STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It won’t take much to convey if the 12z suite continues towards the NAM. If there is caving towards the NAM idea, it’s game on for most. Still Hard to take it seriously...but with this run continuing the crushing...it gets a lil harder to blow it off each cycle. And if the other majors continue/or move towards it...then oh boy. The nam did budge NW a bit more than I first thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Nope, GYX has 2-3" here and i'm expecting maybe half of that if anything at all. GYX' low/middle/highest for Farmington is 0/2/3. Only need 1.9" or more to slip past 05-06 and into 3rd lowest snow season. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: The nam did budge NW a bit more than I first thought Ya saw that. It’s an incredible long shot for sure this time of year. Not buying in at all. But hey, if nothing else, at least it’s made things interesting for a few days at a boring time of year for weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: GYX' low/middle/highest for Farmington is 0/2/3. Only need 1.9" or more to slip past 05-06 and into 3rd lowest snow season. wow Even if we maxed out the clown Nam maps we would still fall short of our lowest seasonal snow total in the last 20 yrs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 NAM really pivots the fronto into the Berks, but does have that weenie band area from near Kevin and SW of him in CT to the Berks from a back bent mid level WF. However, it would really need to be a narrow area of deep lift and RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya saw that. It’s an incredible long shot for sure this time of year. Not buying in at all. But hey, if nothing else, at least it’s made things interesting for a few days at a boring time of year for weather. But Boring weather in the spring is what we want. 60s and sunny, over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Where was this in Feb and March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 CT River flooding on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Where was this in Feb and March? Seeing the sights around Texas and Colorado. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM really pivots the fronto into the Berks, but does have that weenie band area from near Kevin and SW of him in CT to the Berks from a back bent mid level WF. However, it would really need to be a narrow area of deep lift and RH. Here is IJD...not too terrible looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM really pivots the fronto into the Berks, but does have that weenie band area from near Kevin and SW of him in CT to the Berks from a back bent mid level WF. However, it would really need to be a narrow area of deep lift and RH. We backbent over the table in woodshed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Some hefty totals near Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 40 minutes ago, dendrite said: Bigger shift on the 3k. Well it was mildly amusing for a while for those on the edge. Pete ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Where was this in Feb and March? Same place this one will be, In SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Some hefty totals near Pete 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Well it was mildly amusing for a while for those on the edge. Pete ftw. Been a lock for Pete for days, Nothing will change there, He fully expects to get crushed.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 RGEM actually tickled a little SE. Pretty good look for ORH county on that run (along with the usual Monad/S VT/N Berks region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam, Looked like it was a few ticks NW at the surface from 06z. 06z 12z Either way that’s snow right to the cape, the 0 line is 300 miles SE of Nantucket. North is not necessarily bad, as the models with a more tucked in and north low have stronger dynamics as well, so you get a stronger clash of warming Atlantic air vs cold Canadian air being drawn in via a rapidly bombing low. The real issue here is it’s the NAM outside 24 hours and is likely wrong. A euro solution makes more sense to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Here is IJD...not too terrible looking Yeah, I don't know. This isn't mid winter. Everything needs to go right for something more than an inch or two in low spots. Hell even an inch or two in low spots isn't easy this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 RGEM has that weenie band, but more towards Dave and the Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah, I don't know. This isn't mid winter. Everything needs to go right for something more than an inch or two in low spots. Hell even an inch or two in low spots isn't easy this time of year. While I would love to see a few to several inches outside of the hills (and not totally ruling it out yet) I do think it's going to be quite difficult unless it can rip for a good period of time...I do at least think there is room for most to see rain to flip to snow with some bursts of heavier snow but accumulations will be tough...especially given how crappy the ratios should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: This kinda of reminds me of a setup that I think was kinda similar and not really that long ago...maybe March? The NAM was pretty insistent that H5 would drop to our south while the globals were like right over us...ultimately the globals won. I guess we just need some reason to believe that H5 will become more elongated and pop to our south. I think at least the NW hills could get pounded pretty good. Majority of us still probably see some wintry precip given how cold low-levels are. Yup ... but was that March? shit - couldn't remember when exactly, but I cited this exact one ... thinking it was back in February. But I elaborated the NAM tends to a W-N bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours. Either attribute, both track specifics, or amplitude, could atone for the NAM being so robust, presently. So, I'm skeptical ... Will pointed out a 'tick' - let's not ignore that? not that anyone is...just sayn'... Because the NAM will do that - attempt to keep you in the game with easily ignore-able ticks, that guide you right to a destination of the only thing blue is your ballz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 37 minutes ago, dryslot said: Even if we maxed out the clown Nam maps we would still fall short of our lowest seasonal snow total in the last 20 yrs here. I see 50.1" for your 15-16 entry on the snow table (1.9" more than I had), thus only 4.5" away. LEW has only 35" for 05-06 though their records were beginning to be wonky after 2002. (GYX recorded 50.4" for 0-06.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Meanwhile, just another stunning day here in W MA. 64° under blue sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup ... but was that March? shit - couldn't remember when exactly, but I sited this exact one ... thinking it was back in February. But I elaborated the NAM tends to a W-N bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours. Either attribute, both track specifics, or amplitude, could atone for the NAM being so robust. So, I'm skeptical ... Will pointed out a 'tick' - let's not ignore that? not that anyone is...just sayn'... Because it'll do that - attempt to keep you in the game with easily ignorable ticks the guide you right to a destination of the only thing blue is your ballz ahhh yeah that might have been February. I guess we just have to ask ourselves, what needs to happen for the shortwave to become elongated like that and what needs to happen to drop the ULL to close off either over or south of Long Island? but speaking of that event I think we were dealing with a SLP which was more elongated and never became tightly wrapped...this situation it looks like that happens. While the 12z run is still just south of our area with the SLP (which is a good thing when you consider the likelihood of this system becoming vertically stacked) the 12z run of the NAM isn't as closed off the H5 as some of the previous runs...it keeps it a bit more elongated. Some of the previous runs popped a tight contour just south of Long Island. Given the high baroclinicity that is going to be in place it really won't take much adjustment south for the SLP to really explode. Is that likely? Probably not but given the potential that would unfold should that happen...it shouldn't be totally written off, even if the percent probability is like 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Meanwhile, just another stunning day here in W MA. 64° under blue sky. same at the other end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Meanwhile, just another stunning day here in W MA. 64° under blue sky. The tenor of the season continues... whether Friday douses that flame is uncertain for now...but likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, tamarack said: I see 50.1" for your 15-16 entry on the snow table (1.9" more than I had), thus only 4.5" away. LEW has only 35" for 05-06 though their records were beginning to be wonky after 2002. (GYX recorded 50.4" for 0-06.) I only started recording in 06-07, There is a lot of missing data from years past for LEW, At 5:1 it would be close if the Nam is correct to 15-16. https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?me4566 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It didn't move a whole lot verbatim. I'm looking now. Still goes into SNE. It maybe moved a bit east, but H5 goes over your fanny practically. You need that off the coast of LI IMO for anything siggy. I was trying to tell weenies on FB that...he was drooling over this H5 map with the low over N CT, saying it was perfect. I'm like, you need that under LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: same at the other end Rear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The tenor of the season continues... whether Friday douses that flame is uncertain for now...but likely I don’t see how we can miss a good soaking at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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