April 2021 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh ...we'll probably fade into summer in a rain deficit to some degree but nothing too drastic.  

Parsed out over say 10 years, it'll just absorb into whatever that background longer -termed signal is, and won't ultimately matter - we just don't desiccate the landscape here like they do in west Texas or California ... To get that kind of impact here would require a much longer return rate ... probably on the order of Millennial in time scales or something... 

Just from common experience and exposure to planetary sciences et al ... it seems we can find deep coring samples far more revealing of flood events than the other way.  

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

It’s been flurries all day here and now steady light snow at mi casa. 

[rimetree]

Last flakes today until next winter? Got down to 31F here this morning. Taking the week off next week for daughter's school vaca. Hoping for some early summer conditions to help break our collective cabin fever.

[dendrite]

Multiple whiteouts in the past hour. Awesome snow growth too...big dendritic aggregates and not the wet type. Just huge feathers clumped together. 

It’s mostly melting on contact though. Dropped down to 31.5° at the height of it. More wintry day than half of the days in actual winter. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Multiple whiteouts in the past hour. Awesome snow growth too...big dendritic aggregates and not the wet type. Just huge feathers clumped together. 

It’s mostly melting on contact though. Dropped down to 31.5° at the height of it. More wintry day than half of the days in actual winter. 

I was discussing last year's couple of May events that were similar to this - though not quite as cold by virtue - most likely - of being 2 or 3 weeks later in the solar calendar.  ..blah blah.

But I was doing so under the auspices of it being part of this weird "N/A synoptic flow folding" tendency we're seeing more and more of during transition seasons

    ....during this phase of CC but eh hm...

Anyway, I put today's event right in with those.  It occurs to me, this is excessive by 850 mb thermal layout and 500 mb thickness - relative to April 22nd, it's late enough and more so fits into that general argument for me.

I'm just amazed seeing the NAM's MET fire to 70+ for Saturday ...  this isn't Boulder ...  Therein, it's not just these cold CAA late spring events - it's also the phenomenal yawing between air mass types, too.   Last year we suffered snow flurry and squally air snow in May and then it 96 at BTV 2 weeks later...

[Cold Miser]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In any case, what a seasonal flash over the hemisphere across that 00z technology that I can find.

...I think a lot of these sites, regardless of their 'free-ness' are owned and coded by morons.

I don't care what their personal espoused and/or publicly recognized Meteorological acumen really is - or if either is even meritus ... their product suites suck giant donkey balls.

TT is an idiot.  That guy/gal does not get how to do cross guidance model comparisons, which is a hugely essential concept and practice in deterministic weather forecasting - because his images force the viewer to always look at the latest hourly release - which f*s up any continuity when going back and forth.  It's stupid shit like that... Or the cut-away graphics with no global perspectives? ...  Why doesn't that site show more of the upstream and down stream hemisphere ? - it shows just the "entire Cosmos" of the U.S., because of course there's no world of kinematic mechanics going on that ultimately determines the self-centered space of the U.S., huh? 

It either shows:  A, a defined lack of integral synoptic reasoning and understanding; or B,  the product's source is free, so he/she renders what the free source gives... But, seeing as the product suite overall trips you up by sending you to the most recent panel no matter what - which is boneheaded and childish and demos he/she doesn't get continuity fundamentals .. - I wonder if these are all cut-aways and tossing out the most important pieces.

It's not just TT ... other sites do stupid stuff like that. 

What constitutes as "giant"? Are we talking about balls being compared to human sized balls, or other donkeys?  If the later then do other donkeys feel inadequate. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What constitutes as "giant"? Are we talking about balls being compared to human sized balls, or other donkeys?  If the later then do other donkeys feel inadequate. 

I know I do - heh

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, I don't think I've ever seen MEX go 18 over climatology on a day 7.5 ...

 

KFIT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/22/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  33  59| 41  69| 48  56| 42  59| 41  69| 47  76| 50  79| 55 38 61

And honestly just looking over the synoptics on this 12z guidance it's understandable relative to that look, but that's also got to be really stressing against the climate normalization - I mean is that still part of the MOS calculation?   That could 25 over by day, and 15 or more by night when the time actually comes... We've been gettng those kind of breaks from reality over recent years too.

It's harder to get warm departures that high as the summer gets into it tho.  Can you imagine being 25+ on July 20th ?   you'd be a 115 in the shade

[HIPPYVALLEY]

40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Multiple whiteouts in the past hour. Awesome snow growth too...big dendritic aggregates and not the wet type. Just huge feathers clumped together. 

It’s mostly melting on contact though. Dropped down to 31.5° at the height of it. More wintry day than half of the days in actual winter. 

I’ve certainly had more snow falling than last weeks storm.

[dendrite]

Holy squall. We white. 
 

28.9°

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Are we sure that Sunday is a soaker? Suppose it depends on one's definition of soaker. 

Probably not a soaker; but looks like a solid half inch or so for many 

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Holy squall. We white. 
 

28.9°

Never seen a little under a 1/2" come and go so quickly. Vaporized.

[powderfreak]

Getting crushed at the ski area.  1,500ft just cranking snow and wind.  Might as well be January out there.

[Damage In Tolland]

She’s away from us 

[powderfreak]

Just now, White Rain said:

Wow, that is impressive for the date.

Total is up to 12" at the Lookout Plot just above 3,000ft.  Down here it's so windy it's hard to tell but it's full-on winter.  

The cold is impressive though... MWN is at 4F with a wind chill of -31 .

[NorEastermass128]

I couldn't get those conditions in the heart of winter the past few seasons.  Maybe 12/17/20 was close.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I couldn't get those conditions in the heart of winter the past few seasons.  Maybe 12/17/20 was close.

Ray thinks next winter could be big. 

[dendrite]

Another potent squall. Back down to 32°.

Hopefully a week from now it’s 50 degrees warmer.

[dryslot]

These were from early this morning, Still snowing for many on here so these will get updated.

...Franklin County...
6 SSE Rangeley               8.0 in    0723 AM 04/22   Trained Spotter
2.1 NW Rangeley              7.0 in    0600 AM 04/22   COOP
Rangeley                     6.0 in    0600 AM 04/22   COOP
Temple 1.8 W                 0.5 in    0600 AM 04/22   COCORAHS

...Somerset County...
Jackman                      5.0 in    0700 AM 04/22   COOP
Brighton Plantation 2.1 N    1.0 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS

NH

...Coos County...
Pittsburg 6.1 NE             4.0 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS
Randolph 1.4 NE              3.8 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS
Carroll 4.6 NE               3.6 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS
Northumberland               2.7 in    0640 AM 04/22   COOP
Jefferson 1 W                2.7 in    0700 AM 04/22   COOP
Lancaster                    2.2 in    0751 AM 04/22   Trained Spotter
Pinkham Notch                1.0 in    0400 AM 04/22   COOP
Gorham                       0.8 in    0505 AM 04/22   COOP
1.0 S Berlin                 0.5 in    0728 AM 04/22   COOP

[TalcottWx]

Snowing in Quincy 

[wx2fish]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

These were from early this morning, Still snowing for many on here so these will get updated.

...Franklin County...
6 SSE Rangeley               8.0 in    0723 AM 04/22   Trained Spotter
2.1 NW Rangeley              7.0 in    0600 AM 04/22   COOP
Rangeley                     6.0 in    0600 AM 04/22   COOP
Temple 1.8 W                 0.5 in    0600 AM 04/22   COCORAHS

...Somerset County...
Jackman                      5.0 in    0700 AM 04/22   COOP
Brighton Plantation 2.1 N    1.0 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS

NH

...Coos County...
Pittsburg 6.1 NE             4.0 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS
Randolph 1.4 NE              3.8 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS
Carroll 4.6 NE               3.6 in    0700 AM 04/22   COCORAHS
Northumberland               2.7 in    0640 AM 04/22   COOP
Jefferson 1 W                2.7 in    0700 AM 04/22   COOP
Lancaster                    2.2 in    0751 AM 04/22   Trained Spotter
Pinkham Notch                1.0 in    0400 AM 04/22   COOP
Gorham                       0.8 in    0505 AM 04/22   COOP
1.0 S Berlin                 0.5 in    0728 AM 04/22   COOP

The guy running johns site in pittsburg is at least 8". 4" yesterday and 4" today and still snowing 

[dryslot]

Just now, wx2fish said:

The guy running johns site in pittsburg is at least 8". 4" yesterday and 4" today and still snowing 

My uncle came back from Rangeley late this morning and told me there was 10" when he left and was still snowing too.

[George001]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ray thinks next winter could be big. 

I agree with him on that. Latest enso forecast has the enso moving up to neutral before La Niña re emerges and peaks at roughly -.9 to -1.1 degrees Celsius (borderline weak/mod Nina). I have also read that there was severe volcanic activity last year, which often will have a lag effect where 2+ years out it will lead to extreme winter weather with severe cold and blizzard conditions. In 1816, the year without a summer it supposedly snowed in June in SNE, which is almost unheard of. Due to climate change, it is highly unlikely we will every see anything like that again, but it is very possible that due to the extreme volcanic activity last year the massive amounts of volcanic gases released into the atmosphere acting as a shield against solar radiation, allowing for cooler temps with an extended winter season and several severe blizzards. This extreme volcanic activity+ favorable Enso state has me leaning big as well, but things can change.

[dendrite]

Maybe even snow in July next year?

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow, I don't think I've ever seen MEX go 18 over climatology on a day 7.5 ...

 

KFIT   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/22/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27| WED 28| THU 29|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  33  59| 41  69| 48  56| 42  59| 41  69| 47  76| 50  79| 55 38 61

And honestly just looking over the synoptics on this 12z guidance it's understandable relative to that look, but that's also got to be really stressing against the climate normalization - I mean is that still part of the MOS calculation?   That could 25 over by day, and 15 or more by night when the time actually comes... We've been gettng those kind of breaks from reality over recent years too.

It's harder to get warm departures that high as the summer gets into it tho.  Can you imagine being 25+ on July 20th ?   you'd be a 115 in the shade

I'll take the over anytime. We've been beating guidance for weeks. If the gfs is correct I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 90s pop up somewhere.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'll take the over anytime. We've been beating guidance for weeks. If the gfs is correct I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 90s pop up somewhere.

A lot of that is because we’ve been ahead of climo. Normally we’re just coming out of mud season in the interior so we’re about a month ahead. When MOS is thinking our temps should be lower because of pack and wet ground we’ve actually been bone dry with some early growth. The dryness maximizes our heating and mixing potential. 

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A lot of that is because we’ve been ahead of climo. Normally we’re just coming out of mud season in the interior so we’re about a month ahead. When MOS is thinking our temps should be lower because of pack and wet ground we’ve actually been bone dry with some early growth. The dryness maximizes our heating and mixing potential. 

Never thought of it that way but good insight. Baked climo into it thinks we should be cool/wet on the ground.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe even snow in July next year?

Blizzards on the cape as volcanoes erupt worldwide.

[cut]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

I agree with him on that. Latest enso forecast has the enso moving up to neutral before La Niña re emerges and peaks at roughly -.9 to -1.1 degrees Celsius (borderline weak/mod Nina). I have also read that there was severe volcanic activity last year, which often will have a lag effect where 2+ years out it will lead to extreme winter weather with severe cold and blizzard conditions. In 1816, the year without a summer it supposedly snowed in June in SNE, which is almost unheard of. Due to climate change, it is highly unlikely we will every see anything like that again, but it is very possible that due to the extreme volcanic activity last year the massive amounts of volcanic gases released into the atmosphere acting as a shield against solar radiation, allowing for cooler temps with an extended winter season and several severe blizzards. This extreme volcanic activity+ favorable Enso state has me leaning big as well, but things can change.

Now wait. LAST YEAR. I follow the volcano thing and there are by far more volcanoes going currently - Sufrierre, Etna, Several in Central America and Africa. The ones near the equator are the ones that will effect climate/weather.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, cut said:

Now wait. LAST YEAR. I follow the volcano thing and there are by far more volcanoes going currently - Sufrierre, Etna, Several in Central America and Africa. The ones near the equator are the ones that will effect climate/weather.

Hmm