April 2021 Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tolland finished in 7th place on your list 

11 here

[dendrite]

43 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I got more in April that all of Jan and March combined 

I almost got more in Oct 11 than I did the following met winter (DJF).

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I almost got more in Oct 11 than I did the following met winter (DJF).

Similar here.  I think I was off by an inch

[CoastalWx]

A SE of hubby winter enroute. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Will I get more snow in April than I did in all of Feb and March? WTF is that shit?

It's how places get a high seasonal snowfall average... winter's like this will chip away at the deficits before they finally end.  It's hard to get totally shut out... at some point it was going to snow.

Just like getting big October or November snows.  Like November 2018 was huge... snowier than months later that winter.  Winter chances run October to May, this ain't the mid-Atlantic anymore where if it doesn't happen in the heart of winter it's over, ha.

[powderfreak]

Looks to be more cold air to work with north of the frontal boundary in the next event... and definitely behind the system.  Some legit CAA at all levels.

GFS continues to keep -6C at 850 as the coldest and -3C to -4C at 925F when the precip swings through.  Then has a nice blast of cold air on the backside upslope flow.

Nothing like -10C to BOS-BDL during the last week of April.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I got more snow in one storm than PVD did all winter.

I almost beat BGR with that one storm too.

It almost seems immoral to add that excessive single point winter skewing piece of like metaphysical lie to till 

[mreaves]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks to be more cold air to work with north of the frontal boundary in the next event... and definitely behind the system.  Some legit CAA at all levels.

GFS continues to keep -6C at 850 as the coldest and -3C to -4C at 925F when the precip swings through.  Then has a nice blast of cold air on the backside upslope flow.

Nothing like -10C to BOS-BDL during the last week of April.

Yay. I’m the 14.5 bullseye 

[Typhoon Tip]

Looking over the various ens means and oper. tenors /.. telecons, Thurs trough may be the last body blow ... things seem to favor more benign troughs, N stream contraction polarward leading to more seasonal oscillations after. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looking over the various ens means and oper. tenors /.. telecons, Thurs trough may be the last body blow ... things seem to favor more benign troughs, N stream contraction polarward leading to more seasonal oscillations after. 

Yeah almost time for the cutoff “wheel o ‘rhea” in a low geopotential gradient environment in May. 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah almost time for the cutoff “wheel o ‘rhea” in a low geopotential gradient environment in May. 

Lol, right on schedule -

still waiting on the La Niña spring 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gotta love Mid to Late april Snows, ha

[moneypitmike]

13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just horrible for BGR and PWM.

[jbenedet]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nope ...

... this region of the planet shall remain the only cold hole relative to the CC footprint/ .. global warming for EVER ever ever

Depends on where you are, specifically.

ASH, MHT did hit 60 yesterday. Even DAW managed 58. Not a bad day at all. Today and tomorrow look great actually...

So far, my neck of the woods is likely running slightly AN for the month of April.

[mreaves]

Apparently Stein has move to Vermont.  

https://vtdigger.org/2021/04/18/dry-air-fewer-crops-and-painting-rocks-how-the-drought-is-hitting-vermont/?is_wppwa=true&wpappninja_cache=friendly

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Apparently Stein has move to Vermont.  

https://vtdigger.org/2021/04/18/dry-air-fewer-crops-and-painting-rocks-how-the-drought-is-hitting-vermont/?is_wppwa=true&wpappninja_cache=friendly

Those webbed hands reach far.

[Lava Rock]

9 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gotta love Mid to Late april Snows, ha

hard pass

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Just horrible for BGR and PWM.

Boston got the same as Central Park, I don't think that's happened since 2010.

[CoastalWx]

Strange winter. But now it has passed, and we look to nicer weather.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Strange winter. But now it has passed, and we look to nicer weather.

Not yet

Let it snow through the summer 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Not yet

Let it snow through the summer 

It's over. Time to stick to that seat in the cruiser.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet

Let it snow through the summer 

Enjoy the sweet scents of summer city life.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Enjoy the sweet scents of summer city life.

Nothing like falafel, street meat, and urine combining to tingle your nose.

[rclab]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It almost seems immoral to add that excessive single point winter skewing piece of like metaphysical lie to till 

Good morning Tip. It seems there is little morality when it comes to frozen. All one seems to be left with is rulers and dreams. As always ....

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Depends on where you are, specifically.

ASH, MHT did hit 60 yesterday. Even DAW managed 58. Not a bad day at all. Today and tomorrow look great actually...

So far, my neck of the woods is likely running slightly AN for the month of April.

Yeah we didn't do terribly yesterday and you ... well, ' I ' .. .could really tell the diurnal 'stretching effect' is now here. 

It's not a real thing, but it's something I notice. When the days lengthen temperature may plateau ~ 12 to 2pm in atmospheres that are really cool profiled and not very supportive of mild ... just by thermal soundings at dawn alone on those days.  But we have the sun! 

It's almost like it wants to do the winter high timing, where the high is 11:45 am ...and then the afternoon holds or falls but seldom rises without some other synoptic means. Between now and perhaps the first couple of weeks of September the sun is holding it up. The temp is trying to ruin summer and depress people ( haha) but is in a tug-o-war in that plateauing thing.  But insolation finally wins and lags the temp up for another 3 or 4 somewhere 3:30 to 5 pm.

Gives the allusion of protracting the afternoon that way.  Perhaps more an affect, rather than an effect of longer daylight but .. concomitantly, longer light still means more heating -so ... 

On November 21st, without synoptic intervention or some other offset, the sun alone is done by 11:40 am... but it's closer to 5:30 pm in May 21... somethin' like that.

And word on the above normal - man.. I posted in consternation over that subject matter just yesterday, providing NASA's March global temperature anomaly publication/annotation to help elucidate the weird disconnect that is occurring between the actual experience of March and April so far, compared to what is being empirically measured in the temperatures?  It's amazing really ...  April is flaring in with +2 to + 3 at all four climo sites around SNE for April, while all I can remember for some reason is being annoyed by cool wind on the nape and having to ( grudgingly enjoy) live through a 1:7 year type April snow event.  It's like an inferno spring without feeling any warmth.  interesting

 

[tamarack]

15 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lol, Worcester doubling up on Bangor snow totals.  

The 4 Maine sites averaging 70% of norms, and without CAR it's only 56%.  Have to go below the Mason-Dixon line to find lower percentages.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Looks to be more cold air to work with north of the frontal boundary in the next event... and definitely behind the system.  Some legit CAA at all levels.

GFS continues to keep -6C at 850 as the coldest and -3C to -4C at 925F when the precip swings through.  Then has a nice blast of cold air on the backside upslope flow.

Nothing like -10C to BOS-BDL during the last week of April.

Would be a nasty drive to Pittston Farm, 10 miles west from the north end of Moosehead, Thursday afternoon (Men's retreat Thurs-Sat) if that verifies.  For once I'm rooting against snow.  

[Typhoon Tip]

... But, perhaps that's about the change.

A couple months ago I speculated on a warmer than normal spring.  At the time I stated three plausible factors/or questions contributing:

-- La Nina climatology

-- HC expansion hypothesis ( could go either way ...)

-- Whether or not these two factors would constructively or destructively interfere.

In purer La Nina:  ... you know, when I go back and just look at the coarse .. yet real monthly ENSO means going back to 1950s, https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php, and noting/comparing them to very warm spring/spring synoptic warm events over eastern N/A ...  -ENSO appear to correlate there just based on a cursory scan of the data.  -.5 to -2.0 ENSO in the 3.4 .. and adjoining basin notwithstanding, but some notables1976 April... 2012 April ...just to name a couple. 

1976 was insane!  The UML station at me alma mater put up a five day heat wave of 90 to 96 ... and looking through the data at the location, it wasn't a fluke episode as an island to the season. They were 70s if not 80s carrying on and on, and just seem to sort of seamlessly fade into mid summer that year. 

This year was similar in the ENSO spectrum... yet it doesn't seem sensibly to be doing the same sort of thing.  Obviously it has not been 90 - ha. 

I think this is an HC spring again ... much like the dominant signal over the past 7 years... with disruptive early warmth fleeting 'momentary synoptics' not sustained, then failing to episodic or prolonged -NAO / .. blocking periods that regressed April and May at times.  It would appear diurnal minimums skew the temps higher, and confuse/obfuscate the truth of what's going on.  HC doesn't mean warm heights per se... the energy, in winter, is mechanical as fast flow; then when that seasonally terminates, the atmosphere responds during that d(gradient) period time ...with blocking... 'continental folding -over' causing super-synoptic 'tucking' over east N/A mid latitudes.. You have to almost understand non-linear wave mechanics as an emergent tendency more so than an actual visible weather chart footprint.  Tendencies are why we get NE flow down the coastal plain from Maine - that's an example of in situ tendencies that 'favor' an outcome, and given any excuse to realize... the tendency dominates.  I think when the Pacific is averaging a faster flow and then it tries to abate ... as it passes through some velocity/mass-balancing phase ...we pass through tendency for trough evolution over Ontario-Quebec and tucking E flow into the M/A...   Think of it as an invisible Kelvin Hemholtz wave where the atmosphere is trying to get to that structure -

Intensely hypothetic and speculative but I think it's an intriguing idea...   "Hadley Cell expansion and plausible effects on hemispheric basal mode circulation during transition season" - that's the title of your paper. 

That all said... I surmise "IF" there is value to that - as in real .. heh - I think it is "partially" masking the ENSO spring climo. 

The 00z GFS offers 70s and 80s D8 to 11 .. 12 as obviously highly negotiable ... The 06z was even more impressive, with 90 suggested D10.5!  ... The GEFs -based telecon spread neutralizes the NAO ( as has been the case for days in the nightly computations) ...while the PNA at least transiently demos a concerted dip to -2 ST out there D 7 -14.  Meanwhile, the EPS spatial/synoptic mean is more like the GEFs in that regard, signaling that the operational Euro may be over-zealous with its conserving and/or introducing additional curved trajectories to the look from D7 to 12.  I suspect that D10 meandering low is not going to be there - despite the 1980s in older poster's thoughts and nostalgia for New England springs... it's not the quite there because of the latter, but by convention of the Euro tending to slow and anchor flows an operational bias. 

I think all these deterministic methods suggest a significant warm up is out there to end the month.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sweaty students returning.  That’s something I didn’t miss

[Hoth]

26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Sweaty students returning.  That’s something I didn’t miss

The miasma of BO and Axe hanging so heavy in the air you can taste it...Get those windows open!