understanding I think MOS doesn't work record sky cover above like 12,000 feet. Does NBM do so? 

I've gotten this distinct impression the vaster overwhelming number of times, too yeah.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I've gotten this distinct impression the vaster overwhelming number of times, yeah.

MOS sucks...it's a complete piece of garbage. I have been using NBM more and even that seems to be kinda trash. Don't get me wrong...MOS/NBM are very good in some areas and at some locations but it's trash...particularly across the center of the country and the Northeast...especially in certain pattern types. I know MOS does not handle anomalous patterns well or seasons of transition but it's a complete embarrassment. I have no clue how some can just rip/read MOS and be happy at the end of the day.

[Damage In Tolland]

Bet folks didn’t didn’t realize this . Not good heading into summer says . Let’s hope tonight works out

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Uh... yeeeeah - I wasn't referring to a heat context ?

I may not have my date right - Maybe it was 2001... But, I was speaking in deference to a cold coastal on May 18 that brought noodles and cat paws to Waltham, at 39 F in sheets/wind...while 1.5" of slushy car top accumulations to the Worcester area. 

At the time of Jerry and my's exchange, yesterday, ...the GFS had just such a look to it's D10 charts.  Tongue-in-cheek to mention, but he was surmising that with yesterday's appeal ... it was as though we had really turned a seasonal change, caboosing it with 'though we can't be certain'

 

My bad - I was thinking April not May, and 2002 was the correct year for mid-May snow - 18th in SNE, 13th around here.  I think IZG hit 90 early that month then got 2" SN a week or so later.

Edit:  0.09" from the first wave, trying to keep the house from washing away.

[dendrite]

Wet flag warnings today

[Bostonseminole]

next week going down hill it seems

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Blustery conditions overnight Friday into early Saturday behind a
  strong cold front. Lingering showers overnight could change into
  snow showers for parts of the high terrain.
* Warming trend begins late Saturday and continues into early next
  week. However, there is considerable uncertainty with how warm we
  can get on Monday.
* Turning cooler mid week with potential for unsettled weather but
  forecast confidence is low this far out.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wet flag warnings today

Enjoy your white out squalls Friday night 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My bad - I was thinking April not May, and 2002 was the correct year for mid-May snow - 18th in SNE, 13th around here.  I think IZG hit 90 early that month then got 2" SN a week or so later.

Edit:  0.09" from the first wave, trying to keep the house from washing away.

I think that was a the year of that super hot July 4th weekend too.  I attended a July 4th party ... people matriculating in started mid afternoon ... and by 3 or so, were taking turns laying down on floors to cool off, in between going back out to the patio to regale in shifts... 103 on the home station.  And I think Logan was high 99 chilly degrees under an obscuring cirrus plume. 

2017 had that Tsar Bomba ridge from Hades ...but interestingly - little known fact because no one really knows to recall...-  even though the geopotential medium verified the ridge reasonably well, we didn't really stuff it with heat as big as it could have been supporting.  As it were ...it was hot, real hot to be fair.  But just not as hot as a 606 dm closed height contour and surrounding instructive hemispheric dominance could have been.  I think I capped out on that at 96/74 here in Ayer which is plenty torrid and dangerous enough for ditch digger work.

The reason for that is that the pattern really lacked a SW source getting cough up into it.  That's why comparatively lower geopotential medium heat domes have sported 101s at Logan on the gentle WNW dragon fart breezes.  It's because there was a Sonoran release of plateau heat that tumbled out into the plains and associated, a 850 mb super kinetically charged air mass,...and if there is a little gradient at all it mixes into the BL lapse rates and you end up with sfc temp plugged into an 800 mb adiabat ...and if you take a 18 C 800 mb Poissonian proper out of that you're filling ERs ...  We missed that factor in the 2017 July 4 historic ridge - a distinction not really made aware because it was damn hot enough.  Probably you're gonna get that hot one way or the other when heights are so high the Space Shuttle has to goose orbit or it's belly my tickle the top...lol...  Just acme cartooning the sentiment but you get the point.

Anyway, I've noted that we here in the eastern U.S. have been lucky with the frequency of "killer heat" waves, a frequency that has been on the rise ... France into the lower Urals... sometimes western Russian, even lower Siberia ...  Australia... to name a few, have out paced us by a factor of 3 - in fact, I think of only one heat wave that really rivals what they've experience abroad, and it was that 2012 one that was broken by that historic Drechio in the mid Atlantic.  That heat wave missed us, here...   Yet we've been above normal like everywhere else in our own variant of CC...global warming's footprint. It's just been maintenance above normal. I begin to wonder if New England ever can sustain a Franceonian heat wave.   2017 - to me - suggests it can..? if a SW heat ejection was tangled up in that ordeal, look out!

Heat would finally resonate as just as important as cold and blizzard, hurricanes tornadoes and floods.   I'm tempted to lie and suggest per capital, heat has killed more than all these others combined, yet it seems oddly "back burner" as a popular aspect.

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wet flag warnings today

LOL - right

You know ... I was thinking about this.  It doesn't "seem" like a drought has ever been under foot in New England over the last 18 months. 

And to be faIr, that U.S. DM chart is rather benign looking to me.  Moderate this or that - c'mon.   We all know and joke, that's  but a training MCS or coastal rainer from being largely a nothing issue.

That said, how much relativity is involved with the U.S. DM's determination?  I'd love to take a ranked staff member out for a candid cup of coffee and hear about it.  I mean, if it's a 10 year deficit, we could get 18 inches of rain in a hurricane and denude all of SNE off the planetary surface with hydro scouring destruction ...and it'd still be a 10 year deficit crippling drought. Right -

How does that work.   How do they connect the ends of this shit when ( more realistically an exmample: ) you have so-dubbed moderate drought on going, and you get a 4" overnight convective bomb and baseball fields and swing sets under nearby stream flooding and warnings.  SO you have flood warnings and drought warning concurrently - got it.  LOL

[kdxken]

46 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

next week going down hill it seems

 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* Blustery conditions overnight Friday into early Saturday behind a
  strong cold front. Lingering showers overnight could change into
  snow showers for parts of the high terrain.
* Warming trend begins late Saturday and continues into early next
  week. However, there is considerable uncertainty with how warm we
  can get on Monday.
* Turning cooler mid week with potential for unsettled weather but
  forecast confidence is low this far out.

Nah, endless Summer.

[Chrisrotary12]

Pope kicking the stein's ass this week. We wet. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

And?   Be interesting if some mangled flakes are flying around in the high ground in the morning.

 

[Torch Tiger]

Welcome rain, want

[Ginx snewx]

Not synoptic?