ineedsnow Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Lock the 9z SREFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Nice day today though. Already up to 52°and mostly sunny. It is really about this and not some nail biting sleepless nights over a current Cali like drought: “A drought reflects a period of time with below-normal precipitation. No one knows what will happen over the next few months, so now is the time to take steps to manage our water use as we move into the warmer weather,” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it's going to need to trend back south to make it interesting in SNE outside of northern Berkshires. But this could just keep trending north. It's been a pretty hard trend since 12z yesterday. Is that closed off energy across the Inter-mountain West playing a big role in this? Seems like differences in how models are handling that feature are also impacting the evolution of our H5 energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It is really about this and not some nail biting sleepless nights over a current Cali like drought: “A drought reflects a period of time with below-normal precipitation. No one knows what will happen over the next few months, so now is the time to take steps to manage our water use as we move into the warmer weather,” I love dry weather I should probably live in Taos. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I love dry weather I should probably live in Taos. Me too. Nothing like 70s and dry warmth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I really like that zone. You know it was coming when Phin went to Florida. But that area is a climo favored late-season storm spot, not that climo seems to mean anything anymore... Me want and me need 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 That dude at 1500' in Jackson might be in a good spot if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Me want and me need Me miss another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Cape cod Canal cutter congrats Dendrite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Yeah lets flatten come chicken coops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 That is some impressive dynamic cooling going on the NAM...even a bit moreso than what has been advertised. Looks slightly south too with everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Yeah baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 ooo nammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Mid level lows still argue Berks on N and E. Cannot dry out the DGZ in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Little nuke on the NAM...if we keep the trend of tightening up the circulation, then it would get pretty interesting again for interior SNE. There's a pretty decent 3-6 hour period on that run for like ORH back to W MA and W CT before the SGZ starts to dry out a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Little nuke on the NAM...if we keep the trend of tightening up the circulation, then it would get pretty interesting again for interior SNE. There's a pretty decent 3-6 hour period on that run for like ORH back to W MA and W CT before the SGZ starts to dry out a bit. Yeah that hits western CT good into the Berks and clipping hubby on north. Just north of H7. Hopefully that can tick SE some. We know Kevin deep down wants it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 The last time we had snow on April 15-16 we had a monster severe weather outbreak a month later...bring it on!!!! 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Looks like core of the cold in like -6C to -7C at 850 and -1C to -2C at 925...well during the event anyways. 925 actually colder Friday evening. You also have nearly 310K of theta-e air (at 850) being drawn into the storm...that's going to be some serious moisture being thrown into the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Chase time in mid April?? One last hurrah! Let’s gooo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 And the ensuing snow map, beginning to wonder if I simply end up too far west for anything really meaningful in the Catskills: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Hopefully occlusion doesn't occur too quickly here. Man...if we can get this south just a bit more given the baroclinic zone there would be room for rapid cyclogeneis south of Long Island. Let's pop 60's the next few days so leaf out can explode and then let's get a region wide 10-20'' Thursday night/Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: Hopefully occlusion doesn't occur too quickly here. Man...if we can get this south just a bit more given the baroclinic zone there would be room for rapid cyclogeneis south of Long Island. Let's pop 60's the next few days so leaf out can explode and then let's get a region wide 10-20'' Thursday night/Friday. It would probably be a historic storm if everything was south/southeast about 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It would probably be a historic storm if everything was south/southeast about 100 miles. The ingredients are certainly there for that to happen...just not sure we end up seeing this trend that far south/southeast...but there is room to at least head in that direction. some big differences between the NAM/GFS and the handling of all that energy within the Inter-mountain West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 I hope it does go SE. otherwise it’s just Pickles reporting from some Inn at Dublin NH with a 55yr old woman. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: The ingredients are certainly there for that to happen...just not sure we end up seeing this trend that far south/southeast...but there is room to at least head in that direction. some big differences between the NAM/GFS and the handling of all that energy within the Inter-mountain West What are your feelings about areas further west of the river, specifically into the lower elevations of the Catskills/Poconos; are we probably out of the game save for higher elevations? Beginning to think it’ll be much more elevation driven here than anywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Chase time in mid April?? One last hurrah! Let’s gooo. Seriously chasing in April ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that hits western CT good into the Berks and clipping hubby on north. Just north of H7. Hopefully that can tick SE some. We know Kevin deep down wants it. I def want snow but this setup is not good for most of SNE. Berks to NW Hills maybe. Rest of region rainer unless we see Mesenger tickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Anxiously awaiting George's updated forecast. 50-75" regionwide lolli's to 100" ?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Not sure what's been said/ covered re the runs and this interesting spring anomaly but ... just on an island that NAM (12z ) solution would snow prolifically for a 4-6 hour period West of 495 and N of south coast of CT, likely above QPF in that general synoptic layout/evolution it carries through. Didn't like the 00z Euro backpeddling on surface reflection ( coherence..) such that it did, but the EPS mean was impressive in the mid level height falls as that thing pass S so will to wait on the Euro oper another cycle. Otherwise, devoted thread time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: What are your feelings about areas further west of the river, specifically into the lower elevations of the Catskills/Poconos; are we probably out of the game save for higher elevations? Beginning to think it’ll be much more elevation driven here than anywhere else This time of year the higher elevations are usually always favored, however, I think this setup there is alot favoring the potential for snow at all elevations. For one, the models are indicating a pretty cold low-level airmass and looks like we will be seeing surface winds with a predominately northerly component. Also, the time of day could be a huge positive as looks like the majority of the processes at play occurring overnight Thursday and even moving through Friday morning...the processes surrounding dynamic cooling, drawing down colder air from up north, and the quite cold low-level airmass...all should pay in favor to keep a favorable thermo profile even at the lowest elevations. The biggest overall concern may be more dry air into the DGZ or where the strongest lift occurs and where the H5 tracks/closes off. But if this all happens in a favorable location...elevation I don't think plays much of a role...but of course the greatest of accumulations would probably occur with higher elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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