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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No rain . No surprise . Convective not synoptic 

This has been a truly warm spring. Best since 2012.

Can anyone let us know if Pope drops in here today. I’ll let him know the temps in the warm sector in CT 

He’s visiting Tolland today.

DED1DAAB-0EC5-490A-B11B-6A7D876BA0FF.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No rain . No surprise . Convective not synoptic 

This has been a truly warm spring. Best since 2012.

Can anyone let us know if Pope drops in here today. I’ll let him know the temps in the warm sector in CT 

15th best we showed you the stats but you don't care. Anecdotal Kev

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No rain . No surprise . Convective not synoptic 

This has been a truly warm spring. Best since 2012.

Can anyone let us know if Pope drops in here today. I’ll let him know the temps in the warm sector in CT 

Kevin in Troll-land:


Sunday: “Days and days of high dews and heat incoming folks.”


Monday: “85F on Wednesday”

Tuesday: “80F on Wednesday”

Wednesday: “Warm sector today”

:clown:

Getting there buddy...

 

...And the rest of the week Kevin? :lol:

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No rain . No surprise . Convective not synoptic 

This has been a truly warm spring. Best since 2012.

Can anyone let us know if Pope drops in here today. I’ll let him know the temps in the warm sector in CT 

A disturbance riding along a warm front isn't synoptic? Okey dokey

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’ll be interesting to see if he acknowledges his errors or disappears like the snowstorm forecast 

Coming from zero-accountability, zero-credibility guy.
 

At least we can zero in on on a few terrible forecasts from me.

 

And you? Where do we start.? 

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41 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Kevin in Troll-land:


Sunday: “Days and days of high dews and heat incoming folks.”


Monday: “85F on Wednesday”

Tuesday: “80F on Wednesday”

Wednesday: “Warm sector today”

:clown:

Getting there buddy...

 

...And the rest of the week Kevin? :lol:

"Kevin in Troll-land: "  LOLZ

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50 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Coming from zero-accountability, zero-credibility guy.
 

At least we can zero in on on a few terrible forecasts from me.

 

And you? Where do we start.? 

Hey man..can you go back and give a write up of what went wrong in your thought process/ forecast for the big snowstorm where you had no snow for HFD to BOS on north? It would be a great learning experience for you I believe.. and would help us to see what happened.

Thanks!

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The cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass. In 
fact, any lingering showers late Fri night into early Sat morning 
could transition into snow showers, particularly over the high 
terrain. Available global and ensemble guidance has trended colder, 
with 850mb temperatures between -2 to -4C late Fri night into Sat. 
In fact, this is around the 10th percentile for 850mb temperatures 
for our area according to NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness 
Table. The other aspect for Friday into Friday night will be the 
gusty northwest winds behind the cold front. With steepening mid to 
low level lapse rates thanks to a -25C cold pool at 500mb, expect 
strong winds to mix down to the surface. Wind headlines may 
eventually be needed for at least parts of the region, particularly 
the higher elevation for gusts above 40 kt. 

Overall, May could come in like a lion, with blustery conditions and 
possibly flakes in the forecast.
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Sat loop suggests we clear even in the E ...~ S of a EEN-ASH type axis.  But I suspect with high hot sun boiling the llv moisture left in place, and some modest positive shear in the area...if that band between the Pike and Rt 2 does get appreciable solar skies may destruct in convection ... In fact, that may be the case anywhere the sun cleaves through or continues to shine.  Regional LIs are -2 or -3 ...and the sounding isn't really capped.  Triggers may be lacking ...

I'm noticing that even tho band between the decaying mid level deck in C-NE and the area N of NYC resides on the cool side of the warm/stationary front, the wind is light and not showing a lot of impetus in moving from E to W. Typical BD mechanics are not really part of this. Modest positive anomalies at 850s lurk well N ...indicating this air mass is shallow under an oblique warm frontal slope.  -marine contamination within shore hauls of the eastern coast ..10 clicks inland maybe.    There really isn't very much higher surface pressure N of Maine doing the more typical damming and BD chilly low level jet.  That changes the map a little on whether those CT zones can warm up significantly ... and it may also allow of more sfc heating realization between the Pike and Rt 2 as well. 

Logan may be 54 F while it's 64 F as near as protected nooks up Arlington Heights, ...and 74 out near FIT...  84 at HFD/BDL   *IF* the present sat trends hold.  Obviously more convective sequencing would limit

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