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April 2021 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro moved a bit ESE at 0z and now 6z nam moves a tad toward 0z euro (But still Is ESE with that 925 low )

That 925 low is tight on guidance and nam has it do a cyclonic loop over And around MVY Friday  (and destroys Tolland to Orh to MHT) 

0z euro has 925 low go from Newport RI to E Providence before ticking East Friday 

If 12z euro can tick that 925 low A tad SE (like it trended ) then I like where we stand ...in particular for Tolland to MHT . 

Southern VT the spot? Do you guys think the upslope high elevation regions have a shot at 16-18+? Only wanna make the drive if theres a shot at like 16-24" 8-12 isnt really chase worthy right now. 

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6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Southern VT the spot? Do you guys think the upslope high elevation regions have a shot at 16-18+? Only wanna make the drive if theres a shot at like 16-24" 8-12 isnt really chase worthy right now. 

Still evolving . S VT near 2k  is Still looking to me like the best shot to see a foot . 
 

I wish Monads had more spots 1500-2k to choose from 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I will say it was surprising to see the big move on the Euro. That poor model. If we see it again at 6 and 12z .. it’s real.. if not this will be a huge US model failure 

It didn't move a whole lot verbatim. I'm looking now. Still goes into SNE. It maybe moved a bit east, but H5 goes over your fanny practically. You need that off the coast of LI IMO for anything siggy.

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31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m thinking the Noyes map might be a little overdone, but plausible.  3” looks a bit high for me, nevermind the 6”.   But maybe

I'll probably get robbed. Maybe a few mangled flakes if I stayed up late enough. Kinda hoping for a Stein fail here at least. Would help with green up.

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Just now, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I'll probably get robbed. Maybe a few mangled flakes if I stayed up late enough. Kinda hoping for a Stein fail here at least. Would help with green up.

As MPM noted yesterday, the greenup is really taking off in many areas now.  I noticed it over the weekend when in the Brookfields

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Short memories with the NAM ... ?  Lest we forget that it hammered everyone east of the Hudson for multiple runs back in Feb, when other guidance like the UKMET was pancaked and out to sea with cirrus streaks.   That set up did not hammer the regions.

Big phantom event way too far NW - I warned the NAM does this with NW bias/amplitude beyond 48 hours back then, too ... Inevitably, it left the devoted suckers sitting alone in the cafe staring at the door, wondering if she'll show ...

Seeking pros: This is different pattern-wise, however.  The flow is slower around this thing, ..the wave-lengths smaller... It's a more self-determining/mechanically conserved "dynamics" storm - drilling down from above also has its deterministic headaches.  The baroclinic canvas is almost non-existent in the lower troposphere at event entry, but a crucial feed of cold air ( NAM ) injects at critical timing, as the 500 mb passes underneath SNE. This induces frontogenics ..probably 850 to 600 mb range...  which the NAM uses to materialize UVM ... So, upward vertical motion hydrostatically causes downward heights, and that machinery drills its way down - drawing the freezing level with it.  For snow ...obviously first to the elevations ...then that looks bit like flashing over to parachutes. I can't throw that behavior away in and of itself, because I've seen that happen in early May.

It may be worth it to note, these top-->down events tend not to need 32 to snow below... When height falls take place and freezing level sags deeply under the UVM regions.. the cat-paw temp is probably 40 F believe it or not. Flip to slush blats is 37.6 or something, and it's all snow at 35/36 F after dark.

I must admit, it's been pretty anchored across the last 5 consecutive cycles in the NAM, with less variance than any other guidance across that span of runs.  Wild speculation but maybe the slower field and shorter wave lengths, and more mechanics not already blown open at the planetary scale but conserving inward to the 'self-centered' low ( haha)... maybe this sort of circumstance et al is just more the NAM's wheelhouse. 

Euro was yeah ...a tad better at 500mb ...if by attitude alone.  Problem is.. obviously this situation being spring marginal incarnate ... has very low tolerances for whether it's cat pawing or flips over to actual aggregates.  It may seem out of left field to mention but, 1992 Dec was a wonderful example excessively narrow tolerance razor edging cat paws vs 1/4 mi vis parachutes.

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