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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Today is eerily similar to the days leading up to the April Fools 1997 storm: sunny and 61° F with some puffy cumulus clouds. Hard to believe I may be digging out from 1-2' of snow within 48 hours. Clown maps are overdone, especially in the valleys, but up here above 2.2K they may not be so far fetched...

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS clown probably overdone.   :lol:

Yeah probably...but damn, some of those soundings are cold. Like 32F at the sfc and clearly like -2C or -3C not far off the deck. So high terrain would get obliterated that run. A lot of that would fall at 10 to 1 or greater. The shoulders would be more like 6 to 1 prob. That said, I doubt the GFS sokution actually evolves that way in reality.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah probably...but damn, some of those soundings are cold. Like 32F at the sfc and clearly like -2C or -3C not far off the deck. So high terrain would get obliterated that run. A lot of that would fall at 10 to 1 or greater. The shoulders would be more like 6 to 1 prob. That said, I doubt the GFS sokution actually evolves that way in reality.

You think I could blue snow down in Greenfield in a setup like that?  My hood is only 300'-400' el. 

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1 minute ago, wxmanmitch said:

Today is eerily similar to the days leading up to the April Fools 1997 storm: sunny and 61° F with some puffy cumulus clouds. Hard to believe I may be digging out from 1-2' of snow within 48 hours. Clown maps are overdone, especially in the valleys, but up here above 2.2K they may not be so far fetched...

There would have to be a pretty big shift on model guidance for you to avoid getting at least a foot IMHO. There's a legit chance you get 2+ feet.

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